tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86607377969232487852023-12-03T18:53:38.573-05:00Matt's Sports MusingsSports opinions from a guy who has plenty of them.Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.comBlogger560125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-29333776310889480722021-10-11T19:16:00.001-04:002021-10-11T19:16:11.536-04:002021-22 NHL Season Predictions<p> For the first time in three years, the NHL is going to have a full 82 game regular season (we hope). There will (hopefully) be an Olympic break in the middle, but this season will be more like what everyone was used to unlike the COVID disrupted messes the last two seasons were. Does that mean normal service resumes? It's the NHL, there's always chaos somewhere along the way. Perhaps that comes from an expansion team being good and everyone expecting it this time. Here are the sure to be wrong 2021-22 NHL season predictions:</p><p><b>Metropolitan Division:</b></p><p>1. NY Islanders</p><p>2. Carolina</p><p>3. Pittsburgh</p><p>4. Washington</p><p>5. Philadelphia</p><p>6. NY Rangers</p><p>7. New Jersey</p><p>8. Columbus</p><p>The top six teams in this division could honestly finish in any order, and any order of them would make sense. There isn't much separating them, so the most important question to ask is "what are you sure of?" In this case, the Islanders are as sure a thing as any team in this flawed division, even with a style not conducive for regular season form and a season opening 13 game road trip. Carolina has as deep a group of forwards as any, but their defense and goaltending could be notably worse than last year. Both the Penguins and Capitals have a feel of the end being near, but it's hard to ever accurately predict when that will happen, and it's hard to imagine it happening this year. Philadelphia may need too many things to go right to make the postseason with questions on all three levels of their team and the Rangers would be higher up this list if they didn't lose their minds because of Tom Wilson and the Islanders forcing them to get players that punch better than they score. New Jersey is getting better, but with a goaltender that is hesitant to get vaccinated and a forward group that might be too young, they're at least a year away and the Blue Jackets will always be annoying, but their rebuild is just beginning.</p><p><b>Atlantic Division:</b></p><p>1. Toronto</p><p>2. Tampa</p><p>3. Boston</p><p>4. Florida</p><p>5. Montreal</p><p>6. Detroit</p><p>7. Ottawa</p><p>8. Buffalo</p><p>The gap between team one and four in this division is much smaller than the difference between four and five, such is the gulf between the two halves of the division. One to four could also finish in any order, and any order would likely be correct. Toronto nudges ahead of Tampa based on a need to prove something in the regular season while Tampa's shallower depth, Olympic obligations and a sense that the regular season doesn't matter much to them anymore holds them back. Boston is aging, and their depth is not anywhere near their peak, but that top line is too good to have them fall any further. Florida has so much upside because of their depth and offensive potential, but there's still a sense of a group needing to learn how to win. Montreal had their magical Cup run and are paying for it with the absences of Carey Price and Shea Weber, and their depth has not gotten any better after a bunch of changes this offseason, some of which felt unnecessary. Detroit has young talent beginning to emerge which puts them on top of the bottom pile ahead of Ottawa who will be annoying even as the Brady Tkachuk saga flies them too close to the sun and the Sabres... may the lottery odds be forever in your favor.</p><p><b>Central Division:</b></p><p>1. Colorado*</p><p>2. Minnesota</p><p>3. Winnipeg</p><p>4. Dallas</p><p>5. St. Louis</p><p>6. Chicago</p><p>7. Nashville</p><p>8. Arizona</p><p>Joe Sakic and his team have built a machine in Colorado, one that has become a regular season buzzsaw yet has fallen short too often in the playoffs. Such are the questions this year for a team that is slightly thinner and needs to get over the hump come May, but none of those should be a problem in the regular season. They are likely to win the President's Trophy again. Minnesota has a looming cap crunch, but keeps Kirill Kaprizov happy and thus will be a fun team to watch once again. Winnipeg has more defensive depth to go in front of a Vezina caliber goaltender which should steady their ship. Dallas and St. Louis are starting to feel long in the tooth, but both have excuses for why last year for both was underwhelming. Dallas in particular feels like a team being slept on after everything that could go wrong last year having gone wrong. Both should feel relatively secure in playoff positions. Chicago made big moves in the hopes of keeping the Kane/Toews window open, but they'll need another Marc-Andre Fleury Vezina season in order to punch above their weight, and behind that Chicago defense it doesn't seem likely. The Predators are a team that feels a losing streak away from starting a major rebuild, while the Coyotes are in the midst of one and are going to bottom out with eyes on the future.</p><p><b>Pacific Division:</b></p><p>1. Vegas</p><p>2. Edmonton</p><p>3. Seattle</p><p>4. Calgary</p><p>5. Los Angeles</p><p>6. Vancouver</p><p>7. San Jose</p><p>8. Anaheim</p><p>Vegas, like Colorado, is waiting for a playoff push over the hump that hasn't come since their inaugural season. Each exit has been painful, and there is a sense that there isn't unlimited time to win with this group. As for the regular season, it shouldn't be an issue where they are head and shoulders the best team in it. Edmonton is deeper at forward than they've ever been in the McDavid/Draisaitl era, and even with questions on the blueline and in goal, the overwhelming might of their forwards should make the playoffs a sure thing. Yes, the Seattle Kraken are in line for a playoff spot in year one, and that is because they have solid depth, particularly on the blue line, and plus goaltending to go with it, even if the top end scoring talent isn't there. It helps that every other team has major questions too. Calgary would be wise to fully embrace Darryl Sutter's brand, and it seems like they have, but it's not 2012 anymore. The Kings hope it's 2012 with a playoff run in their future, and they seem to expect one with some of the signings they've made, but this feels like a team trying to win perhaps a little too early. Vancouver is like Edmonton lite with great forward depth and an extremely questionable blue line, and those questions might be too much to bear. The Sharks are in limbo as bad, long-term contracts run their course, and the Ducks continue to fail to decide whether to stick or twist with a rebuild.</p><p><b>Playoffs:</b></p><p><b>East:</b></p><p>(A1) Toronto over (WC2) Washington in 7</p><p>(A2) Tampa over (A3) Boston in 6</p><p>(M1) NY Islanders over (WC1) Florida in 7</p><p>(M2) Carolina over (M3) Pittsburgh in 6</p><p>(A2) Tampa over (A1) Toronto in 6</p><p>(M2) Carolina over (M1) NY Islanders in 7</p><p>(A2) Tampa over (M2) Carolina in 6</p><p><b>West:</b></p><p>(P1) Vegas over (WC2) St. Louis in 5</p><p>(P2) Edmonton over (P3) Seattle in 5</p><p>(C1) Colorado over (WC1) Dallas in 5</p><p>(C3) Winnipeg over (C2) Minnesota in 7</p><p>(P1) Vegas over (P2) Edmonton in 6</p><p>(C1) Colorado over (C3) Winnipeg in 5</p><p>(C1) Colorado over (P1) Vegas in 7</p><p><b>2022 Stanley Cup Final:</b></p><p><b>Colorado </b>over Tampa in 7</p><p><b>Awards:</b></p><p>Hart: Connor McDavid (EDM)</p><p>Art Ross: Leon Draisaitl (EDM)</p><p>Calder: Moritz Seider (DET)</p><p>Norris: Cale Makar (COL)</p><p>Vezina: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)</p><p>Selke: Mark Stone (VGK)</p><p>Rocket Richard: Auston Matthews (TOR)</p><p>Jack Adams: Dave Hakstol (SEA)</p><p>Apologies to all who I have inevitably jinxed. Happy hockey season!</p><p><br /></p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-62461835110283569932021-09-09T19:14:00.001-04:002021-09-09T19:14:14.862-04:002021 NFL Season Predictions<p>The 2020 NFL season was a football season in the most literal sense, but it didn't feel like much of one. Every game felt more like an obligation than a celebration; a box checked off rather than what a NFL game should be. For me, that might have everything to do with the Jaguars openly tanking by the middle of October, but for everyone else, the pandemic really did take its toll, and that was before a game was played on a Wednesday afternoon because of the Rockefeller Center tree lighting ceremony.</p><p>COVID-19 hasn't gone away by any means, but this season will look and feel more like what we knew before March 2020, even if there are now 17 regular season games and the seven team playoff format won't feel so out of place, particularly when the Nickelodeon feed makes a return. On the field, for as much as things are changing, Tom Brady is still a defending Super Bowl champion and very few teams seem poised to break into the elite cadre than the past. But, as this particular slice of an outdated Blogspot blog will remind us all, I can say that in September and not look foolish, but that changes quick. Without further ado, the 2021 sure to be wrong by Week 5 NFL season predictions...</p><p><b>AFC East:</b></p><p>1. Buffalo 13-4</p><p>2. New England 10-7</p><p>3. Miami 8-9</p><p>4. NY Jets 5-12</p><p>Josh Allen spent all of 2020 proving every doubter wrong, and as he elevated his game, the Bills went from a team with potential to a Super Bowl contender. They very much are again, and they can definitely challenge the Chiefs for home field advantage. New England entered a new era awkwardly last season, but with Mac Jones and particularly their whole host of 2020 opt outs back, the Patriots will get back to something close to what we knew them as before, if a lesser version of it. Tua Tagovailoa has to get on the Josh Allen improvement plan before a promising program in Miami takes the next step towards the postseason, especially without the Fitzmagic crutch around. Zach Wilson might finally be the QB that takes the Jets out of purgatory, and Robert Saleh absolutely has the goods to take this team above mediocrity, but with some key injuries and bad luck already, that's likely not happening this year.</p><p><b>NFC East:</b></p><p>1. Dallas 9-8</p><p>2. Washington 8-9</p><p>3. Philadelphia 5-12</p><p>4. NY Giants 5-12</p><p>Whenever you need a laugh in these difficult times of ours, remember that the NFC East exists. It may well exist now so we have something to consistently laugh at that always ends up overexposed and underdelivers, particularly as we remember how the team with no name won the division last year. Dallas would have won it if Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, and with him back and healthy, that should be enough to lift the Cowboys over a Washington team that is Ron Rivera to its core: scrappy, stout but lacking a certain offensive finesse. They may have the defensive player of the year but the offense even with a rising Antonio Gibson just doesn't seem to have the tools yet. Both the Eagles and Giants are a mess, one about to commence a house cleaning and the other that feels on the verge of it but never actually wants to pull the trigger. Both have lopsided, poorly constructed rosters and QB questions that are not going to be answered any time soon.</p><p><b>AFC North:</b></p><p>1. Cleveland 12-5</p><p>2. Pittsburgh 10-7</p><p>3. Baltimore 9-8</p><p>4. Cincinnati 5-12</p><p>Procrastinating right until a few hours before the first game of the season to write this piece does have unusual benefits: the Ravens had even more potentially debilitating injuries between planning out this piece and then writing it. The Browns should have beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs last year but fell short, however these obviously are not the same old Browns. This is a well constructed and well coached team in every facet, which hasn't been said about the Browns since the late 1980's. In a league with parity like the NFL, it's more appropriate to see what team has fewer flaws compared to bigger strengths and in this competitive division, the Browns have the fewest flaws. In what is likely to be Ben Roethlisberger's swan song, the Steelers might actually attempt to run a modern offense, which should get what was a horrific unit last season out of the muck, at least somewhat. The Ravens injuries at the running back position are devastating and likely put even more pressure on Lamar Jackson, who could win the MVP race by simply being himself in these circumstances, but perhaps he may be asked to do too much now especially as that offense needs quality running backs in the worst way. The Bengals need to show signs of life where there haven't been any in this current iteration, and none seem forthcoming.</p><p><b>NFC North:</b></p><p>1. Green Bay 13-4</p><p>2. Chicago 7-10</p><p>3. Minnesota 7-10</p><p>4. Detroit 4-13</p><p>Whatever you think of the offseason drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers, and whatever you think of his Jeopardy hosting prowess, this season very much has a "Last Dance" type feeling about it. That could serve this immensely talented team rather well, particularly come January. Bears fans will spend the season wondering when Matt Nagy will do the right thing and put in Justin Fields, Vikings fans will spend the season wondering when Kirk Cousins will stop putting his entire team at risk of a deadly virus in addition to putting them at risk for losing even more than usual, and Lions fans will wonder if the 15th new direction since they last won a playoff game three decades ago will be the one that sticks. </p><p><b>AFC South:</b></p><p>1. Tennessee 10-7</p><p>2. Indianapolis 8-9</p><p>3. Jacksonville 6-11</p><p>4. Houston 3-14</p><p>The AFC South has been fairly straightforward for the last few years and that should continue here. Tennessee is the most talented team particularly because of their offense, though their defense is a shell of what it once was, and because the division is filled with varying levels of teams in crisis or transition, they will be the favorites by default but likely nothing more than that. The Colts are relying on Carson Wentz to find the potential from his past with his old offensive coordinator, but bizarre injuries and reluctance to take a perfectly safe vaccine are bad signs. With any other QB, including Philip Rivers, they might be favorites over the Titans. Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are going to lose a lot more than they are used to this season with the Jaguars, but nobody can deny that there is potential with this franchise that hasn't existed in years, it just might not fully actualize until the future. And for the Texans, the less said about their mess, the better.</p><p><b>NFC South:</b></p><p>1. Tampa Bay 13-4</p><p>2. New Orleans 10-7</p><p>3. Carolina 7-10</p><p>4. Atlanta 6-11</p><p>Tom Brady is voodoo, isn't he? Is Tom Brady's magic running off on Tampa Bay or is the Tampa Bay sports magic running off on him? It's probably a bit of both. It helps that his team is supremely talented, supremely coached and now faces a much weaker division than it had if Brady had joined just a few years earlier. Ring eight could easily be coming, but at some point the ravages of time do have to affect him, right? Everyone hopes Jameis Winston can finally fulfill his potential with the Saints and not be hamstrung by the ludicrous Taysom Hill experiment, and there's reason to think that he can, though it won't be easy by any stretch. Both the Panthers and Falcons aren't much more than cannon fodder, but both are in the midst of interesting transitional phases that are worth looking more into. Sam Darnold could tap into his potential with Joe Brady, Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, and the Falcons are the subject of an amazing documentary series by Secret Base <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx_ORMhpmoU&list=PLUXSZMIiUfFSzzgEL4N9aYBXPmGVen3zW" target="_blank">which you should watch immediately</a>. </p><p><b>AFC West:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City 13-4</p><p>2. LA Chargers 10-7</p><p>3. Las Vegas 8-9</p><p>4. Denver 7-10</p><p>The Chiefs offensive line got exposed badly in Super Bowl 55, and they worked extremely hard this offseason to fix it. They seem to have done a very good job of that, and so long as Patrick Mahomes is as good as he is and Andy Reid is as good as he is, the Chiefs will be Super Bowl contenders. The Chargers, no matter the city they play in, have always been talented but have always found ways to have inexplicably bad luck and bad timing that ruin any positive momentum. With a new coaching staff and a second year of Justin Herbert, who spent all of last year also proving doubters wrong, the Chargers should overcome at least some of that. After the last few seasons for the Raiders, it certainly feels like they might be at the limit of what they are capable of. Denver seems content to try to win with as little QB play as possible, which is quite bold in this era of the NFL, and probably not all that wise.</p><p><b>NFC West:</b></p><p>1. LA Rams 12-5</p><p>2. San Francisco 11-6</p><p>3. Seattle 10-7</p><p>4. Arizona 8-9</p><p>The NFC West is once again the best division in football by far with incredible teams, incredible storylines and incredible competitiveness. There is a path by which the entire division makes the playoffs, though unlikely. If Sean McVay could take Jared Goff to a Super Bowl, surely a hungry and motivated Matthew Stafford could be even better for McVay's system, and they still have that defense. The 49ers, when healthy, are as talented and schematically sound as any team in the league, and trying the two QB system will be another extra wrinkle that Kyle Shanahan throws at unsuspecting defenses. The Seahawks still have Russell Wilson and for all of their other flaws that should be enough to carry them to the postseason again. The Cardinals have brought in stars in the twilight of their careers to help build around Kyler Murray, but it feels like something is still missing in Arizona compared to everyone else in the West.</p><p><b>AFC Playoff Order:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City</p><p>2. Buffalo</p><p>3. Cleveland</p><p>4. Tennessee</p><p>5. New England</p><p>6. LA Chargers</p><p>7. Pittsburgh</p><p><b>NFC Playoff Order:</b></p><p>1. Green Bay</p><p>2. Tampa Bay</p><p>3. LA Rams</p><p>4. Dallas</p><p>5. San Francisco</p><p>6. Seattle</p><p>7. New Orleans</p><p><b>AFC Playoff Predictions:</b></p><p><b>Wild Card Round:</b></p><p>2. Buffalo over 7. Pittsburgh</p><p>3. Cleveland over 6. LA Chargers</p><p>5. New England over 4. Tennessee</p><p><b>Divisional Round:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City over 5. New England</p><p>2. Buffalo over 3. Cleveland</p><p><b>AFC Championship:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City over 2. Buffalo</p><p><b>NFC Playoff Predictions:</b></p><p><b>Wild Card Round:</b></p><p>2. Tampa Bay over 7. New Orleans</p><p>3. LA Rams over 6. Seattle</p><p>5. San Francisco over 4. Dallas</p><p><b>Divisional Round:</b></p><p>5. San Francisco over 1. Green Bay</p><p>3. LA Rams over 2. Tampa Bay</p><p><b>NFC Championship:</b></p><p>3. LA Rams over 5. San Francisco</p><p><b>Super Bowl 56:</b></p><p>Kansas City over LA Rams 31-23</p><p><b>Award Predictions:</b></p><p><b>MVP: </b>Josh Allen (BUF)</p><p><b>OPOY: </b>Aaron Rodgers (GB)</p><p><b>DPOY: </b>T.J Watt (PIT)</p><p><b>OROY: </b>Trey Lance (SF)</p><p><b>DROY: </b>Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (CLE)</p><p><b>Coach: </b>Kyle Shanahan (SF)</p><p>Apologies to everyone that I jinxed here, and the list is long. </p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-28254662872606870302021-05-15T18:40:00.001-04:002021-05-15T18:40:14.732-04:002021 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions (and season in review)<p> That was a weird NHL season, wasn't it? The combination of games with few or no fans, division only play, a myriad of COVID-19 postponements and a regular season that is still somehow going on solely for contractual obligations while the postseason begins has been something to watch. But after last year's postseason finished up in a sterile bubble in the middle of September, at least these playoffs will approach something near normal. That means the predictions you're about to see will inevitably be quite bad.</p><p>But first, here's another annual tradition revived now that the pandemic is abating: seeing how bad my preseason predictions were!</p><p><b>Playoff teams:</b></p><p><b>My Predictions: </b>PHI/BOS/WSH/NYI, TOR/CGY/MTL/VAN, TB/CAR/DAL/CBJ, COL/VGK/STL/MIN</p><p><b>Actual Teams: </b>PIT/WSH/BOS/NYI, TOR/EDM/WPG/MTL, CAR/FLA/TB/NSH, COL/VGK/MIN/STL</p><p>Thankfully the West was predictable. 11 out of 16 is not a terrible hit rate and none of these predictions were that bad outside the North, where underestimating Connor McDavid and Connor Hellebuyck was probably a bad idea.</p><p><b>Awards:</b></p><p><b>Hart:</b> Nathan MacKinnon</p><p>He'll be third in voting behind the obvious winner Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.</p><p><b>Art Ross:</b> Connor McDavid</p><p>At least I can get this right.</p><p><b>Calder: </b>Tim Stueztle</p><p>My first instinct was Kirill Kaprizov. I should have stuck with that.</p><p><b>Norris:</b> Cale Makar</p><p>If he stayed healthy this year, he may have won it. The race for the Norris is incredibly deep this year, but the favorite might well be Adam Fox.</p><p><b>Rocket Richard: </b>Auston Matthews</p><p>Another one too obvious for even me to screw up.</p><p><b>Selke: </b>Mark Stone</p><p>Another year where a winger won't win this award, but Sasha Barkov is plenty worthy of winning it this year.</p><p><b>Vezina:</b> Carter Hart</p><p>I'm so sorry Carter, I'm so sorry.</p><p><b>Jack Adams: </b>Jared Bednar</p><p>His team won the President's Trophy with their litany of injuries! And yet because the voting public likes underdog stories, he won't win this though his coaching was exceptional. Joel Quenneville is the favorite.</p><p>And without further ado, the playoff predictions:</p><p><b>East:</b></p><p>Pittsburgh over New York Islanders in 6</p><p>Boston over Washington in 6</p><p>Boston over Pittsburgh in 6</p><p><b>Central:</b></p><p>Carolina over Nashville in 5</p><p>Tampa Bay over Florida in 7</p><p>Carolina over Tampa Bay in 7</p><p><b>West:</b></p><p>Colorado over St. Louis in 6</p><p>Vegas over Minnesota in 7</p><p>Colorado over Vegas in 7</p><p><b>North:</b></p><p>Toronto over Montreal in 5</p><p>Edmonton over Winnipeg in 6</p><p>Toronto over Edmonton in 7</p><p><b>Stanley Cup Semifinals:</b></p><p>1) Colorado over 4) Boston in 7</p><p>2) Carolina over 3) Toronto in 6</p><p><b>2021 Stanley Cup Final:</b></p><p>Colorado over Carolina in 6</p><p>Conn Smythe: Nathan MacKinnon</p><p>I'm sorry to all I have jinxed once again.</p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-60459201673845262352021-04-23T15:15:00.003-04:002021-04-23T15:15:46.813-04:00In Sports, it turns out greed can cross the Rubicon <p>In the universe, the biggest and brightest stars live fast, die young and when they go out, they go out with a bang. Such was the story of the European Super League; 48 hours where 12 of the biggest clubs joined together to break away from the structures that had molded European club soccer since the 19th century. But like the biggest and brightest stars throughout the known universe, this lived fast, died young and when it went out, it went out with a big bang. </p><p>No matter the might, influence and power of the men who put this plan in motion, they didn't see the outward force of gravity from the game's other great stakeholders pushing down on their fusion trying to push out. Under this pressure, the ESL collapsed under its own weight. </p><p>We could continue the star metaphors, including how supernovas are great forces of creation, but what's been undersold in the spectacular collapse of the Super League is how the unchecked greed of 21st century sports now suddenly has a limit. A red line has actually been crossed, and the punishment for crossing that red line turned out to be extremely severe. </p><p>Many of the people who spearheaded the Super League are extremely envious of the NFL's ability to continue to print money without fail. Some of the forces behind the Super League are part of that NFL money printing enterprise. But the NFL's magic touch isn't even finding ways to balloon their business to the tune of billions of dollars each year, it's how they do it without alienating the paying customer. Roger Goodell added a playoff team, a regular season game, turned the Draft into a traveling roadshow, expanded Thursday Night Football and put it behind a streaming paywall, and yet most fans have barely batted an eye. Expanding revenues this much while staying in the bounds of what's acceptable to the unwashed masses is an impressive tightrope to walk.</p><p>The European Super League's massive failure was falling off that tightrope spectacularly. It's not as if the current structure is truly competitive beyond the Super League founders anyway, but it's the illusion that competitive sporting merit still drives the bus that keeps the status quo in tact while the big clubs grab and grab. There have been more Champions League format changes in the last three decades than government changes in Italy; all slanted towards the big clubs getting a bigger slice of the pie and many of them approved under the threat of a Super League. A deft slight of hand and kissing the right rear ends kept this gravy train rolling, but it had rolled so far down the track, pandemic assisted too, that the Super League suddenly became much more than an empty threat.</p><p>A Super League in which clubs didn't earn their place at the big kids table by their own merit instead of just their brand was a bridge too far, particularly in England. No one, particularly the six owners of the Sky Six had any foresight to see it coming, whether they joined because they wanted their American sports model imported to Europe like the Marshall Plan or because they had to go along for the ride fearing they might be left out, had any ability to see the backlash coming. They couldn't realize that a Super League meant the Emperor had no clothes, the Wizard of Oz wasn't actually what he appeared to be and that would be what titled the field against them. In a world where there is still unchecked greed, particularly in sports, these Super League owners inadvertently found out that there is such a thing as too much greed, and that it can take you over the Rubicon. </p><p>What comes next in response to the Super League's failure is an open question. Will England impose a 50+1 rule for club ownership such as is law in Germany? Will UEFA pass a new Financial Fair Play law that more resembles an American style luxury tax or even a salary cap? Will the "dirty dozen" owners get forced out? Can the uneasy truces that kept the system humming along, broken as it is, be repaired? All are questions that will not have answers for quite some time.</p><p>But what the 48 hours of the European Super League and its fallout have shown is that unchecked greed in sports is suddenly not so unchecked anymore. There is such a thing as "too far", and the fans, always left out in the battles of millionaires vs. billionaires, actually have some sway, at least enough to tip the balance in a situation like this. Authorities in soccer need to be mindful of this, and everyone in professional sports across the globe should now understand that even if something like this episode on their shores is unlikely, it's still possible. With the knowledge that a red line is out there somewhere, will that mean that some of the more out there ideas to increase revenue now get shelved, or is a simple change of tactics on the horizon?</p><p>A star is fundamentally a delicate balance of nuclear fusion pushing out and gravity pushing in. In the end, gravity always wins. With the European Super League, gravity won, and in so doing, proved that there is such a thing as too much when it comes to greed in sports. </p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-82641398794531824712021-03-31T17:03:00.001-04:002021-03-31T17:03:07.405-04:002021 MLB Season Predictions<p> Major League Baseball begins its 2021 season on time this year, and will attempt to play as close to 162 as they possibly can. A full season, or something close to it, will be welcome with the impending labor doom on the horizon. Half of the Majors are intent to do as little as possible in fielding a team this year, about one third are legitimately going for it, and the others are stuck in the malaise of a CBA that is clearly outdated and is in desperate need of an overhaul. What does that mean for the season to come? It feels fairly easy to predict, even though we know that doesn't mean the eventual outcomes will be predictable.</p><p><b>NL East:</b></p><p>1. Atlanta</p><p>2. NY Mets</p><p>3. Washington</p><p>4. Philadelphia</p><p>5. Miami</p><p>The NL East is the only division where all five teams are conceivably going for it, or at least attempting to. Any of these teams could win the division or win a Wild Card spot, though some are more likely than others. The Braves have annual playoff heartbreak, but that means they get there, and they should have enough to win the division this year. The Mets are now spending like a New York team, but they still have the traditional Mets front office dysfunction and bullpen woes which will likely keep them from winning the pennant, but the playoffs are more than possible. Washington is not the team that won the 2019 World Series, but with the high end talent in Soto/Scherzer et al, they will be competitive all year. Philly's bullpen last year was so bad that it legitimately cost them a playoff spot, and while it'll be better this year, will it be good enough to not cost them a chance? It was fun to watch the Marlins take advantage of the shortened season last year, but that seems like a fluke of the pandemic more than anything else.</p><p><b>AL East:</b></p><p>1. NY Yankees</p><p>2. Toronto</p><p>3. Tampa Bay</p><p>4. Boston</p><p>5. Baltimore</p><p>Last year's shortened season cost the Yankees a chance at the division because their recent injury woes never relented. This year's team is deeper, and therefore should outlast the somewhat lesser opposition behind them to win the AL East again. It's nice to see the Blue Jays, who still can't play in Canada, spending on players like George Springer as they build back up to contending status again after their relatively surprising playoff appearance last year. They're young and fun and growing all the time. Tampa once again traded away its best player for prospects as only they can do after throwing away a World Series that was very winnable, but they have their system and process down to a tee. It will keep them competitive. The Red Sox are at the very least not tearing everything down to the studs anymore, and the O's... well that 0% playoff prediction on Fangraphs doesn't lie.</p><p><b>NL Central:</b></p><p>1. St. Louis</p><p>2. Milwaukee</p><p>3. Chicago Cubs</p><p>4. Cincinnati</p><p>5. Pittsburgh</p><p>Nolan Arenado is now a Cardinal because his old team is cheap and doesn't know how to rebuild (or build) properly. His presence buoys an already solid team to the top of a division in transition. Milwaukee struggled in the shortened season, but if Christian Yelich finds his 2018 form again, the Brewers should challenge for this division. The Cubs are also in the process of going cheaper now minus Yu Darvish among other 2016 heroes, and so their 2020 short season division win feels relatively hollow. The Reds no longer have their former ace Trevor Bauer, and a team that tried to go for it doesn't feel like it wants to do that anymore, as there's a drive into deep left field from Castellanos. As for the Pirates... PNC Park is nice!</p><p><b>AL Central:</b></p><p>1. Chicago White Sox</p><p>2. Minnesota</p><p>3. Cleveland</p><p>4. Kansas City </p><p>5. Detroit</p><p>Hiring Tony La Russa in 2021 baseball was and still is extremely weird. He doesn't mesh well with a young and fun group of players like the sadly injured Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson among others. But there is a school of thought that suggests talent can overcome coaching deficiencies in some circumstances, and in spite of the Jimenez injury, it seems like the White Sox should have enough to win this division. The Twins will continue to bash home runs for fun and try to outslug everyone else to make the postseason, which if they get there, will crash down to earth as it always does for the Twins in the postseason. It's a shame the Indians had to trade Francisco Lindor because it's impossible to spend money in baseball now, but they still have the pitching to stay competitive. That World Series winning Royals team is firmly a distant memory now, but Whit Merrifield is fun and could be a major piece at the trade deadline. The Tigers rebuild is ongoing, and some of those players will play for AJ Hinch this year, but that's about all there is in Detroit.</p><p><b>NL West:</b></p><p>1. LA Dodgers</p><p>2. San Diego</p><p>3. San Francisco </p><p>4. Arizona</p><p>5. Colorado</p><p>There's a real chance the Dodgers just steamroll everyone this year after finally winning the World Series. They're even deeper than they were with Trevor Bauer, and have multiple legit starters coming out of the bullpen. But this year, unlike recent years, will have actual competition in the division in the form of the amazingly fun and amazingly going for it San Diego Padres. There will be a real and fascinating rivalry between these two teams this season. Adding Blake Snell and Yu Darvish to a group with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and a number of exciting prospects is legitimately rare in today's baseball, and it's so much fun to see. The Giants rebuild is humming along smoothly, and while they won't be competitive this year, there's a chance they flex their muscle soon with prospects maturing and money to spend. Arizona's attempt to go for it last year with Madison Bumgarner failed spectacularly, and so they're now stuck in neutral, and the Rockies can't even put on a proper fire sale.</p><p><b>AL West:</b></p><p>1. Houston</p><p>2. Oakland</p><p>3. Anaheim</p><p>4. Seattle</p><p>5. Texas</p><p>Somehow, the Astros after their cheating scandals and poor form from stars made it to Game 7 of the ALCS after being down 3-0 in that series. Most of that group returns, sans George Springer, and it feels like this may be a last chance for this group to push at the top of the American League. At some point, will the A's run out of the magic they always have as they compete at a decently high level while spending little to no money on players? Don't count them out. Until the Angels prove they can be what they should be with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon, most should be inclined to not buy it from them. Outside of Jarred Kelenic, the most entertaining 2021 Seattle Mariners thing is this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pkVu6Kw00M&list=PLUXSZMIiUfFQua1LlKNMg1IOqAn15RkUT" target="_blank">extended look at their history courtesy of Secret Base, and it's amazing</a>. As for the Rangers, even though the pandemic is still ongoing, their new ballpark will be allowed to open at full capacity to watch a team tearing it down to the studs.</p><p><b>NL Playoff Teams:</b></p><p>1. LA Dodgers</p><p>2. Atlanta</p><p>3. St. Louis</p><p>4. San Diego</p><p>5. NY Mets</p><p><b>AL Playoff Teams:</b></p><p>1. NY Yankees</p><p>2. Houston</p><p>3. Chicago White Sox</p><p>4. Minnesota</p><p>5. Toronto</p><p><b>NL Postseason:</b></p><p>NL Wild Card: Padres over Mets</p><p>NLDS: Dodgers over Padres in 5 & Braves over Cardinals in 4</p><p>NLCS: Dodgers over Braves in 6</p><p><b>AL Postseason:</b></p><p>AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Twins</p><p>ALDS: Yankees over Blue Jays in 4 & Astros over White Sox in 5</p><p>ALCS: Yankees over Astros in 5</p><p><b>2021 World Series:</b></p><p>Dodgers over Yankees in 7 (it's boring but it seems most likely).</p><p><b>Awards:</b></p><p>NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)</p><p>AL MVP: Mike Trout (ANA)</p><p>NL Cy Young: Jacob DeGrom (NYM)</p><p>AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (NYY)</p><p>NL ROY: Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT)</p><p>AL ROY: Randy Arozarena (TB)</p><p>NL Manager: Jayce Tingeler (SD)</p><p>AL Manager: Charlie Montoyo (TOR)</p><p>Apologies to everyone in advance for the jinxes they have all received. </p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-64014667301846989832021-01-12T16:15:00.004-05:002021-01-13T19:17:33.784-05:002020-21 NHL Season Predictions<p> After the Stanley Cup was awarded in a hermetically sealed bubble in Edmonton in September, all eyes turned immediately to what the 2020-21 season for the NHL would look like. For a not insignificant period of time, it looked like there may be no season at all, and if some owners had their way, there wouldn't be one. But the league will trudge through their billion dollar losses (and the still raging global pandemic that caused them) to play a 56 game season with teams only playing inside their own division. It's unlike any NHL season before, and for a league that's always a bit unpredictable, this season may be a new level of unpredictable. That means, these predictions may be uniquely bad. </p><p><b>East:</b></p><p>1. Philadelphia</p><p>2. Boston</p><p>3. Washington</p><p>4. NY Islanders</p><p>5. Pittsburgh</p><p>6. NY Rangers</p><p>7. Buffalo</p><p>8. New Jersey</p><p>This division is very reminiscent of recent Big Ten basketball seasons: many good teams that will beat each other up, but no great team to separate themselves from the pack. For that reason, the team with the fewest obvious problems and the best goaltender will win the division, and that's Philly. Most notably, I have the Penguins missing out on the playoffs this year, largely because someone has to, but also because they feel the shakiest of the good batch of teams in their division, and doubting the Islanders has not been profitable for me recently.</p><p><b>North:</b></p><p>1. Toronto</p><p>2. Calgary</p><p>3. Montreal</p><p>4. Vancouver</p><p>5. Edmonton</p><p>6. Winnipeg</p><p>7. Ottawa</p><p>Toronto will finally win a playoff series this year because their division is so lopsided in favor of them. Every other team has a marked flaw that makes it difficult for them to compete on the Leafs' level. Calgary underachieved relative to their talent last year, and made a much necessary upgrade in net which should see them just ahead of Montreal, who now may have the talent to back up their wonderful style of play and underlying numbers. Vancouver gets in over Edmonton because of better goaltending and more depth outweighing McDavid and Draisaitl's brilliance.</p><p><b>Central:</b></p><p>1. Tampa Bay</p><p>2. Carolina</p><p>3. Dallas</p><p>4. Columbus</p><p>5. Florida</p><p>6. Nashville</p><p>7. Chicago</p><p>8. Detroit</p><p>Even without Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning will coast to a division title this season. Their biggest challenge will be Carolina, who are beloved by the analytics community and rightly so, since their style of play now has the great talent to back it up, but their weak links in net and in some depth areas keep them from winning the division. Dallas will be inconsistent to start the season thanks to their COVID and injury issues, but they're too talented to miss the postseason. Columbus gets in to the final playoff spot over Florida and Nashville thanks to the Islanders principle, but any one of those three could have a reasonable argument to get in. </p><p><b>West:</b></p><p>1. Colorado</p><p>2. Vegas</p><p>3. St. Louis</p><p>4. Minnesota</p><p>5. Anaheim</p><p>6. San Jose</p><p>7. Arizona</p><p>8. Los Angeles</p><p>The gap between the three best teams in the division is wider than any gap in any division this year. All three are legitimate Cup contenders, the rest will scrap for fourth and none would have any chance in any other division to get into the playoffs. Minnesota is the least flawed out of all of them, therefore they sneak in ahead of Anaheim, who with their young talent and underappreciated goalie could be the surprise team of the season. San Jose could also have one last gallant ride at success after their <i>annus horribilis </i>last year.</p><p><b>Playoffs:</b></p><p><b>East:</b></p><p>1. PHI over NYI in 7</p><p>2. BOS over WSH in 6</p><p>1. PHI over 2. BOS in 7</p><p><b>North:</b></p><p>1. TOR over 4. VAN in 5</p><p>3. MTL over 2. CGY in 7</p><p>1. TOR over 3. MTL in 6</p><p><b>Central:</b></p><p>1. TB over 4. CBJ in 6</p><p>2. CAR over 3. DAL in 7</p><p>1. TB over 2. CAR in 6</p><p><b>West:</b></p><p>1. COL over 4. MIN in 5</p><p>2. VGK over 3. STL in 6</p><p>1. COL over 2. VGK in 7</p><p><b>Final 4:</b></p><p>Colorado over Philadelphia in 6 (1 vs. 4)</p><p>Tampa Bay over Toronto in 6 (2 vs. 3)</p><p><b>Colorado</b> over Tampa Bay in 6</p><p><b>Awards:</b></p><p>Hart: Nathan MacKinnon (COL)</p><p>Art Ross: Connor McDavid (EDM)</p><p>Calder: Tim Stueztle (OTT)</p><p>Norris: Cale Makar (COL)</p><p>Rocket Richard: Auston Matthews (TOR)</p><p>Selke: Mark Stone (VGK)</p><p>Vezina: Carter Hart (PHI)</p><p>Jack Adams: Jared Bednar (COL)</p><p>Apologies in advance for the jinxes I have caused. Happy hockey season!</p><p><br /></p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-36863369248706320462021-01-08T17:25:00.002-05:002021-01-08T17:25:24.282-05:002020 NFL Season Predictions in Review + Postseason Predictions<p> Well that was a mess. Games on Wednesday afternoons because of the Rockefeller Center tree lighting ceremony, a game featuring a team with no rostered QB's and an overall sense of uneasiness defined the 2020 NFL season. Somehow, thanks to COVID-19 taking Sunday off like only God could have asked for, the NFL completed a 256 game regular season and moves onto a postseason in which already, a team won't have its head coach thanks to him testing positive for COVID-19. But nothing will stop the Shield, and nothing will stop me from filling this husk of a blog with the dying embers of content known as: looking back on terrible preseason predictions!</p><p><b>AFC Playoff teams (correct order):</b></p><p>1. KC 12-4 (KC 14-2)</p><p>2. BAL 12-4 (BUF 13-3)</p><p>3. IND 11-5 (PIT 12-4)</p><p>4. NE10-6 (TEN 11-5)</p><p>5. PIT 10-6 (BAL 11-5)</p><p>6. BUF 9-7 (CLE 11-5)</p><p>7. TEN 9-7 (IND 11-5)</p><p>Getting six out of seven AFC teams right in the postseason is not a bad return, though I didn't get them in the right order. Thinking the Patriots had one last kick at the can was a mistake many made, and not buying the Browns was another. Personal held skepticism of the Bills and Titans are most certainly gone now.</p><p><b>NFC Playoff teams (correct order);</b></p><p>1. NO 12-4 (GB 13-3)</p><p>2. DAL 11-5 (NO 12-4)</p><p>3. SF 11-5 (SEA 12-4)</p><p>4. MIN 10-6 (WSH 7-9)</p><p>5. TB 10-6 (TB 11-5)</p><p>6. GB 9-7 (LAR 10-6)</p><p>7. SEA 9-7 (CHI 8-8)</p><p>Now the NFC on the other hand was a bit of a disaster. San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota all completely fell apart due to injuries, incompetence or a combination of both, and I wasn't buying into the Packers and Seahawks in the preseason but I probably should have, since they may be the two favorites to make the NFC Title game once again. </p><p><b>Awards:</b></p><p>MVP: Patrick Mahomes</p><p>He could be MVP every year, but Aaron Rodgers will win it this year, seemingly turning back time once again.</p><p>OPOY: Lamar Jackson</p><p>He took some unfair criticism at times this year, though he wasn't quite what he was a year ago. This will end up being the MVP runner up award, and this year, that likely goes to Derrick Henry for being the bulldozer he always is. Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams are other worthy contenders.</p><p>DPOY: Aaron Donald</p><p>Picking him for this award is pretty easy as he is one of the best players in the league year in and year out. He has stiff competition from TJ Watt, and if the Rams missed the playoffs, it might be easy to slide in Watt for this award. Either could win, but this prediction wasn't off base.</p><p>OROY: Joe Burrow</p><p>If he stayed healthy all season, he probably would have won, but even then he would have had major competition. Justin Herbert was way better than anyone could have ever imagined and will be the favorite for this award as he is a QB, but Justin Jefferson should also get the love he deserves. One man who deserves way more credit it than he got: James Robinson, the UDFA for Jacksonville who was the entire offense for the worst team in the league and was a revelation. </p><p>DROY: Chase Young</p><p>Dominant beyond dominant. There's almost no other contender for this award.</p><p>Coach: Mike McCarthy</p><p>Whoops. Kevin Stefanski probably gets it for ending the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, but Sean McDermott should get love for turning the Bills into a juggernaut. I also think Matt LaFleur should get credit for reviving what seemed to be a flagging Packers team before he arrived and giving a jolt to that team.</p><p>Comeback: Cam Newton</p><p>Nope. Alex Smith wins this without any debate.</p><p>Here are my 2020 NFL Playoff Predictions:</p><p><b>AFC:</b></p><p>Wild Card Round:</p><p>Bills over Colts</p><p>Titans over Ravens</p><p>Steelers over Browns</p><p>Divisional Round:</p><p>Chiefs over Titans</p><p>Bills over Steelers</p><p>AFC Title Game:</p><p>Chiefs over Bills</p><p><b>NFC:</b></p><p>Wild Card Round:</p><p>Saints over Bears</p><p>Seahawks over Rams</p><p>Bucs over Washington</p><p>Divisional Round:</p><p>Packers over Bucs</p><p>Seahawks over Saints</p><p>NFC Title Game:</p><p>Packers over Seahawks</p><p>Super Bowl 55:</p><p>Chiefs over Packers</p><p>Yes, I changed from my preseason prediction of KC/NO. That prediction was made seven years ago, or so it feels like. Enjoy the playoffs. </p><p><br /></p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-53818050424129086892020-09-11T17:44:00.002-04:002020-09-11T17:49:22.981-04:002020-21 Premier League Predictions <p>Two prediction pieces in three days? Must mean the writer is getting lazy and wants to shill for content. That's definitely true, but it's a strange 2020 coincidence that the Premier League and NFL seasons start so close to one another that two prediction pieces are needed. Perhaps this should wait until the transfer window closes in October, but these games still matter. So here are the sure-to-go-wrong as always predictions for the Premier League:</p><p><i>Standings predicted from worst to first.</i></p><p><b>20. Fulham</b></p><p>When Fulham was promoted a few years ago, they spent wildly and all that got them was three managers, 26 points and an immediate return to the Championship. After winning the promotion playoffs, they're back, with considerably more financial restraint and a squad that doesn't look nearly as enticing on paper. That might mean better for the balance sheet but not form the performance on the pitch. They won't be as bad defensively as they were two years ago, but they may also not be as good going forward either. Staying up is a success, and that success looks hard to come by.</p><p><b>19. West Bromwich Albion</b></p><p>West Brom stumbled out of the Premier League just like Fulham did two years ago, and spent largely on their manager to get them back to the top flight. Slaven Bilic proved to be right the man, and with a few shrewd signings (and dumb luck at the end of last year), they won promotion. Most of their money spent this window was re-signing players who were on loan, and that can only be part of the equation. They need a striker as a focal point to be the line leader, which every promoted club needs, and as of now they don't have that. Bilic has the managerial chops, but the squad is lacking in some key areas, which will prove to be fatal.</p><p><b>18. Burnley</b></p><p>At some point, this club is going to go down because they will get outstripped by clubs with more resources. Sean Dyche is a miracle worker keeping this club in the Premier League as long as he has, but even he might not be able to do much with a squad that rapidly thinned out and has made no additions this window outside of a reserve goalie. Somehow, even through Dyche openly feuding with management about money invested in the squad, he's back, and he might be enough to keep them up again, and safely. But at some point, predicting Burnley to go down will be correct, and this year may be just weird enough that even miracle workers can't pull another rabbit out of their hat.</p><p><b>17. Aston Villa</b></p><p>For most of last season, it looked like Villa would go the way of Fulham: big spenders whose transfer outlay barely papered over the cracks of a squad that was barely Premier League quality. But, they found a great escape last year, perhaps solely because of an incident against Sheffield United when Hawkeye failed to give a clear goal that almost assuredly would have sent them down. They still have Jack Grealish, who could and probably should be at a bigger club right now, and they spent lavishly on a new striker from Brentford in Ollie Watkins. They need to get those goals from one of their forwards if they're going to stay up, and it would help if their defense settled a bit. Will they be bitten by second season syndrome? </p><p><b>16. West Ham United</b></p><p>This club, for all its faults, has no business being in relegation battles. They've spent and spent on countless players with potential who failed to meet it, which has meant a mid table club has ended up here. Now, they can't spend without selling, and David Moyes, for all of his faults, needs players to work with and doesn't really have a squad to do the job. However, they haven't sold Michail Antonio, Declan Rice or other key cogs, meaning that they should have enough quality to scrape by once again. But for this club, scraping by should never be good enough.</p><p><b>15. Crystal Palace</b></p><p>Crystal Palace were basically safe by March, when last season was suspended due to the pandemic. It became obvious after the restart that they knew they were safe, since their run of form, particularly towards the end of project restart, was horrific. Roy Hodgson knows this and always manages to get more out of a squad that is in a desperate need of a major refresh, but after last season when the squad was even more stale, he was still able to get results. Bringing back Michi Batshuayi on loan from Chelsea is a move that should do plenty to ease those concerns, at least temporarily. Wilfried Zaha, as of this writing, is still at Palace, and that bodes well as he's still their best player through all the transfer turmoil. This club will have its ebbs, but should be relatively safe come the end of the year.</p><p><b>14. Brighton & Hove Albion</b></p><p>Graham Potter's team at times looks absolutely overawed when they play the Premiership's big boys, but at times, they pull off amazing results, like against Spurs and Arsenal at home last year. Potter was able to get Brighton to play better looking soccer last year, which worked well against teams at their level. They were always a bit wasteful with their chances, but they made their chances count when they needed to. They were also relatively poor defensively, but adding Joel Veltman from Ajax and bringing back a star from Leeds' promotion campaign in Ben White should help solidify things somewhat. They also are developing some young players with promise. The Seagulls should be a good neutral watch this season, and a club that looks to be sticking around, too.</p><p><b>13. Sheffield United</b></p><p>Overlapping centerbacks. That sounds off, but the tactics worked, because Sheffield United spent no time in the relegation zone and conceded the fewest goals of any promoted side in Premier League history. Part of that has to do with Dean Henderson, the Manchester United loanee that is now back with his parent club, but the team buy in to the tactics and approach was truly amazing to see. While they didn't generate many chances, when they did, they finished them. That combination made the Blades much tougher than anyone saw coming. No player stands out above the rest, and that's what makes them unique. There's almost no way they compete for Europe this season, but there's little reason to see them going down, either.</p><p><b>12. Leeds United</b></p><p>If you have never watched a second of Premier League soccer, watch Leeds United this year and you'll be hooked for life. Leeds are a gigantic club that once made a Champions League semifinal, but was mismanaged into the dirt and only just returned to the Premier League this season. Their manager, Marcelo Bielsa, is nicknamed "El Loco" for a reason. His teams run, and run, and run. Bielsa's inspiration on managers like Pep Guardiola, Mauricio Pochettino and others cannot be overstated, and now the man himself gets to tackle the Premier League challenge. Last year, they were even better than their points haul indicated because they wasted so many good chances; <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11715/12056393/leeds-2020-21-what-will-be-the-target-for-marcelo-bielsa-and-his-side-this-season" target="_blank">according to Sky Sports, they underperformed their xG by 11 last year</a>. You can't have that in the top flight. But this team is a little like Wolves; they're not any real threat to go down and could become a top half team in short order. And most importantly, they're going to be fun as hell.</p><p><b>11. Newcastle United</b></p><p>No club in this league has squandered more potential than Newcastle. They are a gigantic club that too often flirts with outright disaster. They were to be taken over by a group with ties to the Saudi Arabian government, which fell through in spectacular fashion, so the loathed Mike Ashley is still around. There are concerns, as always with this club. Their preseason has been dour, and goalkeeper Martin Dubravka could be out for months. But this club has quality, or at least enough of it, to stay away from relegation. Miguel Almiron is still special, Allan Saint-Maximin has been a bright spark and bringing in Jeff Hendrick and Ryan Fraser on free transfers is worth the risk. There is always something going on with Newcastle, and if they survived last season in tact, they'll probably do well enough again.</p><p><b>10. Southampton</b></p><p>Southampton have been a staging post for some of the greats in the Premier League in the last decade to launch. Players and managers alike have found their careers taking off on the South Coast, though there were moments where that looked almost impossible. They flirted with relegation a few too many times, and they lost 9-0 to Leicester at home last season when the whole project was on the verge of falling apart. But Ralph Hassenhuttl survived, and his team started to play a high pressing, high energy style that lead to success. Last season, Saints were absolutely terrible at home, which makes basically no sense. Should that turn around, they could and should challenge for Europe.</p><p><b>9. Everton</b></p><p>Carlo Ancelotti is one of the best managers in recent time, so to see him managing Everton is quite a shock, even now. It's even more of a shock to see players like James Rodriguez in Toffee blue as well. Their squad features players with so much potential: Richarlison, Allan, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, etc. They now need to reach it, which has been a problem for Everton in recent years. This manager has achieved so much, but this is his biggest challenge yet. Can they break the Sky Six hammerlock? They have the grit, but now they need the guile.</p><p><b>8. Leicester City</b></p><p>Watching Leicester lay waste to the league in the fall of last season was truly impressive, which makes it even more stunning to see them finish fifth when it looked like they had a Champions League spot in the bag. They really did collapse towards the end of last season in spectacular fashion. Key players like Jamie Vardy and James Maddison aren't leaving, but not many new players are coming. Their exquisite transfer business from the past also doesn't look to be continuing into the Brendan Rogers era. Add the Europa League to the mix and you get a club destined to slide down the table a little. It's now a matter to see whether they've hit their ceiling.</p><p><b>7. Wolves</b></p><p>An aside: Wolves apparently spent 40 million Euros on a young player from Porto who has played less than a dozen games, <a href="https://twitter.com/tariqpanja/status/1303956355313737729" target="_blank">whose agent happens to be an adviser to Wolves ownership</a> and also has direct ties to the manager and much of the squad. Hmmm... if you're not a Jorge Mendes fan, Wolves is not the club for you. But if Jorge Mendes FC doesn't turn you off, you'll find that they're still a fun team to watch that plays great soccer and has impressive talent that clubs around them envy. Raul Jimenez is one of the best strikers in the league, Adama Traore is a bulldozer on the wing with great skill and intelligence to boot, but their squad is extremely thin. With so many games in such a short period of time, even with the additions of young players from Jorge Mendes rolodex, at some point that's going to bite them. No Europe this year helps a tad, but it seems like this team found its ceiling last year and is now butting up against it. Maybe turning outside the Mendes sphere of influence would be worth it.</p><p><b>6. Spurs</b></p><p>Going from Mauricio Pochettino to Jose Mourinho was one of the biggest managerial shocks in recent years, especially for a club that seemed so in love with its manager for the first time in decades. Mourinho was able to scratch a European finish out of last season, benefited morbidly by the pandemic shutting down the season when most of his squad was on the training table. During the restart, Harry Kane recovered lost form which helped Spurs only lose once during that period. They've also signed players prior to deadline day in Matt Doherty and Pierre-Emile Hojberg in two spots of need, which is a welcome change. They will play a ton of games this season thanks to the Europa League, and the demands for Mourinho are what they were when he came in: Champions League and/or a trophy. It feels long past due that this Spurs team will get the latter, but they haven't yet. Is this the year, or is this the year the Mourinho shtick starts to wear thin?</p><p><b>5. Arsenal</b></p><p>Arsenal supporters are almost never optimistic, and that's with good reason: the club has frayed in recent years during the latter tenure of Arsene Wenger and the failure of Unai Emery. He's already won a FA Cup and Community Shield, so some of the worries about his tenure have already been soothed, at least temporarily. They were able to beat Liverpool, City and Chelsea in that run of form too. Can Arteta fix Arsenal's chronic, ever-lasting problems in central defense and central midfield? Gabriel from Lille and William Saliba should help the former, but they're not the first centerbacks to come to Arsenal with hype and not meet it. Having one of the best strikers in the world in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang certainly helps paper over those cracks. They're developing a distinct identity and playing style, which has been lacking for a few years. Making the Champions League doesn't seem so far fetched now, nor does finishing ahead of Spurs for the first time since 2016 either, but there's still a noticeable gap between them and the top four for a reason.</p><p><b>4. Manchester United</b></p><p>Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is the right manager for this club that has been looking for far too long to find their true next man up after Sir Alex's retirement seven years ago. He's getting the most out of young players and those already there, and with additions like Bruno Fernandes, Harry McGuire and Donny Van De Beek, There was no silverware to back up the distinct progress made, but returning to the Champions League is an important milestone. If United sign Jadon Sancho, which is oft rumored but doesn't seem likely to happen, that could push them up a step or two. Clubs in their position see incremental progress, and incremental might not be good enough at United considering who and what is ahead of them. But for the first time in a long time, they're on the right path, and for good this time.</p><p><b>3. Chelsea</b></p><p>Roman Abramovich apparently has no idea that the world is in the grips of a global pandemic/financial crisis the likes of which we haven't seen in generations, because he's spending money like a drunken sailor. These are splashy signings too in Hakim Ziyech, Timo Werner and Kai Havertz. They're exciting additions to a group of young players and holdovers that Frank Lampard melded together into a great attacking force after a transfer ban and losing players like Eden Hazard. They'll score goals, no doubt, but they might give up a ton too, especially when their big addition to central defense is 35 year old Thiago Silva, which may help steadying the ship, but not raising it above the water line. They're better than last year's team that finished third for sure, but how much better? Are they still a cut below City and Liverpool? Oh, and we can't forget Kepa. Don't forget about Kepa. </p><p><b>2. Liverpool</b></p><p>Jurgen Klopp's methodical build finally brought Anfield a title, and they did so in such spectacular fashion that the wait was worth it. But repeating as Champions is going to be extremely difficult, as City and others learned the hard way. This task is made harder since the only new signing they've made is a back up left back. That's not to say that their squad has suddenly begun to fall apart, but more is needed to keep up the pace with those around them. Will some of these hyped young players from the academy fill in the gaps? There's no doubt Liverpool are going to have a great chance to retain the title, but repeating will be harder than winning it the first time.</p><p><b>1. Manchester City</b></p><p>For all of Pep's spectacular collapses late in the Champions League, his teams know how to win trophies at home. And it's not like City were that "bad" last year either; in most other years, they'd have won the title. But they set such a standard that Liverpool did so well to beat that at some point, they were inevitably going to have to step aside. They're in transition away from the era of David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Vincent Kompany to younger players like Phil Foden and others. Last year, the surprise for City was not that their attack wilted, but the defense didn't play up to standards. Signing Nathan Ake from Bournemouth should help a little in that regard. Winning the title might not even be the biggest goal for City this season considering their European misadventures, but they are currently favorites to do it, simply because they might be less flawed than everyone else around them.</p><p>So those are the predictions for 2020-21, sure to be wrong in May or whenever the season ends if the pandemic flares up again, which is more than possible, and might be the surest bet in all these words. </p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-37101000974194125582020-09-09T20:16:00.003-04:002020-09-09T20:16:50.096-04:002020 NFL Season Predictions<p> It doesn't seem real that there's going to be a full NFL season during a global pandemic still killing on average 1,000 Americans, but in a typical headstrong, stubborn American way, our true national pastime will soldier on. In many places, cheering fans will be replaced by awkward fake crowd noise and overbearing ads, but in a normal world, NFL games still featured plenty of that. With no preseason, it's hard to know what these games will even look like, but for many, sloppy football is still better than no football. These predictions are bad even in years with certainty, so these picks may end up even worse than usual. At least these won't be the only ones.</p><p><b>AFC East:</b></p><p>1. New England 10-6</p><p>2. Buffalo 9-7</p><p>3. Miami 7-9</p><p>4. NY Jets 4-12</p><p>2020 is so strange that the Patriots are still predicted to win the AFC East even though they'll have their first non-Tom Brady opening day starter since 2001 and many of their good players opted out thanks to the pandemic. But Cam Newton with a chip on his shoulder is scary, even though the rest of the Patriots are decidedly not that scary anymore. On paper, the Bills have the most talent in the division, but when the lasting memory of them from last year is Josh Allen not knowing which way was up during the Wild Card game, they end up getting a handicap. If the simplest question is which QB do you trust more, Newton or Allen, the answer is simple. Tua does not start the season for Miami as their QB but he'll end it under center, and the Dolphins will be competitive in every game since they now have the talent to go with the coaching from last season. The Jets had their best player opt out due to COVID-19, and Frank Gore might be starting over Le'Veon Bell even though he's old enough to have a child currently playing college football.</p><p><b>NFC East:</b></p><p>1. Dallas 11-5</p><p>2. Philadelphia 9-7</p><p>3. NY Giants 5-11</p><p>4. Washington 3-13</p><p>Somehow, Dallas conspired to throw the NFC East away last year, and that finally cost Jason Garrett his job. With better coaching this year, and small but necessary upgrades across the board, they should finally be able to put away this listless division. Philly's success this year will come largely if they stay healthy, but with history as a reference, that's nowhere near certain. They can win the division, but they're not as deep as Dallas, especially on defense. Daniel Jones has a new coach and a new offense, but his team still doesn't have the defense to back him up. And as for the team with no name, Ron Rivera has a massive clean up job to do, and that's more hoping the mess above him becomes slightly less messy. Is Dwayne Haskins the answer? Is he still the starter by the end of the year?</p><p><b>AFC North:</b></p><p>1. Baltimore 12-4</p><p>2. Pittsburgh 10-6</p><p>3. Cleveland 7-9</p><p>4. Cincinnati 5-11</p><p>The Ravens have the best QB and best player in the division, and though they won't win 14 like they did a year ago, having the best player and best QB be one and the same will tilt this division towards them again, though they'll have far more stiff competition this year than last. With Big Ben healthy, an offense with great potential could be back to their strength from the Killer B's era, and the defense might be starting to look somewhat like Steelers' defenses of old again. They're for sure a playoff team, and a sneaky Super Bowl contender in a top heavy AFC. Everyone thought this time last year that the Browns would finally turn the corner, and predictably, they didn't. They have the talent to finally make the postseason, but do you trust them? Joe Burrow will win the Bengals some games they shouldn't win, but this roster overall is still talent deficient, but the arrow is at least firmly pointing up.</p><p><b>NFC North:</b></p><p>1. Minnesota 10-6</p><p>2. Green Bay 9-7</p><p>3. Detroit 7-9</p><p>4. Chicago 6-10</p><p>Minnesota lost twice to Green Bay last year which cost them a division title, but they still pulled off a great upset at New Orleans in the Wild Card round. With Dalvin Cook and just enough on offense, even though they traded away Stefon Diggs for some reason, they should be the favorites in the division though they are more flawed than in recent years. Green Bay's 13-3 record last year was a fluke and everyone knows it, and after some bizarre moves this offseason, particularly in the draft, many are starting to wonder what the future of this team looks like. Their defense will be better than their offense again, which is strange to write. Matt Patricia looks to be another in a line of failed Bill Belichick disciples to have success as head coaches elsewhere, even though he's got a renewed Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around easily. And the Bears QB competition between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky tells you everything about where this team is heading: straight to the basement of this division.</p><p><b>AFC South:</b></p><p>1. Indianapolis 11-5</p><p>2. Tennessee 9-7</p><p>3. Houston 7-9</p><p>4. Jacksonville 4-12</p><p>If Andrew Luck didn't stunningly retire during the preseason last year, they would have been a contender for the Super Bowl. To finish 7-9 after that even with mediocre QB play, shows the talent on this roster that will carry them forward this year now that they've upgraded at that position. Late stage Philip Rivers will be enough with this roster construction to get the Colts where they need to go. Teams that play like Tennessee; run heavy with just enough QB play to get by are not bets for long term success, and the Titans are perpetually 7-9/8-8/9-7, but with the expanded postseason that might be enough to get them in again. When you trade away your best non-QB player for peanuts, your team isn't destined for success, and the Texans, beneficiaries of being in a terrible division for so long, are finally going to see that catch up to them. The Jaguars aren't tanking, that requires a plan which they don't have, but they're not the automatic worst team in the league that so many are saying they are. Not only do they have competition for it, but they're not as talent bereft as you think, just extremely young, which isn't a formula for success in a year with a giant global pandemic.</p><p><b>NFC South:</b></p><p>1. New Orleans 12-4</p><p>2. Tampa Bay 10-6</p><p>3. Atlanta 8-8</p><p>4. Carolina 6-10</p><p>This might be the last kick at the can for the Saints as currently constructed, which is a shame. They've been one of the most fun and fascinating teams in the NFL in recent years, only to be eliminated from the postseason in excrutiating fashion each time. It's not a matter of what they do in the regular season, it's a matter of getting over those mental hurdles in the playoffs. Tampa has the stars, and has the pieces, but can they put it all together in a year without a preseason? They are the Bucs, a team that has made the playoffs only twice since winning the Super Bowl in 2002. Atlanta feels like a team that is distinctly stuck in the messy middle; not good enough to contend for the playoffs but not bad enough for the bottom to fall out, which is evidenced by two consecutive 7-9 finishes, and it seems they're not budging from that. Carolina is going all out on the college model of success, and while that will benefit Christian McCaffrey's fantasy owners, what else do they have around him?</p><p><b>AFC West:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City 12-4</p><p>2. LA Chargers 7-9</p><p>3. Las Vegas (still weird) 6-10</p><p>4. Denver 6-10</p><p>No team has repeated as Super Bowl champ since the Patriots in 2004, but it feels like if any team in recent history is going to do it, it would be these Chiefs. Though hit by a few notable COVID-19 opt outs, they still have the best player in football and have the depth to overcome those losses. It also helps they play in a mediocre division. The Chargers will go with Tyrod Taylor instead of rookie Justin Herbert, probably wise since Herbert is such a divisive prospect and nowhere near polished yet, but this team always confounds and conspires to be worse than the sum of its parts. They could have the DPOY in Nick Bosa, a talented offense with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, and yet they don't have the look and feel of a playoff team. Derwin James being out is tough. A new city beckons for the Raiders, yet Vegas won't singlehandedly change this team's luck. Derek Carr might be on the last of his seemingly nine lives, and ever since that great 2016 run, he hasn't been able to recapture that form. The Broncos may have just lost Von Miller for the season, Bradley Chubb isn't healthy yet either, and the offensive line might well be a sieve. Not a great combination for a team that hasn't won in five years and a young QB with plenty of question marks.</p><p><b>NFC West:</b></p><p>1. San Francisco 11-5</p><p>2. Seattle 9-7</p><p>3. LA Rams 8-8</p><p>4. Arizona 7-9</p><p>10 years ago, the NFC West's division winner finished with a below .500 record, yet for most of the decade after, it was the best division in football by far. That's again the case in 2020, where a convincing argument can be made that all teams finish above .500. Though the 49ers are going to have a Super Bowl hangover of some kind, they're still a cut above everyone else in the division, even with perhaps the third best QB in the division. They're already a little banged up, but especially at WR, and thinner on the OL than last year, but every other team has a more fatal flaw than theirs. Seattle was also extremely flukey with their record since they won so many close games, and that is not replicable in 2020. They also don't have a good pass rush, or much of a running game to speak of. Relying on Russell Wilson to do absolutely everything is great in principle, not so in practice. Jared Goff is a perfectly acceptable QB making top 5 QB money, which is a bad combination on a roster that has become pretty lopsided and uneven even with superstars like Aaron Donald. If the Cardinals were in any other division, they'd probably make the playoffs considering Kyler Murray now has the best receiver in football to throw to. They're definitely going to be fun, but they may not be quite ready yet.</p><p><b>AFC Playoff teams:</b></p><p>1. Kansas City 12-4</p><p>2. Baltimore 12-4</p><p>3. Indianapolis 11-5</p><p>4. New England 10-6</p><p>5. Pittsburgh 10-6</p><p>6. Buffalo 9-7</p><p>7. Tennessee 9-7</p><p><b>NFC Playoff teams:</b></p><p>1. New Orleans 12-4</p><p>2. Dallas 11-5</p><p>3. San Francisco 11-5</p><p>4. Minnesota 10-6</p><p>5. Tampa Bay 10-6</p><p>6. Green Bay 9-7</p><p>7. Seattle 9-7</p><p><b>AFC Playoff Predictions:</b></p><p>Wild Card Round:</p><p>2. Baltimore over 7. Tennessee</p><p>3. Indianapolis over 6. Buffalo</p><p>5. Pittsburgh over 4. New England</p><p>Divisional Round:</p><p>1. Kansas City over 5. Pittsburgh</p><p>2. Baltimore over 3. Indianapolis</p><p>AFC Championship Game:</p><p>1. Kansas City over 2. Baltimore</p><p><b>NFC Playoff Predictions:</b></p><p>Wild Card Round:</p><p>2. Dallas over 7. Seattle</p><p>3. San Francisco over 6. Green Bay</p><p>5. Tampa Bay over 4. Minnesota</p><p>Divisional Round:</p><p>1. New Orleans over 5. Tampa Bay</p><p>3. San Francisco over 2. Dallas</p><p>NFC Championship Game:</p><p>1. New Orleans over 3. San Francisco</p><p><b>Super Bowl 55:</b></p><p>Kansas City over New Orleans 35-24</p><p><b>Award Predictions:</b></p><p><b>MVP: </b>Patrick Mahomes (KC)</p><p><b>OPOY: </b>Lamar Jackson (BAL)</p><p><b>DPOY: </b>Aaron Donald (LAR)</p><p><b>OROY: </b>Joe Burrow (CIN)</p><p><b>DROY: </b>Chase Young (WSH)</p><p><b>Coach: </b>Mike McCarthy (DAL)</p><p><b>Comeback: </b>Cam Newton (NE)</p><p><b>Will there be a full season finishing on time? </b>There will be a hiccup or two along the way considering the unprecedented nature of the season, but the NFL will have a full season either way. Whether it finishes on time is another matter, but surprisingly there haven't been any major disruptions yet. It seems more plausible than ever that the season will chart a normal course with regards to the calendar.</p><p>Apologies to anyone I jinxed with these predictions.</p>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-38021837424885604592020-07-22T21:36:00.001-04:002020-07-22T21:36:08.608-04:00How should we view the return of sports during the Coronavirus pandemic?Four months ago, when the shock of almost all sports globally being shut down still very fresh, I wrote that "we didn't know what we had with sports until they were gone, but even through the dark times without them, I can't wait to see what life is like with them again." It was a positive, hopeful thought in a time where there was far more uncertainty and fear than hope.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
On the eve baseball, basketball and hockey returning to play, my comment about not being able to wait to see what life is like with sports again seems hollow. The pandemic that shut down sports is in many ways even worse than it was when they were shut down in March, particularly in this country. Famous athletes, like everyone else, have contracted COVID-19 <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/braves/2020/07/18/braves-freddie-freeman-describes-covid-battle-please-dont-take-me/5465904002/" target="_blank">and in many cases were hit very hard by it</a>. There are testing shortages across the country for those who need it the most, and delays for those lucky enough to get their tests, and yet leagues have been able to accumulate tests, use them daily and get almost instant results. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Sean Doolittle of the Washington Nationals put it pretty bluntly:</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Quote of the summer:<br />“Sports are like the reward of a functional society.” ⤵️<br /><br />Sean Doolittle frames up MLB’s return amidst a pandemic about the best one can. <a href="https://twitter.com/whatwouldDOOdo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@whatwouldDOOdo</a> <br /> <a href="https://t.co/5csLWRiQP9">pic.twitter.com/5csLWRiQP9</a></div>
— Brodie Brazil (@BrodieNBCS) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrodieNBCS/status/1279838856603287552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 5, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
So what are we to make of sports returning to our lives when so much is still not normal, and might not be for some time yet?
<br />
<br />
Sean Doolittle among others have asked an important question: should sports be returning with the virus still very much out of control? When there are distinct ethical questions about whether sports leagues should take up the testing capacity needed for essential workers and the general population, society isn't functioning as it should. There is the real risk that when some athletes catch COVID-19, they may suffer long lasting and permanent damage, not just to living a healthy life but keeping their high standards as a professional athlete, and hundreds of athletes have already caught the virus in the course of living normal life during the pandemic. Some have pre-existing conditions that make contracting the virus even more concerning, and many have opted out of playing. Should they even be asked to put themselves on the line in circumstances like this, healthy or not?<br />
<br />
However, thanks to the money on the line, some leagues have gone to great extents to restart play even when the outside world isn't conducive to it. MLS, NWSL, the NBA, WNBA and NHL have all constructed bubbles to keep players insulated from potential infection, and the early returns are somewhat positive. NWSL has had no positive tests inside their bubble, though Orlando Pride had to withdraw before the tournament because of positives they picked up at home, and though two teams had to withdraw from the MLS is Back tournament because of the number of positive tests, the league has had five straight reports of no positive tests inside the bubble as of July 22. The NBA's bubble is also off to a good start with no players testing positive during their first week. Ethics about testing aside, the bubbles seem to be a cohesive strategy that gets play resumed and keeps players and staff safe, and one with the least amount of concern for the public at large.<br />
<br />
But not every league can operate in a bubble. Are the ethical and moral concerns greater for MLB, who will be traveling from city to city, though playing in empty stadiums? Are they greater for the NFL, who will be doing the same, though with more players to test, no preseason and highly limited capacity for fans in stadiums if that? And what of college football and college sports in general, whose scatterbrain, scattershot philosophy on play has left conferences on their own, lost in the dark looking for direction that isn't coming? These leagues and sports have had immense trouble just agreeing on testing protocols, let alone what return to play functionally looks like. Should college athletes, amateurs according to the NCAA, be even forced to play in a situation like this when large events are almost entirely banned and they don't have the same control over their own destiny as pro athletes in unions have?<br />
<br />
Even with the large ethical, moral and health questions looming over sports' return, plenty of sports fans are eager to have them back. 78% of <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29502357/fan-desire-return-sports-increased-pandemic" target="_blank">self-claimed sports fans are excited about</a> their return in spite of the raging pandemic, which is up from 65% in April. Many seem perfectly content with the idea of bubbles, and playing in empty stadiums if it means sports returning. Plenty will watch in spite of the concerns, and will be happy to have them back even if they themselves may have moral quandaries about it. Sports have an outsized role in American culture, and people are craving some sort of normalcy which is a distant memory even four months after the pandemic began to rage. Perhaps sports are the perfect place to scratch that itch, since going to concerts, museums, plays, movies are still not possible.<br />
<br />
For all that is concerning about the return of sports in America, there is so much that they have done in this unique and challenging moment in American history. They have brought even more attention to the systemic racism that has plagued this nation, <a href="https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/Soccer/2020/07/09/Inter-Miami-Orlando-City-relaunch-MLS-with-protest-dramatic-clash/6591594292038/" target="_blank">with powerful symbols of support and solidarity</a>. Athletes have been using their platform more than ever to speak out, which is more needed than ever. None of these leagues returned to play to solely make statements of solidarity, but their return has brought us indelible moments that will stay in memory forever, and that's before baseball, football and basketball have brought their voices to the discussion.<br />
<br />
It's amazing that the actual play feels tertiary to these discussions, if that. How can anyone reasonably predict a 60 game MLB season with perhaps 16 playoff teams? There are certainly teams that will shine in the NBA and NHL bubbles, but these will be postseasons like no other. What can anyone glean from MLS is Back for a possible regular season resumption after it ends? Perhaps it's the wild unpredictability that adds to the eagerness for sports to return, even with everything else surrounding it.<br />
<br />
How should we view the return of sports in the US? It's certainly not business as usual, and these leagues, teams and players have had to walk an extremely fine line just to consider returning. Perhaps the best phrase to use in this case would be "your mileage may vary". Many have internalized the moral and ethical concerns about the return of sports and while they are there, they're happy to have them back while they're there. It's fair to ask question of these leagues and their plans, it's certainly fair to ask whether American society has "earned" sports' return, and if you don't like the answers, you have every right to be nervous and worried.<br />
<br />
For many, the return of sports is a sign of hope that better days are coming. Many know that nothing is normal right now, and won't be for a while, but they want that crumb of comfort, and a glimmer of light.<br />
<br />
We can at least be happy that light is back, even if it's dimmer than usual. </div>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-49419394800086900232020-03-19T15:33:00.004-04:002020-03-19T15:33:53.276-04:00You don't know what you have until it's gone: Life with sports during the Coronavirus Pandemic When I wrote about Kobe Bryant's death in January, I wondered aloud why even though his impact on me personally wasn't great, the emptiness I felt that day was nothing like I've experienced before. I concluded that it was because he was an ever present constant beyond basketball; his presence was taken for granted. His story was the prime example of "you don't know what you have until it's gone".<br />
<br />
In the last week, the sports world across the globe went from looking nervously at the coronavirus pandemic to being almost entirely shut down with a Thanos snap. There may be a few stragglers, but on the whole, professional and amateur sports are shut down as the world tries to fight back against this pandemic. Even at the lightest time in the sports calendar, there is more than enough going on to keep your attention. "You don't know what you have until it's gone" couldn't be a more perfect phrase to describe what sports means to us as a society; never thinking that they could ever go away like this, perhaps for months. We didn't know what we had with sports until they were gone. But without them, not have we gained a better appreciation for what they mean to us, but what they've done to get us through these difficult times.<br />
<br />
Sports are a cultural meeting ground, an exchange of ideas, beliefs and experiences where disparate people come together to laugh, cry and scream. What happens when that meeting ground is closed? Do those people get to come together anymore? Can they come together in another way? Do these people have another outlet with their time now that their primary love has vanished? What about those people whose lives depend on sports indirectly, like those arena and stadium workers who aren't going to get their paychecks, or the bar owner down by the stadium who overnight has no business? Perhaps until now, no one ever fully grasped how wide the sports net is cast not just in this country but across the globe and how many peoples lives depend on the machine continuing to hum.<br />
<br />
But morbidly, sports meant so little so recently. As the pandemic began to spread rapidly across North America and Europe, watching sports felt so empty. Sean Farnham of ESPN said this during halftime of a ACC tournament game after the news broke that Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19: "does any of this really matter?". In one fell swoop, sports went from considering playing in empty arenas to almost entirely going silent in a matter of hours. As much as us the collective misses sports, having them go on right now would be entirely pointless. Out collective energies need to be spent fighting this pandemic, not yelling at a referee for a bad call.<br />
<br />
A week without games of any kind should have felt emptier, lonelier and worse than it actually has. Perhaps that's the gravity of the global situation hitting home after too long of not taking it seriously. Perhaps that's the realization that sports of any kind like we took for granted for so long might not return until Memorial Day, perhaps even later, and that this week is the tip of the iceberg. Perhaps its knowing that the tangled web of those affected by this virus, from Gobert to Kevin Durant to a CAA Tournament referee would eventually affect almost everyone sooner rather than later, playing in empty stadiums or not. Could we as sports fans and human beings collectively hold that guilt that we endangered people because of our own blind devotion to "normal"?<br />
<br />
But without sports, who knows if the world, particularly the United States, takes this as seriously as they needed to. Without Rudy Gobert testing positive, the dominoes that knocked all sports out might not have reached the corridors of power, which forced them to activate every tool in their arsenal to deal with a public health crisis like none of us have ever seen. When the history of this pandemic is written, sports will play an incalculable roll in that history. Without Rudy Gobert, sports might still be playing in full arenas and stadiums, and how many people would have been infected, hospitalized and killed because of that?<br />
<br />
Our nation's first PSA about safe practice during the pandemic even came from a football coach:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
When Coach O speaks, we all listen.<br /><br />For more information on how to prevent the spread of COVID-19, visit: <a href="https://t.co/89sZCjY9n3">https://t.co/89sZCjY9n3</a><a href="https://twitter.com/Coach_EdOrgeron?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Coach_EdOrgeron</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LADeptHealth?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LADeptHealth</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/lagov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#lagov</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/lalege?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#lalege</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> <a href="https://t.co/OxJ5u2xBmo">pic.twitter.com/OxJ5u2xBmo</a></div>
— John Bel Edwards (@LouisianaGov) <a href="https://twitter.com/LouisianaGov/status/1238905211110019073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
When this pandemic is finally under control, sports will play an outsized role in bringing society back to normal. Coming together is something that puts so many people in danger during the pandemic, but when it's safe to put 19,000 people in an arena and 70,000 in a stadium, it will be a celebration of not just sports, but what life was like before social distancing and flattening the curve. That first sporting event in a full stadium will be a cathartic release for everyone, like when the Mets and Braves played at Shea Stadium right after 9/11. It will be a sign that the normal we took for granted is coming back, and that we can come together again. Our partisan allegiances will be put aside because even through the worst most bitter rivalries in sports, we're all there because we love these games, and what these games mean to us.<br />
<br />
For most of us, sports were an ever present constant in our lives that we are all desperately yearning for in these trying times. As much as we miss them, think of this even through the horrible news of the pandemic: they might be the reason we beat it in the first place, they will be one of the first places where society can let out a collective sigh of relief when we do beat it, and our love of them will grow exponentially when they come back because we now know what life is like without them. The small collective sacrifice we made when it was needed the most will save lives, and will help us get back to the normal we all crave.<br />
<br />
Even in their shocking absence, sports have taught us so much about the world that we didn't know or appreciate before. That might help us save lives during the pandemic, and be even better fans and people when it's done. We didn't know what we had with sports until they were gone, but even through the dark times without them, I can't wait to see what life is like with them again.<br />
<br />Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-15822668739139572952020-02-28T14:25:00.001-05:002020-02-28T14:25:15.247-05:002020 MLS PredictionsWith MLS' 25th season about to get underway, here's a prediction column with my likely to be wrong thoughts about the new season. If you want more detailed analysis of certain aspects of the new season, <a href="https://gianlucadimarzio.com/en/mls-2020-season-preview" target="_blank">you can find it here</a>. With that said, here are conference predictions and more for 2020:<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Eastern Conference:</b></div>
<div>
1. NYCFC</div>
<div>
2. Atlanta United</div>
<div>
3. Toronto FC</div>
<div>
4. Columbus </div>
<div>
5. Philadelphia</div>
<div>
6. New England Revolution</div>
<div>
7. DC United</div>
<div>
8. Inter Miami</div>
<div>
9. New York Red Bulls</div>
<div>
10. Orlando City</div>
<div>
11. Montreal Impact</div>
<div>
12. Chicago Fire</div>
<div>
13. FC Cincinnati</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Almost every team in the East has the potential to be something greater than what they were, or what their predictions say they could be. One could argue that almost every team in the East can make a playoff push. In reality, about nine teams have a realistic playoff argument, and only three or four can be guaranteed a spot. Inter Miami as an expansion team is closer to LAFC and Atlanta United than Minnesota or FC Cincinnati, but there are quite a few unknowns that keep them from being a playoff team at this time. The most surprising non-playoff team is probably the New York Red Bulls, who are at the bottom of the league in payroll, and constantly punch above their weight. But this season, with this deep a table, that doesn't seem feasible anymore.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Western Conference:</b></div>
<div>
1. Seattle</div>
<div>
2. LAFC</div>
<div>
3. LA Galaxy</div>
<div>
4. Portland</div>
<div>
5. FC Dallas</div>
<div>
6. Sporting KC</div>
<div>
7. Minnesota</div>
<div>
8. San Jose</div>
<div>
9. Real Salt Lake</div>
<div>
10. Colorado</div>
<div>
11. Houston</div>
<div>
12. Nashville</div>
<div>
13. Vancouver</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
With Seattle's shocking CCL exit, they now have more time to focus on MLS exploits, and they will be angry. They're going to be really angry. They often stumble in the early parts of MLS seasons and that could happen again, but it's more likely that their focus is sharpened even further now. LAFC will have more CCL exploits which will affect their league form, and winning a trophy is more important than another points record. Sporting Kansas City is one playoff team that didn't make it a season ago because the standards they have will allow them to improve defensively after a horrific season last year. RSL are a team that have intriguing roster questions to answer, and their preseason hasn't answered them in a cogent way. Nashville SC is much more like FC Cincinnati and Minnesota compared to their other expansion bretheren.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Supporter's Shield Winner: </b>NYCFC</div>
<div>
<b>East Champ: </b>NYCFC</div>
<div>
<b>West Champ: </b>LAFC<b> </b></div>
<div>
<b>MLS Cup 2020 Winner: </b>LAFC</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>MLS MVP: </b>Nico Lodeiro (SEA)</div>
<div>
<b>Golden Boot: </b>Josef Martinez (ATL)</div>
<div>
<b>Newcomer: </b>Chicharito Hernandez (LAG)</div>
<div>
<b>Comeback: </b>Milton Valenzuela (CLB)</div>
<div>
<b>Rookie: </b>Henry Kessler (NE)</div>
<div>
<b>Defender: </b>Eddie Segura (LAFC)</div>
<div>
<b>Goalkeeper: </b>Stefan Frei (SEA)</div>
<div>
<b>Coach: </b>Ronny Delia (NYCFC)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Last year, my predictions <a href="http://www.mattssportsmusings.com/2019/02/2019-mls-predictions.html" target="_blank">were fairly disastrous</a>. That's why there's never a bad time to try again. </div>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-65657497023947731232020-02-04T15:50:00.000-05:002020-02-04T16:04:49.052-05:00The NFL, London, the Jacksonville Jaguars and fandom Sports fandom is inherently irrational. Why would anyone invest so much emotional energy, time and money <a href="https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/03/sports-fans-sports-fans.html" target="_blank">into something they cannot control as so many do?</a> The euphoria and catharsis of watching your team win is one aspect of the phenomenon, but mostly, it's about the shared experience of being a part of something larger than yourself. For whatever reason someone is fan, there's someone else someone that shares your feelings, experiences and ideas and that makes this human experience a little less lonely.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So many sports stories are tied to civic pride, the pride in a community that has been passed down from generation to generation like a right of passage. That pride is tapped into and mined for all its worth, for better and for worse, by the sports leagues that use it to make the billions of dollars they make. Sports teams are considered integral parts of their communities, part of a cultural fabric that not only defines a team for its own community, but shines a light on that community elsewhere. Nothing else in the human experience is quite like sports fandom.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Why am I starting a piece about the NFL's London games with this screed on sports fandom? Because when the Jaguars announced they'd be playing two home games in London and not just one, the veneer, the appearance and the image of fandom the NFL is trying so desperately to market, cultivate and produce is shattered. If fandom is a matter of civic pride, how can anyone take pride in a team that plays one quarter of its meaningful games in "its" city somewhere else? How can these teams make so much money off of selling something they themselves can't even sell anymore? And how can this league claim it is about the fans, even when the veneer of that is so easily thrown away for uncertain propositions and unanswerable questions?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The NFL has wanted a team in London ever since it started playing games there in 2007. A team in London means an untapped revenue source is now tapped for all its worth, and the NFL can expand its reach beyond North American shores in a way that other leagues do that they haven't. They believe what they're selling that has made them so much money in North America is going to make them even more in Europe. That's the short of it. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Every business wants to make as much money as possible, and some do a better job of it than others. Some businesses also hide their inherent greed behind a message that's easily digestable and marketable. For the NFL, that's the fandom story from earlier. Trying to move a team to London is an attempt to build that narrative in a new market, but is at the same taking it away from a place where they had already built it up: in Jacksonville. Take away the logistical hurdles a team would have in being in London, even if they're primarily based in the United States, the labor laws, the currency conversion, the collective bargaining issues, take that all away for a second. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If the NFL's core business is getting people to spend all this money on their product in season tickets, concessions, merchandise and in time, and its based largely in civic pride, how does moving two of those critical money making dates to another city help a team do that? How does that build a long term fanbase in that city based on said marketing plan when one quarter of those dates are somewhere else, even if the team is branding itself based on the city they're supposedly based in? In other words: how does playing two home games in London make the Jacksonville Jaguars more likely to stay in Jacksonville? How does it help them win a Super Bowl, which is the ascribed goal of every NFL team?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Jaguars have talked so often about "local revenue", which is marketing speak for ticket sales, sponsorships, things of this nature. The Jaguars are low in this regard not just because their market is small compared to other teams, but under Shad Khan's ownership, the Jaguars are 38-90. Most people in Jacksonville and the surrounding area have decided to not spend bad money on a team that hasn't proven it can win, which is the entire point of running a sports team and the entire point of following a team in the first place. The London games are basically an accounting trick for the Jaguars to increase their local revenue to be "competitive" with other teams, allowing them to invest more money into the region, the team, etc. But there are multiple problems with this line of thinking.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If winning brings in revenue, and moving two home games to London doesn't help the Jaguars in any way get closer to winning a Super Bowl (they're 3-4 in London since 2013), how do these two things line up? They don't. And there is another issue: NFL teams don't need local revenue to make money, certainly not in the way they have become multi billion dollar business on their own, let alone the league as whole. In the Jaguars example, Shad Khan paid $875 million for the team in 2011. It's now worth, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2019/09/04/the-nfls-most-valuable-teams-2019-cowboys-lead-league-at-55-billion/#6e23ba142f1b" target="_blank">according to Forbes</a>, $2.325 billion. His team, though it has a winning percentage of less than .300 since Shad Khan bought the team, and has so many local revenue issues it must play two games in London to cover that shortfall, is now worth $1.5 billion more than Khan paid for it at the very least. This is before the NFL signs new TV deals that could be worth $10 billion combined or more per season all predicated on TV ratings in the United States that forms the backbone of the league's advertising behemoth. How does that improve with a team playing two games in London, especially a team in a market where every game is so crucial? Other small market teams like the Packers, Bills, Bengals, etc. do not seem to have this problem. When it was clear the NFL's Toronto experiment with the Bills failed, they stopped it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Jaguars are not any more popular a team in London than they were when they started playing games there, which was supposed to be the entire reason the NFL played games there in the first place. If you weren't a football fan to begin with, why would your entry point to the sport be a team that is this bad no matter where they play? And if you're already a fan of a team, you're not giving up your allegiance just because a team started playing games a little closer to you. If your team is not playing in those games against the Jaguars Jacksonville or London, you're not going. The NFL even gave money to Tottenham Hotspur to retrofit their billion dollar new stadium for NFL games and the Jaguars won't even play there because Shad Khan owns a different London soccer team!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If the NFL's entire marketing empire was built on capitalizing on the irrationality of fandom, the house of cards falls apart when a team is splitting its time between two cities where it cannot plausibly claim to be one or the another. This was the issue with the Chargers, Rams and Raiders in their disastrous moves to their new cities. When it became clear the league and the teams were not operating in good faith with the fans and their cities, people opted out. The Chargers are a lame duck in Los Angeles without a fanbase in the place they left or they place they went to, so much so that their new shared stadium with the Rams is becoming a financial drain on both because PSL's for the Chargers <a href="https://www.si.com/johnwallstreet/sports-business/chargers-psl-sales" target="_blank">aren't selling even at dramatically cut prices</a>. 40% of Raiders PSL's in their new Las Vegas stadium <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/stadium/raiders-see-60-percent-of-psl-sales-from-inside-nevada-1937163/" target="_blank">come from outside Nevada</a>, showing the Raider brand is far stronger than the city they play in, but how long can that last? </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Shad Khan and Mark Lamping have talked all the time about being invested in Jacksonville, but how can they be when the biggest civic asset, its football team, isn't playing 25% of its meaningful games there? Does playing games in London bring any key business to the city of Jacksonville that would help the Jaguars and the city be more successful? Does it show a commitment to the civic and business community that investing in the team is worthwhile with advertising dollars, building projects and down the line a new stadium? The Jaguars seem to think so, but do the other stakeholders, including the fans? Based on the anger coming out of Jacksonville with the news, even though it was expected, <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/jaguars-fans-react-with-vitriol-to-team-taking-a-second-home-game-to-london-in-2020" target="_blank">it doesn't look like it</a>. It's made worse by Khan somehow expecting a positive reaction from the news, which is the height of tone-deafness. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So are these London games a not-so-subtle push from the Jaguars ownership to get tax payer dollars invested into new projects designed to make the Jaguars money and will probably not return their investment to the city proper, using the threat of relocation as a specter to get those deals? Is the NFL using the Jaguars as a guinea pig to test the overall viability of a permanent franchise in London with eyes to eventually move them there as they greased the wheels for it? Are both entirely clueless as to how to market themselves locally and abroad? It's not entirely clear. The NFL's history of moving teams from city to city is lurid, and its history of coaxing cities out of taxpayer money for stadium projects that don't create any appreciable benefit is even more lurid. What the league has been really good at for a long time is hiding that greed behind the veneer of fandom, civic pride, love of the game, etc. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But in recent years, that veneer has been shattered, and this episode with the Jaguars and London is breaking it even further. Good fans and a vulnerable city are being used and abused by people who have far less to lose than they do, and the NFL is complicit in forcing the situation deteriorate to a point where the fans in the city the Jaguars claim to represent don't want them and the place they want to go doesn't want them either. And if the NFL's entire money making empire is built on the irrationality of fandom, then the house of cards quickly falls apart with no way to put it back together again. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The worst feeling for a fan is apathy. If they're happy or angry, they're invested. Apathy is the opposite of that. When apathy seeps in, the money making machine doesn't work so smoothly anymore. Fandom shouldn't feel like a job, it shouldn't feel like the travails of every day life. Watching a team chronically lose is bad enough, but when the central reasons for being a fan are slowly sucked away, apathy becomes the only way to cope and eventually move on.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Every move the Jaguars have made under Shad Khan has replaced intensity with apathy, love with anger and hope with despair. And what for, a move to London that may never materialize or never work, all for a few more dollars out of a city to build projects that should have been built ages ago? What is the point of that? Fans want to talk about wins and losses, players and coaches, not about tax payer dollars going to a <a href="https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2020/2/4/21122730/jaguars-owner-shad-khan-president-mark-lamping-london-initiative-moving-forward" target="_blank">building project that should have been done already because if it is finished, it might keep the team around</a>. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Shad Khan and the NFL better be careful. They are acting like everything they have, they've made and earned is a given; a rite of life. During the Great Recession, many business acted like that, hence the term "too big to fail". Is the NFL too big to fail? It might not seem it, but based on the way this league and this franchise is treating the London question, they're acting like it. Jacksonville can eventually move on, but can the league?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The NFL can be successful internationally and its Jacksonville franchise can be successful locally without this policy of mutually assured destruction. They don't seem interested in trying. And it is costing the league money, but more than anything else, trust. With that, the entire empire begins to crumble. </div>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-48657390487803347082020-01-27T14:59:00.001-05:002020-01-27T14:59:33.708-05:00What does it mean to always be there?Kobe Bryant's tragic death left so many people shocked, heartbroken and empty. I spent all of yesterday trying to parse out why I felt as empty as I have ever felt in my life before. Kobe Bryant was a generation defining athlete, but he never played for a team I supported. He is a Delaware Valley native, as am I, and I know people who had a much closer relationship to him than I did. I never even saw him play in person. I had no idea why I felt as I did; bereft of thought, ideas and even a concept of reality.<br />
<br />
After an entire day of retrospectives, tributes and unvarnished pain from so many across the world, I think I figured out why I felt the way I did and still do: Kobe Bryant's presence was so outsized that it felt like he would always be around; he was so ubiquitous and influential that it felt like he was a fact of life. He wasn't just immortal, he was a constant like gravity or the earth's axial tilt. To see him go, so fast, so suddenly and so young is not something any of us were and are able to understand.<br />
<br />
Kobe Bryant was always there. Even if he wasn't playing, he was a constant presence over everything in sports. You could see him at any given NBA game, or on the sidelines for a US Women's National Team game, or giving a bear hug to PK Subban or Alex Ovechkin because he was that ubiquitous. Athletes the world over have cited him as inspiration for what they do and why they are who they are, even if some of them can't make a shot if they yell "mamba". He wasn't just a generation defining athlete, he took that and expanded upon it after he was done playing, the likes of which no one had done before. Nothing would ever deny him in anything he ever did, and that included being a presence absolutely everywhere.<br />
<br />
In his best moments, he was always there. In his worst moments, he was always there. When he wasn't his best self, a good teammate or even a good person, he was there. Whether he learned from his mistakes on or off the court, he was just there. Whether you personally believed he repented for his actions and learned from them, he made us ask questions no one else could. Such is a man who earned the right to be an outsized presence in our collective lives that his every move was important somewhere to someone, for better or for worse.<br />
<br />
Perhaps some of that intense and insatiable competitive fire that drove him to his greatest successes and also dragged him to his lowest moments had flickered in retirement, but he was still a constant presence because he earned that right to be one. It wasn't just in basketball; he was announcing a major sponsorship deal for his sports drink Body Armor in MLS a week or two earlier, for instance. But even when he wasn't directly there, doing something that reminded you of the five time NBA champion and to-be Hall of Famer, he was still there because his impact, his influence and his legacy transcended his otherwordly skill set.<br />
<br />
What he did, what he started and what he meant will not go anywhere though he himself is no longer with us. Such is a human being with such a giant impact in so many places that his untimely death may have physically registered on the Richter Scale. Our fundamental understanding of what is, what was and what will be feels irreparably shaken because Kobe Bryant is no longer physically here, even if so much about him always will be.<br />
<br />
Every human being is there for a small group of family, friends, colleagues, etc. Some manage to create a larger impact than just that, and there are a select few who rise to the level of what Kobe Bryant became; someone whose death took away so much from so many who he touched, because his presence became so large, so great and so impactful that he himself felt like a fact of life; a constant and something in a world so divided that everyone agreed on without hesitation.<br />
<br />
My prevailing emotions weren't so much sadness and despair as they were confusion, emptiness and bewilderment when I saw those tweets scroll by. I couldn't process how or why something like this could happen, because someone like Kobe Bryant is more than just an athlete, a father, or even a human being. He had become something more than even a superhero. He felt like a fact of life because he was always there. He was going to do something that made you go "yep, that's the Mamba", even if not as often as he once did because that's what he was and what he was always going to be.<br />
<br />
That's gone now. It can't make sense to so many because a fundamental aspect of our lives and our understanding of it is gone now. It may never make sense.<br />
<br />
How long will it take for us to feel whole again? For some, perhaps never again. His legacy, his impact and his name are eternal, and so too might his presence even after death, but that might not even be enough because he is no longer here. He was going to do something that re-enforced to us all that he was still the Mamba because he is, was and will be, and now he can't.<br />
<br />
Perhaps that's why I and so many others felt so empty and drained. Life will go on, and there will be a new normal without Kobe Bryant around, but it won't be the same without him being there, because he always was, and we figured he'd always be.<br />
<br />
But he's not anymore. That doesn't make sense. It may never make sense.Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-44272760225215632692019-12-30T14:16:00.002-05:002019-12-30T14:16:48.835-05:002019 NFL Season Predictions in Review plus Playoff PredictionsIt's time for a tradition unlike any other: reviewing preseason predictions of mine that went haywire almost immediately. In the NFL, even when we think we have a good idea of how things are going to go, we don't. More than any other sport, the NFL makes us look like fools, particularly the owner of this humble blog. So how bad did it go? Let's see.<br />
<br />
<b>AFC Playoff Predictions (with actual order following):</b><br />
1. Kansas City 13-3 (Baltimore 14-2)<br />
2. New England 12-4 (Kansas City 12-4)<br />
3. Pittsburgh 10-6 (New England 12-4)<br />
4. Houston 9-7 (Houston 10-6)<br />
5. LA Chargers 11-5 (Buffalo 10-6)<br />
6. Cleveland 9-7 (Tennessee 9-7)<br />
<br />
A good healthy does of being wrong here. I, like many, bought into the Cleveland hype, but hedged on them winning the division. They happened to be the Browns again with shinier toys, and the Steelers were decimated by injuries at the skill positions, causing them both to miss the playoffs. Lamar Jackson absolutely did show improvement as a passer, leading the NFL in touchdown passes while his team ran for the most yards in NFL history. No doubting Lamar again. The Chargers also lost many games in typical Chargers fashion as that roster aged and suffered more and more bad luck by the week. It might be the end of an era for that team.<br />
<br />
Buffalo turned out to have just enough offense to complement their fantastic defense, and they feasted on a bad enough schedule to get into the dance. Predicting the Titans would make the playoffs wouldn't have been a bold decision, but getting there with Ryan Tannehill emerging would be. The other three in the AFC were about as lock solid picks as you can get.<br />
<br />
<b>NFC Playoff Predictions (with actual order following):</b><br />
1. New Orleans 12-4 (San Francisco 13-3)<br />
2. Philadelphia 12-4 (Green Bay 13-3)<br />
3. LA Rams 11-5 (New Orleans 13-3)<br />
4. Green Bay 11-5 (Philadelphia 9-7)<br />
5. Atlanta 10-6 (Seattle 11-5)<br />
6. Minnesota 10-6 (Minnesota 10-6)<br />
<br />
Two whiffs in the NFC to talk about. San Francisco had the potential to emerge after last season, and most certainly did with a dominant defense and a versatile, varied and creative offense from Kyle Shanahan. They're the NFC's favorite to head to the Super Bowl, which is impressive after they spent half a decade in the wilderness. The LA Rams started to fall apart around the edges after their contract situation got messy, and it's only going to get messier while they have no first round pick until 2022. They also have Kyler Murray and Arizona sneaking up behind them.<br />
<br />
I'm also mildly embarrassed about buying into the Falcons hype, well not so much hype as believing last season was derailed solely because of injuries. They finished strong, but that doesn't say much, because they did last year to some degree as well. They're also bringing back their entire brain trust, which also doesn't make much sense. Seattle was on the outside looking in for me preseason, and they did get in, but they are too thin at too many positions and had just enough luck to win just enough games to get in.<br />
<br />
<b>Award Predictions (with comments following);</b><br />
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (never a bad guess, but Lamar Jackson locked this up in November)<br />
OPOY: Julio Jones (it won't be him. It could be absolutely anyone though, plenty of choices)<br />
DPOY: Aaron Donald (another solid guess, but it's looking like Chandler Jones of Arizona)<br />
OROY: Miles Sanders (solid, but AJ Brown of Tennessee, Josh Jacobs of Oakland have good shouts)<br />
DROY: Josh Allen (he would win it if he didn't play for a bad team. It will be Nick Bosa)<br />
Comeback: Jimmy Garoppolo (Another QB who made a great comeback will win it, Ryan Tannehill)<br />
Coach; Freddie Kitchens (the less said about this, the better)<br />
<br />
My preseason Super Bowl pick was the Andy Reid Bowl, Kansas City and Philadelphia. Both teams at least made the playoffs, but it doesn't look like this is a likely outcome. What do I think will happen now?<br />
<br />
<b>AFC:</b><br />
3) New England over 6) Tennessee<br />
4) Houston over 5) Buffalo<br />
<br />
1) Baltimore over 4) Houston<br />
2) Kansas City over 3) New England<br />
<br />
2) Kansas City over 1) Baltimore<br />
<br />
<b>NFC:</b><br />
3) New Orleans over 6) Minnesota<br />
4) Philadelphia over 5) Seattle<br />
<br />
1) San Francisco over 4) Philadelphia<br />
3) New Orleans over 2) Green Bay<br />
<br />
3) New Orleans over 1) San Francisco<br />
<br />
<b>Super Bowl 54:</b><br />
Kansas City over New Orleans<br />
<br />
So I didn't change my pick all that much. You can call that hedging. I call it trying to retroactively make myself look good.Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-21761287678705208862019-11-27T16:16:00.002-05:002019-11-27T16:16:31.134-05:00Hockey's Culture ShockIn hockey's recent history, no two weeks has fundamentally shaken the foundations of the game more. First, Don Cherry was fired from Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada after racist remarks about immigrants during Coaches Corner. Cherry's comments and opinions weren't new, but the environment around him changed while he did not, and after not apologizing for them, he was let go.<br />
<br />
Hindsight being 20/20, Cherry's firing was the first domino to fall in a series of earthquakes shaking the very foundations of what hockey has been for generations. When Mike Babcock was fired from the Toronto Maple Leafs last week, stories began to trickle about his tenure and what happened behind the scenes, and some of those stories were not pretty.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
I heard about this Babcock story when it happened, but I didn’t want to bring it up until I could confirm it was true.<br />
<br />
The rookie he did this to was Mitch Marner. <a href="https://t.co/d6TcayagcS">https://t.co/d6TcayagcS</a></div>
— Ian Tulloch📊 (@IanGraph) <a href="https://twitter.com/IanGraph/status/1198770855691591681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
Babcock asked then rookie Mitch Marner what players had the best and worst work ethic on the team, which was then publicly shared. <a href="https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1199046130526511110" target="_blank">Babcock did apologize</a>, but the damage was already done. Babcock has a reputation for "mind games" like this that precede him, but there can be no doubt other past and current coaches have done something similar, but have not made it past the dressing room walls.<br />
<br />
By late Monday night, the avalanche was getting bigger and bigger. Akim Aliu, a former NHLer, said that a Babcock protege, Bill Peters, <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/akim-aliu-speaks-publicly-on-allegations-against-calgary-flames-head-coach-bill-peters-1.1403974" target="_blank">targeted racial slurs at him</a> when they were both in the AHL in Rockford. Next, a former player of his in Carolina, Michal Jordan, said that Peters physically attacked him:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
1) Never wish anything bad to the person but you get what you deserve Bill.After years making it to the NHL had experience with the worst coach ever by far.Kicking me and punching other player to the head during the game...</div>
— Michal Jordan (@TheBigCzech23) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBigCzech23/status/1199412238228099077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
When current Hurricanes coach and then assistant <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/brindamour-jordans-allegations-peters-sure-happened/" target="_blank">Rod Brind'Amour confirmed multiple incidents like Jordan's occurred</a>, the avalanche grew larger still.<br />
<br />
Many of these stories stayed behind dressing room walls for so long because of the culture that enabled this conduct in the first place. People in hockey have looked the same, talked the same and acted the same for generations. When these people stop playing, they become coaches, administrators, managers and in many cases their children, who grow up knowing nothing different, come into the sport in the same way. What is created is an insular, territorial culture of deference to power, fear of speaking up and out and a siege mentality that forever prevented the outside world from being let inside hockey's ivory towers, and this culture festered without anyone able on the outside or inside to stop it.<br />
<br />
Hockey is now being forced to reckon with itself over its own past, its own mythologized ethos and existence and its place in a world that is changing while it steadfastly refuses to.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
If you're looking for reasons a player might keep racial slurs to himself for 10 years rather than sharing the story publicly as it happened, this quote from Gare Joyce's book Future Greats and Heartbreaks offers a good one.<br />
<br />
The player being discussed is Akim Aliu. <a href="https://t.co/jYp8UjzI5c">pic.twitter.com/jYp8UjzI5c</a></div>
— Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1199414358461169664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
I have permission to share this message with you all<br />
<br />
Reading this makes my blood boil<br />
<br />
This brave young man wants to share his story about the abuse he endured in hockey, in hopes of showing others to not be afraid<br />
<br />
Thank you 🙏🏻 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/hockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#hockey</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/abuse?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#abuse</a> <a href="https://t.co/OeyInek0dW">pic.twitter.com/OeyInek0dW</a></div>
— Daniel Carcillo (@CarBombBoom13) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarBombBoom13/status/1199482298598641670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Stories like those are far too common, and far too commonly stay behind closed doors, thanks to some of the most common tropes in hockey culture: players don't want to say anything for fear of being "a distraction", for fear of taking away from the team, and for fear of what happen when you do stand up to authority figures who aren't used to being crossed and aren't prepared to be.<br />
<br />
In the case of the Marner-Babcock episode, one player did try to stand up and protect the player, and he paid the price by being scratched and ostracized:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Matt Martin is a hero <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Isles?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Isles</a> <a href="https://t.co/74CQeBQUAg">pic.twitter.com/74CQeBQUAg</a></div>
— Matt O'Leary (@MattOLearyNY) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattOLearyNY/status/1199455842883514369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
Because hockey is such an insular world, with such little new blood being accepted into its inner circle, people who grew up used to this power dynamic end up going from players to coaches and managers, therefore continuing the cycle. In this cycle, players are then "programmed" to accept the culture they're in and play a role in it knowing the only way they can achieve their goals is by playing the game they're entered into at whatever cost.<br />
<br />
That isn't how this sport has to be, but it is certainly what the culture around hockey has developed into. With these stories now becoming public, the fallout from them growing by the minute, and with certainly more to come, hockey and the people in charge of the game now have to address not just how it got to this point, but why, and how the ball of yarn can be unraveled.<br />
<br />
Last spring, in the same plot of concrete outside Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, fans gathered to watch the Leafs and Raptors play in the playoffs, but the groups of fans doing so looked entirely different. For the first time in generations, hockey as a sport had to ask questions about why things looked so different, and why its position as a dominant cultural pillar in Canada was now under some doubt. The culture surrounding the game, and the people in charge of pushing that culture, now had to answer existential questions about themselves and their actions for the first time, and they're going to be under the microscope more and more as these stories multiply.<br />
<br />
How can hockey begin to change, and how can the people in this sport begin to find the solutions to problems they never knew existed before? An important first step is to bring more people under the tent; people from outside hockey's small ecosystem. People with different backgrounds, experiences and ideas need to be not just on the ice, but in positions of power in hockey associations to change policies, to embrace new ideas and create channels for more people to brought in. Those people in power will have to cede some to others, because it's clear that many are not equipped to deal with the issues that lead to chronic abuses of power.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
The biggest fallacy about coaching <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/hockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#hockey</a> is the idea that u need to break down minors & then build them back up in order 4 athletes to b productive<br /><br />Learning from failure is a key ingredient in becoming an exceptional athlete, not having to endure unnecessary suffering<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/abuse?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#abuse</a></div>
— Daniel Carcillo (@CarBombBoom13) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarBombBoom13/status/1199653982215520258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
There is a line between tough love and abuse, and in hockey, that line has been blurred to the point where it is unrecognizable. With a new generation of players emerging having been empowered through social media, and seeing what their peers in other sports, particularly basketball, are capable of, they don't willingly subscribe to the hockey power dynamic without asking questions first. Those questions create tension, tension creates friction, and friction creates heat. In that heat, there is pressure, and the pressure might now finally cause changes in a sport where they are long overdue.<br />
<br />
If new voices can be brought into places like Hockey Canada, USA Hockey, the NHL and the like, they can bring perspectives to a world that has had so few new ones, and those players who don't fit the typical hockey stereotype can now see that they belong just as much as their stereotypical peers. That means more women, minorities and people who came into hockey from different angles have to be given the chance to lead and the chance to influence people in the sport who otherwise haven't know any different. Some of that is happening because modern players are so different than previous generations, but they cannot do this own their own.<br />
<br />
More friction is to come, because people who have power don't give it up willingly, or easily. More prominent people in the sport might not come through the other side with their reputations clean anymore. But if this is the first step in hockey reckoning with itself, its past and its present, then perhaps finally its future will not be what it has so desperately clung to for so long.<br />
<br />
When Robin Lehner told the world of his mental health struggles, the sport wrapped its arms around him in support. During the Humboldt bus crash, the hockey world cared for its own and showed why so many people come to this game again and again in spite of its costs. There is plenty of good in this sport and it needs to be amplified, and now is the best chance yet to celebrate that and push it forward.<br />
<br />
Hockey own's mythology is being shattered. There is a chance to build something new in its place, and there's no better time than the present to build something new for this sport which desperately needs it.<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-12954660121977927022019-10-25T17:17:00.003-04:002019-10-25T17:17:49.389-04:00The Human Element, or lack thereofWhat drives progress? An insatiable determination to push boundaries, defy expectations and create something new, or making something existing better. Human beings are hard wired to do this; if not, we'd still be living in caves in Africa. We've always asked about what's in the next valley, what's over that ridge, and that is part of how we as a species have gone to the top of the food chain.<br />
<br />
Our hunger to explore, push forward and cross boundaries is what has made us successful. That innate desire is manifested into different forms in the 21st century world, and in a sports context, that can be seen in explosion of analytics and new thinking into roster construction and evaluation. Perhaps no team has embodied that more than the Houston Astros, who went all in on analytics, new thinking, innovation and an "us against the world" mentality like no other. It has taken them from doormat to World Series champion and one of the best teams in the sport. But that has come with a cost.<br />
<br />
Not only have they made enemies in the sport thanks to their approach and their attitude concerning it, but also because in that culture, they seem to lack something critical: empathy. The actions of their AGM Brandon Taubman, the subsequent defending of his actions and the sudden reversal of their stance only three days later by firing him unceremoniously on a World Series off day, has brought to light not just questions about the Astros culture, but the culture of modern sports and beyond: have we lost the human element?<br />
<br />
There was no doubt that Taubman's actions, and subsequent lying about them, merited his firing. But, even in his guilt, he was enabled by those above him who will skate on, with nary a consequence other than some egg in their face. They created an environment in which concerns about the human condition are secondary at best. Trading for Roberto Osuna in the first place, in the middle of a 75 game suspension for domestic violence, was a mistake but one that in the Astros culture was never perceived as one. Osuna was an asset that the Astros could buy low on and use in their ultimate pursuit: winning. Whatever the costs were in this acquisition, they were viewed solely from a transactional context, not a human one. If he could get a few strikeouts and help Houston win, no one would remember, or bring up, that he may have committed a felonious offense.<br />
<br />
If anyone brought up that the Astros were, as an organization, incapable of understanding human beings as human beings rather than just assets, or pawns on a chess board, they'd symbolically point to the rings and banners at Minute Maid Park as a defense. What does it matter that we're not "people person(s)" if we're winning? As it turned out, such a culture breeds contempt, defensiveness and a stunning lack of empathy, all borne out not just in Brandon Taubman's callous comments towards a group of female reporters, but the organization's even more callous and shallow response. The Astros were in this together, in this foxhole, fighting against the rest of baseball. More often not, they won. Except here, they were catastrophically defeated.<br />
<br />
Tim Kurkjian has been talking about baseball's lack of feel for people in recent years as the league has gone more knee deep in numbers, information and innovation. For all of the transactions, numbers and information, baseball is still one human being with a bat in his hand at a time against nine other human beings trying to hit a ball, with the key there being human beings. As much as viewing sports from a transactional, asset management perspective has invigorated discussion about these sports, they have sucked away too much of what makes sports so unique in the human experience: human beings and their stories. With Taubman, Luhnow and Crane, there was never a concern about other human beings and their reaction to acquiring Roberto Osuna, and then using him as a shield to defend the organization from their own self-inflicted wounds. The only concerns were winning, but not just that, winning in their way.<br />
<br />
Sports teams exist to win, of course. Some do find a way to re-invent the wheel and win "their way". But at what point does that mindset cost too much from a human perspective? At what point can the human cost no longer be ignored? When do people become empowered in this or any other sport not for their intellect, scouting acumen or innovative ideas, but for their empathy? Their understanding of someone else and ability to make them feel comfortable, to be their best selves? And as baseball has to deal with the fallout from the Tyler Skaggs situation with the Angels, a situation very different yet eerily similar to the one in Houston, one has to wonder whether that empathy that made this sport, and so many sports so inter-connected with our culture, our identity and our psyche, is where it needs to be,<br />
<br />
One Astros player said this week, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27926780/the-houston-astros-front-office-missteps-began-long-brandon-taubman-comments" target="_blank">according to ESPN's Jeff Passan</a>, "forget about the a-holes in the front office. This is about us". There may be no quote more apt in vividly describing this situation, and so many others in sports, than that. For all of the information, the knowledge, innovation and ideas percolating in player acquisition and evaluation brought over from business, science and elsewhere, sports are still human beings playing games.<br />
<br />
Too often, we forget that. And when we do forget that, do we have the ability to see situations like the one Houston coming? And if we do, do we have the tools to prevent them from happening again?Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-25918574283382387402019-10-19T12:12:00.003-04:002019-10-19T12:12:27.178-04:00Reviewing my 2019 MLS Predictions and attempting to predict the playoffsIf you have noticed, my picks and predictions in recent times have been pretty terrible in all leagues. MLS is no different. Looking back at these predictions makes me want to cry, which is why I'm happy I put the disclaimer "here are some predictions that are sure to be wrong in May, let alone October". They were!<br />
<br />
<b>East Playoff Teams (My Predictions): </b>ATL, NYRB, DC, PHI, CLB, MTL, NYCFC<br />
<b>East Playoff Teams (Actual): </b>NYCFC, ATL, PHI, TOR, DC, NYRB, NE<br />
<br />
Toronto and New England get in over Columbus and Montreal. Not as bad as it could have been.<br />
<br />
<b>West Playoff Teams (My Predictions): </b>SKC, LAFC, POR, SEA, LAG, RSL, MIN<br />
<b>West Playoff Teams (Actual): </b>LAFC, SEA, RSL, MIN, LAG, POR, FCD<br />
<br />
So only one team wrong, but it was the one I predicted to win the Supporter's Shield. That was #CCLFever. But the other playoff teams, including the Loons, I actually got right. I'm mildly proud of myself.<br />
<br />
<b>Award Predictions: </b><br />
MVP: Zlatan (he played really well! But Carlos Vela had a historically good season)<br />
Coach: Jim Curtin (he could certainly win it. But how can it not be Bob Bradley?)<br />
Defender: Walker Zimmerman (he would have won it if the season was 20 games long. Ike Opara did).<br />
Rookie: Andre Shinyashiki (I got one right!)<br />
Golden Boot: Zlatan (Carlos Vela did set the single season goal scoring record)<br />
Comeback: Jordan Morris (more than likely)<br />
<br />
I did predict Sporting Kansas City to beat the Red Bulls in MLS Cup 2019, which was extremely wrong and the playoffs haven't even happened yet. So here I am trying again, and sure to get it wrong:<br />
<br />
<b>East:</b><br />
2) Atlanta United over 7) New England<br />
3) Philadelphia over 6) New York Red Bulls<br />
4) Toronto FC over 5) DC United<br />
<br />
4) Toronto FC over 1) NYCFC<br />
2) Atlanta United over 3) Philadelphia<br />
<br />
2) Atlanta United over 4) Toronto FC<br />
<br />
<b>West:</b><br />
2) Seattle over 7) FC Dallas<br />
6) Portland over 3) Real Salt Lake<br />
5) LA Galaxy over 4) Minnesota<br />
<br />
2) Seattle over 6) Portland<br />
1) LAFC over 5) LA Galaxy<br />
<br />
1) LAFC over 2) Seattle<br />
<br />
<b>MLS Cup 2019: </b>LAFC over Atlanta United 3-1<br />
<br />
If my playoff predictions in baseball are any indication, good luck to these two teams, especially Atlanta United, who might not be immune to the Atlanta sports curse after all.<br />
<br />Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-89474701650016418942019-10-01T21:03:00.002-04:002019-10-01T21:03:59.793-04:002019-20 NHL Season PredictionsOctober is the best month of the year if you're one of the few people who still clicks on this blog, because you get prediction columns and reviews of prediction columns. There's no better content than that, right? When you check back in April, be sure to take it easy on me, because I might be less wrong than someone else, I hope.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Metropolitan Division:</b></div>
<div>
1. Washington</div>
<div>
2. Carolina</div>
<div>
3. Pittsburgh</div>
<div>
4. New York Rangers </div>
<div>
5. New Jersey</div>
<div>
6. Philadelphia</div>
<div>
7. Columbus</div>
<div>
8. New York Islanders</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There is no more egalitarian division in hockey than the Metro. Every team thinks they have a good chance at the playoffs, and they're all right. There are plenty of reasons for fatalists to satiate their own fears about each of these teams though. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Washington probably has the fewest flaws of any in this division. While their playoff voodoo returned even after winning the Cup, they're still a dominant regular season team. Some of the depth pieces have shuffled, but the core remains the same, though one year older. Since there's no one that can truly contend on that level with them, they're favorites. Carolina has made plenty of moves, and while it's unlikely they're replicating last year's playoff run, they're still incredibly deep, especially on the back end. It's hard to see a team this deep missing the postseason. Pittsburgh is on the decline, and whether it's gradual or sudden is still an open question. With Crosby and Malkin, they're still a playoff team, though their supporting cast continues to decline.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Everyone else is fighting for a wild card that will be hotly contested. The Rangers have made some significant upgrades with Kaapo Kakko, Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox, but they're still not great defensively and many of their young prospects haven't developed in the smoothest of ways. New Jersey certainly went for flash in acquiring PK Subban and Nikita Gusev along with drafting Jack Hughes, but are they deep enough to succeed during the long grind of 82 games, and do they have any hope in net? Philadelphia made plenty of moves on the ice and behind the bench, but it all doesn't add up to very much being different. Columbus is down Panarin, Duchene and Bobrovsky, and while they believe in their kids, can anyone believe in their goaltending? And the Islanders added no one except a goalie to replace one that nearly won the Vezina last season and probably should still be there. Is the system truly king?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Atlantic Division:</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
1. Tampa Bay</div>
<div>
2. Toronto</div>
<div>
3. Boston</div>
<div>
4. Florida (WC)</div>
<div>
5. Montreal (WC)</div>
<div>
6. Buffalo</div>
<div>
7. Detroit</div>
<div>
8. Ottawa</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Unlike the Metro, the Atlantic is relatively straightforward. Last year's top three will be the top three again, there will be two teams fighting for a playoff spot, and everyone else is rebuilding to some degree. The order in which the Atlantic's top three will be slotted is a matter of debate. Tampa is still the class of the league, but will what happened in the series against Columbus hang over their heads? We may not find out until April, but the roster is still fairly loaded in spite of the cap crunch they had this summer, so a big drop off isn't expected. Toronto will score a ton of goals, but they may also give up a ton. Have their moves made them considerably better than the team of the last three years? That is also a matter of debate. They will have enough this year to nudge the Bruins out of home ice in their inevitable playoff series. The Bruins are still the Bruins, which means they'll be a tough out every night.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Florida spent big bucks to end their losing drought, and with the rest of the East taking a slight step back, and the Panthers adding one of the league's best goalies and coaches, that should be enough to plug a leaky ship and guide it back to the postseason, though the Panthers always find a way to underwhelm. Montreal got career years out of multiple forwards last year and it wasn't enough to make the postseason, and many of their hopes will ride on young centers Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki if they are to get back to the postseason. It will not be easy. Buffalo has a new coach with a great pedigree, but they don't have a great blueline or goaltending tandem yet. They're closer than they've been to the postseason, but they're both not there yet. Detroit and Ottawa are both in the nascent stages of long rebuilds, and while the long term is bright, the present is concerned with lottery balls.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>Central Division:</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
1. Nashville</div>
<div>
2. Colorado</div>
<div>
3. Dallas</div>
<div>
4. St. Louis (WC) </div>
<div>
5. Winnipeg</div>
<div>
6. Chicago</div>
<div>
7. Minnesota</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The NHL's toughest division holds its title for another season, because it holds the defending champs and some of the league's toughest regular season outs. Nashville has regressed since it's 2017 trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but adding Matt Duchene should stem the tide a little, and the loss of PK Subban is offset by the arrival of Dante Fabbro. The Avs are a team everyone loves, and for good reason. They have an incredible future with great players for the present and future. They will be one of the fastest and exciting teams this year, but they had fewer wins last year than Arizona, who only had 86 points. To go from that to Cup favorite is not easy. Dallas added a couple of Pacific division veterans to help a defensively sound team go over the top in the postseason after last year's Game 7 heartbreak, and they'll be good enough to certainly test the best.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The defending champs made their first big move by trading for Justin Faulk, giving up a solid defenseman in Joel Edmunson, and a prospect in Dominic Bokk. Faulk is not much better if at all than what they gave up. But they are still the same aggressive forechecking team they were a season ago, and if Jordan Binnington is still the same goaltender from his run last season, they will be more consistent. They're not quite as talented as their rivals, hence why they're a Wild Card team, though they're still a playoff lock. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Winnipeg's offseason from hell has taken a bite out of what was a team set up to be a juggernaut. If Dustin Byfuglien doesn't return, then their blueline is relying an awful lot on this year's first round pick, Ville Heinola. It looks to be a fatal flaw. While they have plenty of scoring punch, their depth is also incredibly sketchy. They will not make the playoffs without some substantial additions. Chicago scored a boatload of goals last year, and also gave up a boatload. Adding Robin Lehner, Calvin De Haan and Olli Maata might not do enough to counteract all those goals against, though. Minnesota did get rid of their problem GM, but this is still an old team with an old core that is only getting older, with a prospect pipeline that is far from encouraging.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Pacific Division:</b></div>
<div>
1. Vegas</div>
<div>
2. Calgary</div>
<div>
3. San Jose</div>
<div>
4. Arizona (WC)</div>
<div>
5. Vancouver</div>
<div>
6. Edmonton</div>
<div>
7. Anaheim</div>
<div>
8. Los Angeles</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Watching the Vegas Golden Knights has been an experience in the last two seasons, from their Cup run to how they went out last year. They are, in a weak division, the strongest team, even if their blueline is shallow and Marc-Andre Fleury is being asked to do too much. Calgary, though they traded for Milan Lucic, still have plenty of speed and skill up front with a very good blueline to boot. But can they keep the puck out of the net? It doesn't seem like there's optimism on that front. Speaking of bad goaltending, San Jose had the worst in the league last year and still made it to the Conference Final! They also played with a very broken Erik Karlsson too. But they don't have Joe Pavelski anymore, and their depth from years past is gone. They're still a playoff team, but do they have enough to challenge like they've been able to?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Perhaps this pick is aspirational, but I really want the Coyotes to make the playoffs. I like the moves that they have made, and Rick Tocchet got a broken, injured group to within earshot of the postseason. He is also a Phil Kessel whisperer, and getting him to score is what the Coyotes desperately need. If some of their young talent like Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton and others finally come good, they can get in. Vancouver will challenge them because of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes, but the veterans are what will let them down, because they just don't have enough good ones. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, but little else, and there's very little reason to believe that Ken Holland and Dave Tippett can make lemonade without any lemons to use. Anaheim is finally rebuilding, and some of their young forwards have promise. They also have John Gibson, who could win the Vezina on a better team. But their great defense pipeline is now barren. The Kings went sour gradually, and then suddenly, and now they're in a full rebuild mode again. Alexis Lafrieniere would look good in black and silver.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Playoffs:</b></div>
<div>
<b>Eastern Conference:</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Washington (M1) over Florida (WC1) in 7</div>
<div>
Carolina (M2) over Pittsburgh (M2) in 5</div>
<div>
Tampa (A1) over Montreal (WC2) in 6</div>
<div>
Toronto (A2) over Boston (A3) in 7</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Carolina (M2) over Washington (M1) in 7</div>
<div>
Tampa (A1) over Toronto (A2) in 7</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Tampa (A1) over Carolina (M2) in 5</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Western Conference:</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
St. Louis (WC1) over Nashville (C1) in 6</div>
<div>
Colorado (C2) over Dallas (C3) in 6</div>
<div>
Vegas (P1) over Arizona (WC2) in 5</div>
<div>
Calgary (P2) over San Jose (P3) in 6</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Colorado (C2) over St. Louis (WC1) in 6</div>
<div>
Vegas (P1) over Calgary (P2) in 6</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Vegas (P1) over Colorado (C2) in 6</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Stanley Cup Final:</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Tampa over Vegas in 6</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Awards:</b></div>
<div>
Hart: Nathan MacKinnon (COL)</div>
<div>
Art Ross: Connor McDavid (EDM)<br />Rocket Richard: Alex Ovechkin (WSH)</div>
<div>
Norris: Victor Hedman (TB)<br />Vezina: Frederik Andersen (TOR)</div>
<div>
Calder: Kaapo Kakko (NYR)</div>
<div>
Jack Adams: Rick Tocchet (ARZ)</div>
<div>
First Coach Fired: Paul Maurice (WPG)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Happy Hockey Season! I hope I didn't pick one of your favorite teams and favorite players to do well. </div>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-70842722705747906442019-09-30T15:44:00.000-04:002019-09-30T15:44:47.565-04:002019 MLB Season Predictions in Review + Playoff PredictionsMore cheap content for this old blog with the same design it has had for eight plus years, but is the perfect place for said content that doesn't fit anywhere else and is fun to write up. How badly did I do with my 2019 MLB Predictions? Badly, let's say.<br />
<br />
Actual standings in parenthesis.<br />
<br />
<b>NL East:</b><br />
1. Philadelphia (ATL)<br />
2. Washington (WSH)<br />
3. Atlanta (NYM)<br />
4. New York Mets (PHI)<br />
5. Miami (MIA)<br />
<br />
Atlanta is becoming a quiet juggernaut with a great young lineup and rotation. They've won the NL East for the second straight year and are second favorites to win the NL. Philly didn't have the rotation and bullpen to buoy all the money they spent this offseason, and Gabe Kapler's seat is getting toasty. Washington did end up making the playoffs after their awful start after all.<br />
<br />
<b>AL East:</b><br />
1. New York Yankees (NYY)<br />
2. Boston (TB)<br />
3. Tampa Bay (BOS)<br />
4. Toronto (TOR)<br />
5. Baltimore (BAL)<br />
<br />
In spite of the litany of injuries the Yankees endured, they still won 103 games. It truly is a remarkable achievement. Boston's World Series defense went poorly, like most of theirs have since 2004, and Tampa Bay continues to do the absolute most with the least to make the playoffs again. No wonder everyone in the league wants everyone in their front office. The back end of the division was as bad as predicted.<br />
<br />
<b>NL Central:</b><br />
1. St. Louis (STL)<br />
2. Chicago Cubs (MIL)<br />
3. Milwaukee (CHC)<br />
4. Cincinnati (CIN)<br />
5. Pittsburgh (PIT)<br />
<br />
Saying the Cubs were long in the tooth turned out to be prescient after their September collapse, which allowed the Redbirds to sneak up and win the NL Central while getting Milwaukee back into the postseason minus a potential league MVP in Christian Yelich. Joe Maddon is gone, so the Cubs in many ways are going back to the drawing board. The NL Central was the most equal division this year, and some big runs, positive or negative, drew the lines for the playoffs.<br />
<br />
<b>AL Central:</b><br />
1. Cleveland (MIN)<br />
2. Minnesota (CLE)<br />
3. Chicago White Sox (CHW)<br />
4. Kansas City (KC)<br />
5. Detroit (DET)<br />
<br />
Hitting the most home runs in a single season in MLB history helped propel the Twins back to the postseason for the second time in three years, but they have to play the Yankees again. They had a little more consistency everywhere than the Indians, who had the same 93 wins they did a year ago, but last year that was enough to win them the AL Central, and this year they just missed the playoffs with a historically high win total for a team to miss. They would have won the NL Central, for instance. A frugal offseason really did cost them. Everyone else ranged from scuffling to outright tanking and historically bad.<br />
<br />
<b>NL West:</b><br />
1. Los Angeles (LAD)<br />
2. Colorado (ARZ)<br />
3. San Diego (SF)<br />
4. Arizona (SD)<br />
5. San Francisco (COL)<br />
<br />
The Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and everyone else is playing catch up. Arizona's rebuild on the fly allowed them to have a positive season with a platform to build on for the future. San Diego and Colorado both underwhelmed in a major way after their preseason expectations, and that cost San Diego manager Andy Green his job. It doesn't look like anyone is challenging the Dodgers any time soon.<br />
<br />
<b>AL West:</b><br />
1. Houston (HOU)<br />
2. LA Angels (OAK)<br />
3. Oakland (TEX)<br />
4. Seattle (LAA)<br />
5. Texas (SEA)<br />
<br />
The Astros are still the Astros, and no one gave them much of a run in the AL West again. The A's continue to do quite a bit with not very much and make the playoffs again, but it's going to be tough to see them winning a series if they do make it to play their division rivals. Mike Trout is still being let down by everyone around him, and perhaps Joe Maddon is the solution to that problem. Everyone else is rebuilding to varying degrees, and the order is shuffling deck chairs.<br />
<br />
<b>Preseason Playoffs Predictions:</b><br />
NL: 1. LAD 2. PHI 3. STL 4. WSH 5. CHC<br />
AL: 1. NYY 2. HOU 3. CLE 4. BOS 5. LAA<br />
<br />
<b>Actual Playoff Order:</b><br />
NL: 1. LAD 2. ATL 3. STL 4. WSH 5. MIL<br />
AL: 1. HOU 2. NYY 3. MIN 4. OAK 5. TB<br />
<br />
5 out of 10 playoff teams predicted isn't great! When the league is so clearly sorted into teams that are trying and teams that aren't, those predictions feel even worse! But there are only a few teams who really failed to live up to the hype this year, which include Boston, Philly and Colorado.<br />
<br />
<b>Preseason Award Predictions (with comments):</b><br />
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt (Going to be Cody Bellinger, could have been Yelich if he didn't get hurt)<br />
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (Spent too much time injured. Going to be Mike Trout again because he's simply not human)<br />
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Jacob DeGrom outpitched him again, but he'll be in the conversation)<br />
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Like the rest of the Red Sox, he flopped. It'll be either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole who both had super seasons)<br />
NL Rookie: Fernando Tatis Jr. (Pete Alonso made history every time he took an at bat, and Tatis had too many injuries)<br />
AL Rookie: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (not quite there yet. Yordan Alvarez was insane for the Astros)<br />
NL Manager: Dave Martinez (he took his team back from the brink, but he got them there in the first place. Craig Counsell has does another good job with the Brewers, but Brian Snitker deserves love for the machine he's built in Atlanta)<br />
AL Manager: Aaron Boone (slam dunk considering the injuries his team has gone through)<br />
<br />
<b>New Playoff Predictions:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>NL: </b><br />
Wild Card Game: Nationals over Brewers<br />
<br />
NLDS: Braves over Cardinals in 4<br />
Dodgers over Nationals in 4<br />
<br />
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers in 7<br />
<br />
<b>AL:</b><br />
Wild Card Game: Rays over A's<br />
<br />
ALDS: Astros over Rays in 3<br />
Yankees over Twins in 4<br />
<br />
ALCS: Yankees over Astros in 7<br />
<br />
<b>World Series: </b>Yankees over Braves in 6<br />
<br />
These will end up going wrong too, I bet.Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-48310531247607579442019-09-03T15:40:00.001-04:002019-09-03T15:40:29.917-04:002019 NFL Season PredictionsThe National Football League, the world's greatest reality show, has returned for it's 100th season. Nothing in the NFL is ever short of storylines, intrigue and drama, and this season should be no different. Is this the year someone other than the Patriots dominates the AFC (don't bet on it)? Is this the year where the Cleveland Browns awake from their decades long slumber of irrelevance (more than possible)? Is this the year that I finally do somewhat decently in this predictions piece? Probably not, but that's not going to stop me from trying!<br />
<br />
<b>AFC East:</b><br />
1. New England: 12-4<br />
2. Buffalo: 8-8<br />
3. New York Jets: 7-9<br />
4. Miami: 3-13<br />
<br />
Since 2001, the Patriots have failed to win the AFC East only twice. In that time, they've won six Super Bowls. With a league that is more even than ever, that is truly an incredible accomplishment. The defending champs are a little weaker this year without Gronk and irreplaceable center David Andrews, but Bill Belichick and company always find players to plug in those gaps, and they do it better than anyone else. While it looks like the AFC East might be finally catching up, that Brady guy, if he's still healthy, is hard to beat.<br />
<br />
Buffalo has a solid roster behind Josh Allen, who I'm personally not a fan of, but his skillset works well with the up-and-coming squad they have. They aren't quite contenders yet though. The same can be same of the Jets and Adam Gase, even though the new coach pulled off an amazing coup to get front office control after previous management threw money at anyone who would listen this offseason. Gase has the chops though. And for his old team, they're tanking. Watch Alabama and Oregon games instead, Dolphins fans, your next QB is on one of those two teams.<br />
<br />
<b>NFC East:</b><br />
1. Philadelphia: 12-4<br />
2. Dallas: 9-7<br />
3. New York Giants: 5-11<br />
4. Washington: 5-11<br />
<br />
I'm not going out on a limb when I say the Eagles are one of the best run teams in the league. They always find a way to acquire, develop and manage not just talent, but assets. Even when their franchise QB gets hurt, and the Super Bowl MVP backup leaves, they still can feel decently confident in the roster they've built. There are few spots where they are thin on their roster, and that depth is enough to pull away from the pack.<br />
<br />
Dallas' drama is going to hurt them at some point, and they took advantage of an incredibly mediocre division last year to win it. With the Eagles reloading, that's not happening this year. They are solid, especially in the trenches, but do they have the gamebreaker needed to take them over the top? That's a question yet to be answered. Both the Giants and Washington are in similar spots with talent deficient rosters and rookie QB's waiting in the wings. It's a matter of when not if both of them start. Both have also been chronically mismanaged to boot. There is very little separating them, including how sports talk radio phone lines will explode with "when should Haskins and Jones start" takes.<br />
<br />
<b>AFC North:</b><br />
1. Pittsburgh: 10-6<br />
2. Cleveland: 9-7<br />
3. Baltimore: 8-8<br />
4. Cincinnati: 4-12<br />
<br />
It's been 30 years since the Cleveland Browns won their division, and it feels like now more than ever is their best chance to. They had a spectacular offseason in bringing in loads of talent, and with a QB primed for a major jump in Baker Mayfield, it seems like this could be the year football in Cleveland is finally back. But not so fast my friends... the Steelers are still here. With everyone discounting them after the drama from last season, could it be that Pittsburgh is in a promising position now, one where they are the underdogs? Possibly. Replacing Brown and Bell is hard to do, but they basically had to do that last season and still nearly made the playoffs, and their defense is better now too. At some point, the pressure and expectations may weigh heavy on the young Browns shoulders.<br />
<br />
Lamar Jackson took over towards the end of last season and lit up the league with inspired play running, but not so much throwing. The struggles in the Wild Card game against the Chargers might be an omen for 2019, especially because they've suffered through a major talent drain. Suggs, Mosley among others are not there, and that is going to catch up with them at some point. Jackson must show improvement as a passer, especially so the Ravens can win critical division toss-up games. And as for the Bengals, the Sean McVay coaching tree didn't drop a great apple here, with Zac Taylor struggling to build a staff and a healthy roster, especially with another awful AJ Green injury. Don't look now, but the Bengals are also very much in the Tua/Justin sweepstakes.<br />
<br />
<b>NFC North:</b><br />
1. Green Bay: 11-5<br />
2. Minnesota: 10-6<br />
3. Chicago: 8-8<br />
4. Detroit: 6-10<br />
<br />
Matt LaFleur, another Sean McVay coaching tree apple, tries to ripen a bunch of stale Packers in cheese country. Aaron Rodgers seems on board, for now, and with that, plus a heavily revamped and revitalized defense, are the Packers back to being favorites again in this division? Seems so. Minnesota thought they were one great QB away last season, and they were right, because Kirk Cousins is not a great QB. But the offensive line did fail him, and they couldn't really run the ball nearly as well as they should have considering their talent. Some of that will regress back to "normal", which should make Vikings a playoff team.<br />
<br />
There's something incredibly eerie about these Bears, namely that they remind me of last year's Jaguars. A team with a dominant defense that did things that are probably not replicable, and a QB that did barely enough to let the defense do what it needed to do. Mitch Trubisky should shudder at hearing Blake Bortles comparisons. Jacksonville finished 5-11 last season, and that was because the offense totally fell apart. That's not likely in Chicago, but some of those games that defense won in Chicago last year won't happen again this year. As for the Lions, Matt Patricia finds his team in limbo again. Not truly bad enough to tank, but not good enough to fully compete in the NFC for the playoffs. How much longer can that last?<br />
<br />
<b>AFC South:</b><br />
1. Houston: 9-7<br />
2. Tennessee: 8-8<br />
3. Jacksonville: 7-9<br />
4. Indianapolis: 5-11<br />
<br />
Jeff Fisher, he very much the most AFC South coach of all time, said he wouldn't settle for 7-9 BS as coach of the Rams. His old division is very much the embodiment of 7-9 BS, with every team having a fatal flaw, but not so fatal that it could cost them the division. Houston (Bill O'Brien) traded away their entire future for an offensive lineman that they desperately needed in Laremy Tunsil, but they massively overpaid for, right after trading away former first overall pick Jadaveon Clowney for peanuts. But because Houston has DeShaun Watson, De'Andre Hopkins and JJ Watt, they may have enough to squeak the division out, even though they've mortgaged their future and could easily fall off again.<br />
<br />
Tennessee is stuck with a QB in Marcus Mariota that is mediocre and unimpressive, which is also true of his skill position players, but buoyed by a solid defense, they should still be in contention, but just. The Jaguars realized their Blake Bortles mistake and overpaid Nick Foles to be their savior, and since he's a better QB than Bortles, and their defense is still one of the best in football, that should mean the Jaguars take advantage in this division, right? Speaking from experience, trusting them is incredibly difficult and finding consistency is even harder. They'll be better, but not playoffs better. And no matter what people say about Jacoby Brissett, he cannot lift the Colts to the playoffs, even though the roster around him is solid. An off year to draft/luck into a good QB might just be what's needed in Indy.<br />
<br />
<b>NFC South:</b><br />
1. New Orleans: 12-4<br />
2. Atlanta: 10-6<br />
3. Carolina: 8-8<br />
4. Tampa Bay: 6-10<br />
<br />
After two of the most heartbreaking playoff exits in NFL history, the Saints try to regroup for one last ride with Drew Brees, who even through his Bayou superpowers might be starting to fade just a little. But with the talent around him, that won't hurt the Saints just yet. The postseason will once again define them. Atlanta lost practically their entire defense to injury last year, a defense that was extremely solid when put together. Matt Ryan also had a historically good season and is never really given his due. The Falcons will be back in the postseason this year.<br />
<br />
Cam Newton is a beat up man, and while when healthy he is fantastic, he's just not healthy all that much anymore. They're still light in depth on offense, and that defense just isn't what it once was. They're not bad, but the NFC is too crowded for a team like them to make the postseason. Bruce Arians will try to revive Jameis Winston's career, and he's got a good chance of doing that with his offensive know-how. But their defense is awful, and no offense can outpace that bad a defense for long.<br />
<br />
<b>AFC West:</b><br />
1. Kansas City: 13-3<br />
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5<br />
3. Oakland: 5-11<br />
4. Denver: 4-12<br />
<br />
Kansas City has the league's MVP, some of its most explosive offensive weapons, and a thoroughly revitalized and improved defense. What's not to like? They're going to be one of the fastest teams in the league, and speed kills, especially with Pat Mahomes in control. There are some concerns at running back, but adding LeSean McCoy might just address those issues. How defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo holds up might be the difference between winning the Super Bowl and coming up short again.<br />
<br />
Once again, the Chargers are solid all around, even without Melvin Gordon, Derwin James and Russell Okung. It's a testament to how well built that roster is. However, that game against the Patriots in the playoffs showed last year that they may have bumped up against the glass ceiling and have no further up to go. They're a no doubt playoff team, but they're not quite championship material. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have tried to drastically revamp the Raiders, and it feels like this is a pause year before moving into taxpayer paradise near Paradise, Nevada next year. They added big names, but the roster, particularly on defense, is shallow. The Broncos still think Joe Flacco is the same QB that beat them in the playoffs seven years ago, which isn't true. They have an OK defense, but this is a team primed for the bottom to really fault out. If not for some upper management issues, would John Elway still be running football ops?<br />
<br />
<b>NFC West:</b><br />
1. Los Angeles Rams: 11-5<br />
2. Seattle: 9-7<br />
3. San Francisco: 7-9<br />
4. Arizona: 5-11<br />
<br />
Sean McVay himself still knows what he's doing, and even with a banged up Todd Gurley, they're still the team to beat in the NFC West. The Rams are not quite as deep as they once were, particularly on defense, but they have more than enough to win the division for a third straight year. Seattle has Russell Wilson, which makes them more than good enough to compete so long as he stays upright, and now they have a fearsome pass rusher in Jadaveon Clowney, but they may not have enough wholesale like some of their NFC playoff competitors now.<br />
<br />
If Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy, the 49ers have a chance to make the playoffs, especially considering how decent some of the backups looked last year. But they have too many other teams to pass to get there. Kyler Murray will be fun to watch this season when he has his moments of magic, but there are too many concerns about the rest of that roster, and the coaching staff, to get them beyond the basement.<br />
<br />
<b>AFC Playoff Order:</b><br />
1. Kansas City<br />
2. New England<br />
3. Pittsburgh<br />
4. Houston<br />
5. LA Chargers<br />
6. Cleveland<br />
<br />
<b>NFC Playoff Order:</b><br />
1. New Orleans<br />
2. Philadelphia<br />
3. LA Rams<br />
4. Green Bay<br />
5. Atlanta<br />
6. Minnesota<br />
<br />
<b>AFC Playoff Predictions:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
3. Pittsburgh over 6. Cleveland<br />
5. LA Chargers over 4. Houston<br />
<br />
1. Kansas City over 5. LA Chargers<br />
2. New England over 3. Pittsburgh<br />
<br />
1. Kansas City over 2. New England<br />
<br />
<b>NFC Playoff Predictions:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
3. LA Rams over 6. Minnesota<br />
5. Atlanta over 4. Green Bay<br />
<br />
1. New Orleans over 5. Atlanta<br />
2. Philadelphia over 3. LA Rams<br />
<br />
2. Philadelphia over 1. New Orleans<br />
<br />
<b>Super Bowl LIV: </b>Kansas City over Philadelphia 34-27<br />
<br />
The Andy Reid Bowl would pit two well constructed teams against one another, and two teams with so many connections from the front office down to the field. It would be a triumph of roster building, planning and coaching. Kansas City has just enough to squeak by and end their 50 year championship drought.<br />
<br />
<b>Award Predictions:</b><br />
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (KC)<br />
OPOY: Julio Jones (ATL)<br />
DPOY: Aaron Donald (LAR)<br />
OROY: Miles Sanders (PHI)<br />
DROY: Josh Allen (JAX)<br />
Comeback: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)<br />
Coach: Freddie Kitchens (CLE)<br />
<br />
Sorry to everyone in Philadelphia and Kansas City in advance for these predictions, since it will inevitably jinx them. Enjoy the new season!Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-72599011253540219172019-08-25T14:19:00.002-04:002019-08-25T14:19:39.996-04:00Andrew Luck and Moral Courage In professional sports, almost no one gets to retire on their own terms. Even for these exceptional athletes, the harsh realities of professional sports forces players to leave their games far earlier than anyone would want to. To be good enough to retire on your own accord is a great luxury afforded to very few.<br />
<br />
Andrew Luck is one of those few lucky athletes. His powers and potential seemed limitless from the moment he stepped foot on a college football field, let alone in Indianapolis. Because of that, it seemed like his decision to retire would come long in the future, with rings on his fingers and with a gold jacket waiting for him one state over. But it came, shockingly, when he was still at the height of his powers, as a Super Bowl contender and one of the best quarterbacks in football.<br />
<br />
Football is a grueling game. Getting physically ready to play becomes a task in of itself, and Andrew Luck's injury history is proof positive of that.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Physical toll on Andrew Luck through 6 NFL seasons:<br />» Torn cartilage in 2 ribs<br />» partially torn abdomen<br />» a lacerated kidney that left him peeing blood<br />» at least 1 concussion<br />» a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder<br />» and this mysterious calf/ankle issue that led to this</div>
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) <a href="https://twitter.com/zkeefer/status/1165440454927814656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
<br />
It's this cycle of pain and rehab, pain and rehab that never ceased which broke Andrew Luck's infectious love for football. He is a player who congratulated opposing defensive linemen who sacked with a big smile on his face, and almost never showed frustration. His happy go-lucky nature almost seemed misplaced in the cold, sometimes heartless NFL of today. But that happiness and childlike joy hid the real pain he went through; the pain of having to do the same thing over and over, while never getting a different result.<br />
<br />
He was also, in another word, wordly. Football was his anything, but not his everything. He told Zak Keefer of the Athletic <a href="https://theathletic.com/1160250/2019/08/25/part-of-our-heart-is-broken-tonight-andrew-lucks-unfathomable-retirement-leaves-so-many-what-ifs/" target="_blank">last year after the blowout loss to Kansas City</a> in the playoffs that "if my worth as a human was going to be tied into how I did- the result of a performance in a football game- then I was going to have, pardon my French, a really s***ty life."<br />
<br />
Luck might be one of the few football players who has ever earned the right to say that. Too often we see athletes as machines, robots, assets, pieces on a chess board in the game that has become so much a part of our collective self-worth, our identity and our sense of belonging. But human beings, with feelings, ambitions and complex emotions, are far more than that. Luck seemed keenly aware of it, even though he would never show it. He could proudly exclaim to the world he still owned a flip phone and people would not knock him for it because he's Andrew Luck.<br />
<br />
So many people in life work their rear ends off to do what they love for a living, and so few get to do it. That love makes it easy to go through the ups and downs of the work of the job itself. Luck started to feel that football, specifically the grueling grind it takes physically and mentally just to play, was becoming work, which obfuscated the love of the game. He is certainly not the only one who feels this way in professional sports right now, but so many of them do not have the luxury of being a player who can dictate their own terms and say confidently, though still somewhat shaken, that this life isn't everything.<br />
<br />
Very few professional athletes are wired like Andrew Luck, but so many go through those same experiences as he did. Too many never get the chance to say what he said, not just because of the money involved, but because these games were their entire life from practically birth until now. Giving it up means shifting to a world without control, which these players have given everything to acquire. As physically draining as these sports can be, the mental grind of just getting to the games can be even more grueling. And it is this affect that causes players to go through not just the physical labor of professional sports, but the emotional labor too.<br />
<br />
For Andrew Luck to retire now with seemingly so much more to give is shocking, but also comforting. He recognized something that so many of his peers may never will, and so many wish they could. While the life of a professional athlete is one so many of us lay people would give everything for, there is something so wonderful about living life on your own terms. By the time a professional athlete reaches the pinnacle, they are often not in control anymore, becoming slaves to the game they love because they have nothing else to fall back on. Andrew Luck proved to the world that even at the very top of the top of the pyramid of professional sports, there is another way forward.<br />
<br />
Perhaps Luck's decision offers a path forward for other athletes in a similar position, even though they are far less wealthy. Professional sports are not the be all and end all of life, even though for so many it feels like it. Short term pain for long term gain for many means playing through injuries and giving everything just to get another game check, but thanks to Andrew Luck, it may now mean that while giving up the game you love can be gut-wrenching, the other side of the mountain that is life can be more fulfilling even while doing so.<br />
<br />
Mark Twain said that "it is curious that physical courage should be so common in the world and yet moral courage so rare." Physical courage is a professional sports hallmark, yet moral courage, the courage of one's convictions, isn't. Andrew Luck showed moral courage to stand up for himself, against the whims of the professional sports machine and all that goaded him back into it, to live life on his terms, not someone else's.<br />
<br />
His fellow professionals see that intrinsically, applauding publicly while silently nodding, many wishing they could do the same thing.<br />
<br />
And on't we all wish we can do what he did, go out on our own terms to live life as we wish we could, confident in our own sense of self to do so?<br />
<br />
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-46160876850986971312019-08-08T16:13:00.001-04:002019-08-08T16:13:09.889-04:002019-20 Premier League PredictionsThe transfer window has shut in England, Jim White has been put back in his cryogenic storage chamber until January 31 thanks to the new money from Comcast, and the Premier League's new season is just around the corner. More than ever, the league feels like an hourglass: very little in the middle, but quite a bit at the top and the bottom. Liverpool vs. Manchester City part two will be a spectacular show, the race for the top four will be entertaining as always, and a whole host of teams will try to stay in the big time. There's nothing quite like the Premier League on the planet, and this season should be no different.<br />
<br />
Here are predictions you will probably discount and that will probably look dumb by November, in inverse order of predicted finish:<br />
<br />
<b>20. Norwich City</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Copycats about in English soccer. When Jurgen Klopp proved that a German manager with a German style could bring reward, soon came the imitators on a lesser scale. Huddersfield pulled off multiple minor miracles with David Wagner which earned them two top flight seasons. Daniel Farke at Norwich has practically done the same. With a good dash of German nous, plus some promising young players, he transformed Norwich into a great attacking side. He will be relying plenty on players like Teemu Pukki, Max Aarons along with a couple of new loanees to keep the Canaries up. Farke hasn't exactly been backed with cash though. Their outgoing spend according to Transfermarkt was 3.75 million pounds. Can Norwich do what Huddersfield did a few seasons ago? They have more goals in them than the Terriers did, but they're not quite as solid defensively. Huddersfield staying up was a miracle, and Norwich staying up also will be a miracle.<br />
<br />
<b>19. Sheffield United:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Chris Wilder could be the next Eddie Howe, i.e. the next next big thing. Not too long ago, the Blades were in the third tier. They're in the Premier League now, well ahead of schedule. They haven't spent ridiculously, and have picked up quality in players like Oli McBurnie, Mo Besic and they even took a flyer on Ravel Morrison. Continuity will help in a major way, and their manager has proven he can do more with less, but does this group have the same potential as Bournemouth did? Probably not. Like with all teams at the bottom though, they have a punchers chance.<br />
<br />
<b>18. Brighton</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Any Brighton fan would have taken two seasons in the top flight when they were promoted a couple of seasons ago, but it feels like they aspire to be more than a team that scrapes by to stay up, which is what Chris Hughton brought. Hiring Graham Potter, a manager who cut his teeth in Sweden with Ostersunds and took them from the fourth tier to the Europa League Round of 32 playing Arsenal in eight seasons, is certainly going in a different direction. He wants to play beautiful soccer, which is not exactly what they've been playing in the Premier League. They've made a couple of signings from the Championship, including big scorer Neal Maupay from Brentford because their big signings haven't exactly worked out. When Glenn Murray is still the club's leading marksman, that shows there have been problems in recruitment.<br />
<br />
Potter took Swansea to 10th place last year, which isn't exactly amazing. But he could stay with the club for the long haul even if they're relegated. That, sadly, looks like it's in the Seagulls future.<br />
<br />
<b>17. Crystal Palace</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
When the calendar turns to December, that's when Palace wakes up and finally starts winning, no matter the manager. Roy Hodgson has done an incredible amount with what little he has, and what he nearly could have lost if Wilfried Zaha left this window. Thankfully for Palace, he didn't, but that situation is unsettled still. The big additions are James McCarthy from Everton who was lost in the shuffle and Victor Camarasa who was a very good player for a quite bad Cardiff team last term. They still don't have enough goals in their team, but with Roy's "magic" and some veteran experience, they'll have enough to scrape by, but it'll be a close shave.<br />
<br />
<b>16. Newcastle</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Rafa Benitez finally had enough with the boardroom politics at St. James Park and departed for China, taking a huge amount of success with him. Not only did Newcastle finally feel safe from relegation for the first time in forever, Rafa felt like the glue holding the club together. But now that he's gone, the risk is back. Everyone sided with the Spanish manager and not ownership, which was the correct decision. Steve Bruce doesn't feel like an inspiring choice to replace him, but he has been backed with big signings Joelinton from Hoffenheim and Allan Saint-Maximin from Nice, who both have big potential. But do the players believe in the same way in Bruce as they did in Benitez? Whatever the case may be, the boardroom politics always translate to the pitch in the Northeast, and that means Newcastle are going to have to work hard to stay up, again, which they never should.<br />
<br />
<b>15. Aston Villa</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Last year when Fulham was promoted, they spent the big bucks on trying to stay up and it flopped spectacularly. Aston Villa, back in the big leagues for the first time since 2016, are trying to do the same. They've spent a lot on players like Tyrone Mings, Matt Targett who have experience in England's top two flights, as well on other like Wesley, the Brazilian striker who came over from Belgium and Marvelous Nkamba, a midfielder who also came over from Club Brugge. The spending is always a risk, especially when it comes to building an entirely new squad. Dean Smith seems like a manager who is able to put it all together, however, and with far more stable ownership than when they went down, Villa looks to be on the right path to sustained success again. But the first year is always one of the toughest, and their saving grace might be just how many other teams are in their position.<br />
<br />
<b>14. Southampton</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
For the last few seasons, the Saints spent a lot of time dancing around possible, if not sometimes probable relegation. Ralph Hassenhuttl, the man who brought RB Leipzig into our lives, did a ton of work to keep Southampton up last season with not all that much. The signings haven't been there either, though there is potential with Che Adams from Birmingham City and Moussa Djenepo from Standard Liege. The squad is still a little bloated, but at times last year, Saints did look truly impressive. They're not what they were when they were a team challenging to break the Sky Six, but they may have enough this year to not dance around relegation for the first time in a while. However, teams like them, including Villa, Swansea and Sunderland, eventually did go down dancing around that fire for too long. There is major risk for Southampton now, but they seem to know just what to do to get out from under the trap door.<br />
<br />
<b>13. Burnley</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Burnley are the new Stoke. They don't play beautiful soccer, they don't have the most talent around, but they always do enough not just to annoy you, but beat you by being their annoying selves, and they always stay up. In the new fast and fluid Premier League, a club like Burnley should have been relegated ages ago. But they're not going to be, not so long as Sean Dyche is at the club. They're managed well and run well, even though they don't spend a ton of money. Their biggest impact player could be Dwight McNeil, the young attacking midfielder from their academy who really picked up his form at the end of last season. They may never do what they did in finishing seventh a few seasons ago ever again, but until something major changes, rightly or wrongly, they're a Premier League club.<br />
<br />
<b>12. Bournemouth</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
What is more surprising: Bournemouth being in the top flight for their fifth straight season, or that Eddie Howe is still their manager? Both are pretty surprising, but since the latter directly influences the former, it's not as big of a surprise as it once would have been. They will never been in a direct relegation scrap, and they'll probably never push much higher than where they are right now, but so long as Eddie Howe is there and not at a big club, they'll be a consistent Premier League club. Their signings confirm that this summer. David Brooks had a really good season, and he alongside Leicester's James Maddison feel like the next big movers to big clubs in short order.<br />
<br />
<b>11. Watford</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
By Watford's standards, this summer was fairly quiet. The major outgoings were players who were either on loan or on the fringes, and they brought in fliers like Danny Welbeck in addition to their big signing of Ismaila Sarr to augment a squad that was already solid. Keeping Abdoulaye Doucoure, who is one of the most underrated midfielders in England, was a good piece of business. Nothing about Watford is spectacular, but they've become a pretty solid Premier League club that can always pull a shock against one of the league's big boys, as evidenced by their FA Cup Final run last year. It also feels like Javi Gracia is a manager that one day will be destined for a bigger club, too.<br />
<br />
<b>10. West Ham</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
It feels like West Ham are suffering from an old creed from "Bill Nye": inertia is a property of matter. They're never going to be in a relegation scrap ever again, but they never feel like they'll ever seriously challenge for Europe. Sebastian Haller and Pablo Fornals are ambitious signings, but ones that carry enough risk that the big boys stayed away. They have potential as ever. Felipe Anderson, Andriy Yarmolenko are players who have bigger clubs in their future, but something always holds them back, something that the three clubs above them always seem to possess.<br />
<br />
<b>9. Wolves</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
They had a spectacular season last term playing exactly the way Nuno wanted them do, and they did it to the effect of being the most successful newly promoted team ever. There's no reason to think that they can't do that again with the entirety of their squad back plus smart additions like Patrick Cutrone and Jesus Vallejo, but there is an elephant in the room: Europa League. It's called a poisoned chalice for a reason. Bigger and better clubs have been tripped up by Thursdays in random parts of the Schengen area and beyond, and Wolves have to contend with that and with the grind of another Premier League season with clubs knowing what to do against them now. That's a tough needle to thread. Expect a little regression this year, but they'll still be a top half side.<br />
<br />
<b>8. Everton</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Remember when the thing holding Everton back was ambitious ownership that would spend big? Well that's not a problem anymore, and they still always hit the glass ceiling no matter the manager. Marco Silva hit it last year, in spite of Everton spending gobs of cash and not doing it so well. They've done it again, but this time losing quite a bit more from their squad, including Idrissa Gana and Ademola Lookman. They've reinvested well in Moise Kean, Fabian Delph and perhaps Alex Iwobi, but it still feels like something is missing. They're deeper than Wolves and West Ham, but they're not seemingly what they want to be, strive to be; mostly because they are what they can be and no more. They could make a European appearance this year, but finishing a relatively mediocre but safe eighth seems like it's Everton's destiny.<br />
<br />
<b>7. Leicester</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
They are not the team that won the Premier League in 2016, far from it. That's not something that will ever happen again. But every summer, they lose a critical piece (last year Riyad Mahrez, this year Harry Maguire) and they don't lose a step. Brendan Rogers has a very good squad to work with this year including two great young Belgian midfielders in Youri Tielemans and Dennis Praet, a budding superstar in James Maddison and that Vardy guy. Bu they're not as strong in central defense as they once were, and if Vardy's not scoring goals, who is? They are the best of the rest in England, especially with their manager (I know we all laugh at Deluded Brendan but he's not really that anymore). It's hard not to be impressed with what they've done.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Manchester United</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Into the Sky Six we go, and we find Manchester United in a very weird spot. They've spent big on three British players that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wanted, but yet something is missing. Romelu Lukaku is gone with his replacement possibly being a revitalized Alexis Sanchez or maybe a 17 year old. Paul Pogba is still evidently not happy, and after that initial burst when Solskjaer arrived, Manchester United scuppered to the finish. Would anyone be shocked to see United sack him if they're hovering around 10th in November? Probably not, but the club's problems go deeper than him. Recruitment, structure, vision are all missing. The other five above them seem to have more of that in spite of their issues. United seem not just stuck, but listless.<br />
<br />
<b>5. Chelsea</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Frank Lampard, after one season of nearly taking Derby County to the Premier League, is now Chelsea's manager. He comes in after Maurizio Sarri won the Europa League and finished third, but left a sour taste in Chelsea's mouth on the way out. Chelsea were also on a transfer ban, so their winter signing of Christian Pulisic is their only true new incoming, if you don't account for young players like Mason Mount. Losing Eden Hazard, the one true transcendent player they had through all the ups and downs, means this club is going to look quite strange. No Ruben Loftus-Cheek for a while will also hurt. Will some of the loan army that is returning give Chelsea a chance at the top four? Yes. Will Christian Pulisic be good, but probably not live up to his transfer fee? Probably. Were they handcuffed this window to do anything notable? Yes. All of this means that while they made the Champions League a season ago, they may not make it again.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Arsenal</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm an unabashed Spurs supporter, and still laugh at pretty much everything Arsenal has done in the last four or five years as their North London neighbors basically lapped them. But this summer, they did put their money where their mouth is and made some good additions. Nicolas Pepe has a chance to be a star forward and combine well with Aubamayeng, Lacazette and perhaps even Mesut Ozil. Dani Ceballos isn't an Aaron Ramsey replacement, but he's going to help fill the void. Torreira and Guendouzi is a wonderful midfield duo for Unai Emery to build around. But that defense is still an absolute mess, particularly at centerback. David Luiz still looks and defends like Sideshow Bob, and who else is going to help him out? At least with Bellerin and Kieran Tierney, they have the fullbacks to cover up some of those ills.<br />
<br />
But after what happened at the end of last year with the collapse in league form and the second half in Baku, questions still must be asked. But with United and Chelsea in various states of transition and disarray, the Champions League beckons because at least Stan Kroenke put his money where his mouth is... that is if he ever talked publicly.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Spurs</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Last year for Spurs was a season of miracles coming together to create magic when it looked like inertia was going to hit the blue half of North London. The stadium didn't open until April, they made no new signings and injuries ravaged just about everyone. Mauricio Pochettino took a team put together with spit and duck tape, got them safely in the top four and they made the Champions League Final. It was an insane ride.<br />
<br />
And after an 18 month wait for new signings, the incoming names were major. Tanguy Ndombele is a midfield star in the making, and he already performed on the big stage with Lyon, so slotting in next to Moussa Sissoko or Harry Winks could create a dominant central midfield which Spurs have used so spectacularly in the past. Giovani Lo Celso could be a Christian Eriksen running mate or replacement, and he has all the tools to be one of the best young attacking midfielders in Europe. Ryan Sessesgnon is a young player with promise that Spurs under Pochettino have turned into gold.<br />
<br />
So why can't they challenge for a Premier League title? They still lack depth behind Harry Kane, their defense is not spectacular, especially at right back, and that run last year took a lot out of them. While they don't have to worry about the concerns of an entire squad coming in late for the season because of World Cup excursions, it still feels like they're not totally right until the frontrunners are well out of the blocks already. But with the new signings, and the new stadium, it feels like Spurs are finally on solid footing. Maybe this year, it finally leads to a trophy.<br />
<br />
<b>2. Manchester City</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
What City did last year domestically was absolutely insane. They almost never put a foot wrong, and as Pep often does, he recreates his tactics and takes everyone by surprise every time he does. They had a real sparring partner last year in Liverpool and still outlasted them. Getting good work out of Oleksandr Zinchenko and Phil Foden certainly helps, and if they take another step, then that could be it for everyone else. Rodri is also going to be a star. But there are worries. David Silva and Sergio Aguero can't keep this up forever, can they? Leroy Sane's ACL injury is a major concern too. And will they put more resources in the Champions League to finally win it after so many close calls? A triple Premier League winner would be fitting for Pep, but considering their big rival from last year has everything but a domestic crown now, and considering that the allure of Europe is still super strong, perhaps it means there's a swap at the top coming.<br />
<br />
<b>1. Liverpool</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Liverpool did everything right last year, and still didn't win the Premier League. But once they got a little fortune in Europe, they hoisted another European crown. For this new campaign, they bring back basically everyone, but very little has changed. That's not a bad thing for a team that last year was better than everyone except City, but a little freshening up in some key areas, like up front, may have helped add a new dimension to a team that was already frightening. Perhaps a step up for Naby Keita could be just that.<br />
<br />
Having won in Europe, but being denied in England could be an interesting motivator this campaign. Do Liverpool go all out in the league, leaving a little in Europe, to win the one trophy they haven't won? It seems like it's destiny for them to complete that mission, and even after a rough preseason, it seems like that may be the aim. If Liverpool win the league, and City win the Champions League, it would feel fitting. Maybe most fitting would be if those two played in the Champions League final too.<br />
<br />
So these are my Premier League predictions, sure to fail as they always tend to. But it's good to have the world's biggest sporting circus back, we all kinda missed it.Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-62444988206919017582019-07-23T18:37:00.002-04:002019-07-23T18:37:36.119-04:00The @footballergay hoax, and what's next in helping athletes come out On July 5, a Twitter account came into life. It was called "the Gay Footballer". On that day, its first tweet said that the owner of the account was a player in the EFL Championship, England's second tier soccer league who had come out to his family, was under 23 and was getting ready to tell the world his story. For 19 days, the account picked up nearly 50,000 followers while tweeting play-by-play of the process of meeting high ranking club officials to carefully plan the next steps. All seemed positive. On July 21, the account tweeted the date July 24, 2019 with a rainbow flag emoji, signifying that would be the day when the player would reveal who he was. But on July 23, after cryptically deleting more than 60 tweets and unfollowing the nearly 1,500 accounts it had followed, the account was deleted after sending tweets saying the player "wasn't strong enough" and couldn't come out while furiously denying that this whole episode was a hoax.<br />
<br />
It's clear that this account was a well constructed, incredibly insidious and evil hoax. I wanted to believe it was real even though my first thoughts when seeing the account pop up were, "that's odd." Most high level celebrities and athletes when they come out have not narrated their climbing of that mountain through anonymous social media accounts. All of the hard work happens behind the scenes, with little indication that an announcement is coming publicly until it happens. When Collin Martin, Robbie Rogers and Jason Collins came out publicly, the announcements in many ways came out of nowhere. Knowing that made the circumstances regarding this account questionable, but as time passed, I began to believe that it was real, not because of anything it was saying, but because creating a hoax like this would be a gigantic risk to whoever constructed it. The English tabloids, though they didn't cover this story as intensely as you think they would when it first emerged, would be all over trying to figure out who was behind the account and exposing them if it wasn't real. For the person who constructed the lie, they'd be putting themselves in hot water knowing they'd have to put even more work into the cover up than the account itself.<br />
<br />
Since the account is now gone and no one publicly came out, the skepticism turned out to be correct. Instead of focusing on who concocted the lies and why they did it, it's time to focus on why in 2019, there are so few high level male athletes that are out worldwide and how we can help change that.<br />
<br />
Part of the amazing story of the US Women's National Team winning the World Cup the way they did was how openly queer they were. Megan Rapinoe especially made no bones about her sexuality and embracing it, which along with the five other out players on that team, <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2019/7/7/20685477/why-the-uswnts-open-queerness-matters" target="_blank">made a statement that has not been made in sports like that before</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
GAYS rule. It’s science. And you are welcome. <a href="https://t.co/Cc2qC1NfIE">https://t.co/Cc2qC1NfIE</a></div>
— Ashlyn Harris (@Ashlyn_Harris) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ashlyn_Harris/status/1147971353372442624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 7, 2019</a></blockquote>
<br />
But while their unabashed queerness is trendsetting and groundbreaking, it's not entirely analogous to the situation with the now deleted twitter account. There's an insidious expectation that high level female athletes are automatically gay because high level athletics is "manly", and queer women are expected to try to act like men. That isn't why there are scores more openly queer female athletes than male, far from it. But watching Kelly O'Hara, who wasn't previously out publicly, walk up to her girlfriend in the stands in Lyon after winning the World Cup and kiss her, you understand just how different the playing field is for out female athletes and out male athletes, and just how different the expectations and stereotypes are.<br />
<br />
Sports are supposed to be "manly", "tough", and a host of other synonyms for those two words, and gay men are decidedly not that, according to popular, deep-rooted and factually incorrect stereotypes. Being "feminine", as gay man are assumed to be is not possible in sports because you need to be a "man" to deal with the raw physicality, toughness and other stereotypes that dominate the perception of sports to this day. None of that is anywhere near close to true obviously, but those regressive ideas are still stuck in too many corners of the male sports world, which is why you get stories about how overwhelming majorities <a href="https://www.advocate.com/sports/2018/7/03/study-lgbt-teen-athletes-overwhelmingly-closeted" target="_blank">of teenage queer athletes are not out and feel afraid to be</a>, and a not insignificant number feel unsafe in locker rooms. That culture translates to the language used, which includes a number of demeaning slurs including calling people girls for not being "tough" and of course, the British slang term for a cigarette I won't use here.<br />
<br />
The irony is that most athletes <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2019/6/20/18692467/gay-hockey-slurs-study-australia-monash-university" target="_blank">who use this language aren't homophobic, far from it</a>. Mostly, they're saying it because they think it's either funny, or that it's "normal", because no one has ever told them said language is neither of those things. Most would be perfectly fine with a gay teammate, but don't realize the impact their language has on closeted individuals.<br />
<br />
"The use of this language also appears to be motivated by a desire for social acceptance", <a href="https://lens.monash.edu/2018/08/31/1358870/homophobic-language-in-sport" target="_blank">researchers at Monsah University in Australia</a> said in their study on the issue, "rather than overt homophobia or sexism and players had misconceptions around how others on their team view this language, and also around how this language use would create an unwelcoming environment for LGB people and women."<br />
<br />
Those words make people not only feel like they don't belong, but they are lesser than, and that is not an environment conducive for success. These closeted athletes then more than likely leave before ever reaching a high level, and those that end up breaking through are still deeply closeted when they do succeed. And once those kids, who have been raised in a conforming, non-questioning culture end up staying in it as coaches to teach a new generation, the cycle repeats itself. Only now has the cycle started to break with a higher interest in addressing this problem, but this is still a major problem all across male sports, particularly male team sports.<br />
<br />
That culture still exists in many ways even at the highest levels of all sports, certainly still in English soccer. And while the leagues are starting to realize what they have to do in order to foster culture that allows queer athletes to feel open to be themeselves, let alone feel safe in these spaces, there is a long way to go. When Collin Martin, Robbie Rogers, Jason Collins among others came out, they rose above the fray because they were uniquely situation to overcome the challenges that an openly gay male athlete still faces, but they still vividly documented the difficulties they had in accepting themselves in that space to get to that point. They are certainly not alone.<br />
<br />
It's extremely unlikely that there are zero other high level gay professional soccer players playing right now across the globe; it is statistically impossible. It's also highly unlikely that in the four major leagues in this country, there are zero gay athletes in those locker rooms too. There are perhaps hundreds of untold stories past and present waiting to be told, but these people never received the direct or indirect support to tell them. They never felt anywhere near safe enough to do so.<br />
<br />
Put all of this into a blender, and you can see why so many were hopeful that @footballergay was real, and not what it turned out to be. Sports seems to be the final frontier for the queer community, particularly queer men, and that finish line is getting ever closer, but still so far away. As societal attitudes change, someone soon is going to come out. They will not be anonymously tweeting the play-by-play of their behind the scenes process; they will come out much like how Rogers, Martin, Collins and others did. How can we help them do so, so that they feel comfortable being themselves by default?<br />
<br />
If you hear homophobic language and slurs, tell those people not just to stop saying them, but why they hurt and what you can say otherwise. While you'll inevitably get some resistance, the large majority of people don't know what damage those words can do, and don't want to hurt anyone. Newly out Australian soccer player Andy Brennan recently told a story about how he did that during a game and how the reaction was of shock and regret from that player about his words, not resistance and anger.<br />
<br />
Progress here is not linear. We are thankfully light years ahead of when Graeme Le Saux was rumored to be gay because he read the Guardian and wasn't interested in the typical lifestyle of a high level English soccer player, and where hockey coaches would call places on the ice where you shouldn't pass the puck "queer street", but not far enough ahead for episodes like this one to be a fear, not a reality. Someone, somewhere, is preparing to come out, and they need support not just from their own circle, but beyond to feel safe in doing so.<br />
<br />
The fevered interest in @footballergay and it's story, and the largely positive support it got when people believed it was real shows that at the very least, something here has changed for the better.<br />
<br />
"It is a not a personal desire to be perceived as a pioneer of any kind," <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-gay-footballer-real-or-not-challenges-english-soccer-to-champion-lgbt-equality" target="_blank">the account wrote early on.</a> "My hope is simply to be able to pursue the career and dream I've had since childhood, while simultaneously being permitted to be myself". Obviously, the person behind that account had no desire to do any of that, but people who have come out did that and those who will follow will want to do that too. They need the chance to do so, and it's incumbent on all of us, even those who already came out to make that possible.<br />
<br />
We can all be angry at this particularly false dawn, but know that there is hope in that disappointment. Hopefully it isn't just people like me who have a vested interest in these stories who are angry and hurt. But that anger can be channeled into doing actual good for people who desperately need it so when they feel it's time to tell the world their truth, they can do so confidently, safely and freely.<br />
<br />
For the heartbroken and closeted young soccer player who desperately wanted this to be real, there needs to be hope that one day a story like this will be. We all, queer or not, have a responsibility to help make that a reality. Hopefully after this sad episode, the lessons learned will make it easier for someone to feel free and safe to tell their truth, and be celebrated for doing so.<br />
<br />
It's more than past due.<br />
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8660737796923248785.post-19940442141059268092019-04-10T16:42:00.001-04:002019-04-10T16:42:53.827-04:002019 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions + a look back at Regular Season Predictions that went wrongIn another installment of this blog's "cheap content" machine, here we'll look back on my regular season predictions for the last NHL season that went terribly, while also giving out my sure to be wrong predictions for the playoffs. Some content is better than none.<br />
<br />
<b>Division Winners (predicted): </b>PIT, TB, NSH, SJ<br />
<b>Division Winners (actual): </b>WSH, TB, NSH, CGY<br />
<br />
Not too bad. Pittsburgh finished third in the Metro and San Jose finished second in the Pacific, and would have won the division if Martin Jones could have stopped a beach ball.<br />
<br />
<b>East Playoff Teams (predicted): </b>TB, TOR, BOS, FLA, PIT, WSH, PHI, CBJ<br />
<b>East Playoff Teams (actual): </b>TB, BOS, TOR, CBJ, WSH, NYI, PIT, CAR<br />
<br />
Overrating the Panthers and Flyers might be a sad new trend I've started that I will be sure to end in October. Both teams should have been far better than they were, but a gross combination of bad coaching and bad goaltending sunk them. I had Carolina as team nine in the East, and they ended up being team seven, and I thought the Islanders would be one step removed from the Senators in the East's basement, and they had the fifth best record. Barry Trotz is a wizard.<br />
<br />
<b>West Playoff Teams (predicted): </b>NSH, WPG, STL, DAL, SJ, VGK, LA, CGY<br />
<b>West Playoff Teams (actual): </b>NSH, WPG, STL, DAL, CGY, SJ, VGK, COL<br />
<br />
Those LA Kings..., I deserve no credit for predicting the Central as it happened because it didn't sort itself out until the last day of the season, and I looked pretty dumb in January when the Blues were terrible. No one saw the Flames being this good, although I did have them sneaking into the postseason.<br />
<br />
<b>Awards (prediction then comments):</b><br />
Hart: Connor McDavid (he could win it every year, but Nikita Kucherov is running away with this)<br />
Art Ross: McDavid (again, Kuch ran away with this)<br />
Rocket Richard: Patrik Laine (he has goalless streaks that make your mind go numb. Also Ovi is immortal).<br />
Norris: Erik Karlsson (spent too much time injured, although over a full season he would have been in the race. Mark Giordano has won this)<br />
Calder: Andrei Svechnikov (good, but not great season. Elias Pettersson has it locked up)<br />
Jack Adams: Jim Montgomery (he did a good job, but not "best NHL team in a quarter century" or "reviving the Islanders from the scrap heap" good.)<br />
First Coach Fired: Todd McLellan (4th of 4 fired in November. Congrats to John Stevens!)<br />
<br />
<b>Preseason Conference and Stanley Cup Finals Picks:</b><br />
TB/PIT, SJ/NSH, TB/SJ.<br />
<br />
All could happen, but they don't look as likely now.<br />
<br />
<b>Postseason Predictions:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>East:</b><br />
TB over CBJ in 5<br />
BOS over TOR in 7<br />
WSH over CAR in 6<br />
PIT over NYI in 6<br />
<br />
TB over BOS in 6<br />
WSH over PIT in 7<br />
<br />
TB over WSH in 6<br />
<br />
<b>West:</b><br />
NSH over DAL in 7<br />
STL over WPG in 6<br />
CGY over COL in 5<br />
VGK over SJ in 7<br />
<br />
STL over NSH in 6<br />
VGK over CGY in 6<br />
<br />
VGK over STL in 6<br />
<br />
<b>2019 Stanley Cup Final:</b><br />
TB over VGK in 6<br />
<br />
Conn Smythe: Nikita Kucherov<br />
<br />
Pretty chalky. Enjoy the playoffs!Matt Lichtenstadterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03487445323846879038noreply@blogger.com0