Tuesday, October 1, 2019

2019-20 NHL Season Predictions

October is the best month of the year if you're one of the few people who still clicks on this blog, because you get prediction columns and reviews of prediction columns. There's no better content than that, right? When you check back in April, be sure to take it easy on me, because I might be less wrong than someone else, I hope.

Metropolitan Division:
1. Washington
2. Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. New York Rangers 
5. New Jersey
6. Philadelphia
7. Columbus
8. New York Islanders

There is no more egalitarian division in hockey than the Metro. Every team thinks they have a good chance at the playoffs, and they're all right. There are plenty of reasons for fatalists to satiate their own fears about each of these teams though. 

Washington probably has the fewest flaws of any in this division. While their playoff voodoo returned even after winning the Cup, they're still a dominant regular season team. Some of the depth pieces have shuffled, but the core remains the same, though one year older. Since there's no one that can truly contend on that level with them, they're favorites. Carolina has made plenty of moves, and while it's unlikely they're replicating last year's playoff run, they're still incredibly deep, especially on the back end. It's hard to see a team this deep missing the postseason. Pittsburgh is on the decline, and whether it's gradual or sudden is still an open question. With Crosby and Malkin, they're still a playoff team, though their supporting cast continues to decline.

Everyone else is fighting for a wild card that will be hotly contested. The Rangers have made some significant upgrades with Kaapo Kakko, Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox, but they're still not great defensively and many of their young prospects haven't developed in the smoothest of ways. New Jersey certainly went for flash in acquiring PK Subban and Nikita Gusev along with drafting Jack Hughes, but are they deep enough to succeed during the long grind of 82 games, and do they have any hope in net? Philadelphia made plenty of moves on the ice and behind the bench, but it all doesn't add up to very much being different. Columbus is down Panarin, Duchene and Bobrovsky, and while they believe in their kids, can anyone believe in their goaltending? And the Islanders added no one except a goalie to replace one that nearly won the Vezina last season and probably should still be there. Is the system truly king?

Atlantic Division:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Florida (WC)
5. Montreal (WC)
6. Buffalo
7. Detroit
8. Ottawa

Unlike the Metro, the Atlantic is relatively straightforward. Last year's top three will be the top three again, there will be two teams fighting for a playoff spot, and everyone else is rebuilding to some degree. The order in which the Atlantic's top three will be slotted is a matter of debate. Tampa is still the class of the league, but will what happened in the series against Columbus hang over their heads? We may not find out until April, but the roster is still fairly loaded in spite of the cap crunch they had this summer, so a big drop off isn't expected. Toronto will score a ton of goals, but they may also give up a ton. Have their moves made them considerably better than the team of the last three years? That is also a matter of debate. They will have enough this year to nudge the Bruins out of home ice in their inevitable playoff series. The Bruins are still the Bruins, which means they'll be a tough out every night.

Florida spent big bucks to end their losing drought, and with the rest of the East taking a slight step back, and the Panthers adding one of the league's best goalies and coaches, that should be enough to plug a leaky ship and guide it back to the postseason, though the Panthers always find a way to underwhelm. Montreal got career years out of multiple forwards last year and it wasn't enough to make the postseason, and many of their hopes will ride on young centers Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki if they are to get back to the postseason. It will not be easy. Buffalo has a new coach with a great pedigree, but they don't have a great blueline or goaltending tandem yet. They're closer than they've been to the postseason, but they're both not there yet. Detroit and Ottawa are both in the nascent stages of long rebuilds, and while the long term is bright, the present is concerned with lottery balls.

Central Division:

1. Nashville
2. Colorado
3. Dallas
4. St. Louis (WC) 
5. Winnipeg
6. Chicago
7. Minnesota

The NHL's toughest division holds its title for another season, because it holds the defending champs and some of the league's toughest regular season outs. Nashville has regressed since it's 2017 trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but adding Matt Duchene should stem the tide a little, and the loss of PK Subban is offset by the arrival of Dante Fabbro. The Avs are a team everyone loves, and for good reason. They have an incredible future with great players for the present and future. They will be one of the fastest and exciting teams this year, but they had fewer wins last year than Arizona, who only had 86 points. To go from that to Cup favorite is not easy. Dallas added a couple of Pacific division veterans to help a defensively sound team go over the top in the postseason after last year's Game 7 heartbreak, and they'll be good enough to certainly test the best.

The defending champs made their first big move by trading for Justin Faulk, giving up a solid defenseman in Joel Edmunson, and a prospect in Dominic Bokk. Faulk is not much better if at all than what they gave up. But they are still the same aggressive forechecking team they were a season ago, and if Jordan Binnington is still the same goaltender from his run last season, they will be more consistent. They're not quite as talented as their rivals, hence why they're a Wild Card team, though they're still a playoff lock. 

Winnipeg's offseason from hell has taken a bite out of what was a team set up to be a juggernaut. If Dustin Byfuglien doesn't return, then their blueline is relying an awful lot on this year's first round pick, Ville Heinola. It looks to be a fatal flaw. While they have plenty of scoring punch, their depth is also incredibly sketchy. They will not make the playoffs without some substantial additions. Chicago scored a boatload of goals last year, and also gave up a boatload. Adding Robin Lehner, Calvin De Haan and Olli Maata might not do enough to counteract all those goals against, though. Minnesota did get rid of their problem GM, but this is still an old team with an old core that is only getting older, with a prospect pipeline that is far from encouraging.

Pacific Division:
1. Vegas
2. Calgary
3. San Jose
4. Arizona (WC)
5. Vancouver
6. Edmonton
7. Anaheim
8. Los Angeles

Watching the Vegas Golden Knights has been an experience in the last two seasons, from their Cup run to how they went out last year. They are, in a weak division, the strongest team, even if their blueline is shallow and Marc-Andre Fleury is being asked to do too much. Calgary, though they traded for Milan Lucic, still have plenty of speed and skill up front with a very good blueline to boot. But can they keep the puck out of the net? It doesn't seem like there's optimism on that front. Speaking of bad goaltending, San Jose had the worst in the league last year and still made it to the Conference Final! They also played with a very broken Erik Karlsson too. But they don't have Joe Pavelski anymore, and their depth from years past is gone. They're still a playoff team, but do they have enough to challenge like they've been able to?

Perhaps this pick is aspirational, but I really want the Coyotes to make the playoffs. I like the moves that they have made, and Rick Tocchet got a broken, injured group to within earshot of the postseason. He is also a Phil Kessel whisperer, and getting him to score is what the Coyotes desperately need. If some of their young talent like Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton and others finally come good, they can get in. Vancouver will challenge them because of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes, but the veterans are what will let them down, because they just don't have enough good ones. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, but little else, and there's very little reason to believe that Ken Holland and Dave Tippett can make lemonade without any lemons to use. Anaheim is finally rebuilding, and some of their young forwards have promise. They also have John Gibson, who could win the Vezina on a better team. But their great defense pipeline is now barren. The Kings went sour gradually, and then suddenly, and now they're in a full rebuild mode again. Alexis Lafrieniere would look good in black and silver.

Playoffs:
Eastern Conference:

Washington (M1) over Florida (WC1) in 7
Carolina (M2) over Pittsburgh (M2) in 5
Tampa (A1) over Montreal (WC2) in 6
Toronto (A2) over Boston (A3) in 7

Carolina (M2) over Washington (M1) in 7
Tampa (A1) over Toronto (A2) in 7

Tampa (A1) over Carolina (M2) in 5

Western Conference:

St. Louis (WC1) over Nashville (C1) in 6
Colorado (C2) over Dallas (C3) in 6
Vegas (P1) over Arizona (WC2) in 5
Calgary (P2) over San Jose (P3) in 6

Colorado (C2) over St. Louis (WC1) in 6
Vegas (P1) over Calgary (P2) in 6

Vegas (P1) over Colorado (C2) in 6

Stanley Cup Final:

Tampa over Vegas in 6

Awards:
Hart: Nathan MacKinnon (COL)
Art Ross: Connor McDavid (EDM)
Rocket Richard: Alex Ovechkin (WSH)
Norris: Victor Hedman (TB)
Vezina: Frederik Andersen (TOR)
Calder: Kaapo Kakko (NYR)
Jack Adams: Rick Tocchet (ARZ)
First Coach Fired: Paul Maurice (WPG)

Happy Hockey Season! I hope I didn't pick one of your favorite teams and favorite players to do well. 

Monday, September 30, 2019

2019 MLB Season Predictions in Review + Playoff Predictions

More cheap content for this old blog with the same design it has had for eight plus years, but is the perfect place for said content that doesn't fit anywhere else and is fun to write up. How badly did I do with my 2019 MLB Predictions? Badly, let's say.

Actual standings in parenthesis.

NL East:
1. Philadelphia (ATL)
2. Washington (WSH)
3. Atlanta (NYM)
4. New York Mets (PHI)
5. Miami (MIA)

Atlanta is becoming a quiet juggernaut with a great young lineup and rotation. They've won the NL East for the second straight year and are second favorites to win the NL. Philly didn't have the rotation and bullpen to buoy all the money they spent this offseason, and Gabe Kapler's seat is getting toasty. Washington did end up making the playoffs after their awful start after all.

AL East:
1. New York Yankees (NYY)
2. Boston (TB)
3. Tampa Bay (BOS)
4. Toronto (TOR)
5. Baltimore (BAL)

In spite of the litany of injuries the Yankees endured, they still won 103 games. It truly is a remarkable achievement. Boston's World Series defense went poorly, like most of theirs have since 2004, and Tampa Bay continues to do the absolute most with the least to make the playoffs again. No wonder everyone in the league wants everyone in their front office. The back end of the division was as bad as predicted.

NL Central:
1.  St. Louis (STL)
2.  Chicago Cubs (MIL)
3.  Milwaukee (CHC)
4.  Cincinnati (CIN)
5.  Pittsburgh (PIT)

Saying the Cubs were long in the tooth turned out to be prescient after their September collapse, which allowed the Redbirds to sneak up and win the NL Central while getting Milwaukee back into the postseason minus a potential league MVP in Christian Yelich. Joe Maddon is gone, so the Cubs in many ways are going back to the drawing board. The NL Central was the most equal division this year, and some big runs, positive or negative, drew the lines for the playoffs.

AL Central:
1. Cleveland (MIN)
2. Minnesota (CLE)
3. Chicago White Sox (CHW)
4. Kansas City (KC)
5. Detroit (DET)

Hitting the most home runs in a single season in MLB history helped propel the Twins back to the postseason for the second time in three years, but they have to play the Yankees again. They had a little more consistency everywhere than the Indians, who had the same 93 wins they did a year ago, but last year that was enough to win them the AL Central, and this year they just missed the playoffs with a historically high win total for a team to miss. They would have won the NL Central, for instance. A frugal offseason really did cost them. Everyone else ranged from scuffling to outright tanking and historically bad.

NL West:
1. Los Angeles (LAD)
2. Colorado (ARZ)
3. San Diego (SF)
4. Arizona (SD)
5. San Francisco (COL)

The Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and everyone else is playing catch up. Arizona's rebuild on the fly allowed them to have a positive season with a platform to build on for the future. San Diego and Colorado both underwhelmed in a major way after their preseason expectations, and that cost San Diego manager Andy Green his job. It doesn't look like anyone is challenging the Dodgers any time soon.

AL West:
1. Houston (HOU)
2. LA Angels (OAK)
3. Oakland (TEX)
4. Seattle (LAA)
5. Texas (SEA)

The Astros are still the Astros, and no one gave them much of a run in the AL West again. The A's continue to do quite a bit with not very much and make the playoffs again, but it's going to be tough to see them winning a series if they do make it to play their division rivals. Mike Trout is still being let down by everyone around him, and perhaps Joe Maddon is the solution to that problem. Everyone else is rebuilding to varying degrees, and the order is shuffling deck chairs.

Preseason Playoffs Predictions:
NL: 1. LAD 2. PHI 3. STL 4. WSH 5. CHC
AL: 1. NYY 2. HOU 3. CLE 4. BOS 5. LAA

Actual Playoff Order:
NL: 1. LAD 2. ATL 3. STL 4. WSH 5. MIL
AL: 1. HOU 2. NYY 3. MIN 4. OAK 5. TB

5 out of 10 playoff teams predicted isn't great! When the league is so clearly sorted into teams that are trying and teams that aren't, those predictions feel even worse! But there are only a few teams who really failed to live up to the hype this year, which include Boston, Philly and Colorado.

Preseason Award Predictions (with comments):
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt (Going to be Cody Bellinger, could have been Yelich if he didn't get hurt)
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (Spent too much time injured. Going to be Mike Trout again because he's simply not human)
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Jacob DeGrom outpitched him again, but he'll be in the conversation)
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Like the rest of the Red Sox, he flopped. It'll be either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole who both had super seasons)
NL Rookie: Fernando Tatis Jr. (Pete Alonso made history every time he took an at bat, and Tatis had too many injuries)
AL Rookie: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (not quite there yet. Yordan Alvarez was insane for the Astros)
NL Manager: Dave Martinez (he took his team back from the brink, but he got them there in the first place. Craig Counsell has does another good job with the Brewers, but Brian Snitker deserves love for the machine he's built in Atlanta)
AL Manager: Aaron Boone (slam dunk considering the injuries his team has gone through)

New Playoff Predictions:

NL: 
Wild Card Game: Nationals over Brewers

NLDS: Braves over Cardinals in 4
            Dodgers over Nationals in 4

NLCS: Braves over Dodgers in 7

AL:
Wild Card Game: Rays over A's

ALDS: Astros over Rays in 3
            Yankees over Twins in 4

ALCS: Yankees over Astros in 7

World Series: Yankees over Braves in 6

These will end up going wrong too, I bet.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

2019 NFL Season Predictions

The National Football League, the world's greatest reality show, has returned for it's 100th season. Nothing in the NFL is ever short of storylines, intrigue and drama, and this season should be no different. Is this the year someone other than the Patriots dominates the AFC (don't bet on it)? Is this the year where the Cleveland Browns awake from their decades long slumber of irrelevance (more than possible)? Is this the year that I finally do somewhat decently in this predictions piece? Probably not, but that's not going to stop me from trying!

AFC East:
1. New England: 12-4
2. Buffalo: 8-8
3. New York Jets: 7-9
4. Miami: 3-13

Since 2001, the Patriots have failed to win the AFC East only twice. In that time, they've won six Super Bowls. With a league that is more even than ever, that is truly an incredible accomplishment. The defending champs are a little weaker this year without Gronk and irreplaceable center David Andrews, but Bill Belichick and company always find players to plug in those gaps, and they do it better than anyone else. While it looks like the AFC East might be finally catching up, that Brady guy, if he's still healthy, is hard to beat.

Buffalo has a solid roster behind Josh Allen, who I'm personally not a fan of, but his skillset works well with the up-and-coming squad they have. They aren't quite contenders yet though. The same can be same of the Jets and Adam Gase, even though the new coach pulled off an amazing coup to get front office control after previous management threw money at anyone who would listen this offseason. Gase has the chops though. And for his old team, they're tanking. Watch Alabama and Oregon games instead, Dolphins fans, your next QB is on one of those two teams.

NFC East:
1. Philadelphia: 12-4
2. Dallas: 9-7
3. New York Giants: 5-11
4. Washington: 5-11

I'm not going out on a limb when I say the Eagles are one of the best run teams in the league. They always find a way to acquire, develop and manage not just talent, but assets. Even when their franchise QB gets hurt, and the Super Bowl MVP backup leaves, they still can feel decently confident in the roster they've built. There are few spots where they are thin on their roster, and that depth is enough to pull away from the pack.

Dallas' drama is going to hurt them at some point, and they took advantage of an incredibly mediocre division last year to win it. With the Eagles reloading, that's not happening this year. They are solid, especially in the trenches, but do they have the gamebreaker needed to take them over the top? That's a question yet to be answered. Both the Giants and Washington are in similar spots with talent deficient rosters and rookie QB's waiting in the wings. It's a matter of when not if both of them start. Both have also been chronically mismanaged to boot. There is very little separating them, including how sports talk radio phone lines will explode with "when should Haskins and Jones start" takes.

AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh: 10-6
2. Cleveland: 9-7
3. Baltimore: 8-8
4. Cincinnati: 4-12

It's been 30 years since the Cleveland Browns won their division, and it feels like now more than ever is their best chance to. They had a spectacular offseason in bringing in loads of talent, and with a QB primed for a major jump in Baker Mayfield, it seems like this could be the year football in Cleveland is finally back. But not so fast my friends... the Steelers are still here. With everyone discounting them after the drama from last season, could it be that Pittsburgh is in a promising position now, one where they are the underdogs? Possibly. Replacing Brown and Bell is hard to do, but they basically had to do that last season and still nearly made the playoffs, and their defense is better now too. At some point, the pressure and expectations may weigh heavy on the young Browns shoulders.

Lamar Jackson took over towards the end of last season and lit up the league with inspired play running, but not so much throwing. The struggles in the Wild Card game against the Chargers might be an omen for 2019, especially because they've suffered through a major talent drain. Suggs, Mosley among others are not there, and that is going to catch up with them at some point. Jackson must show improvement as a passer, especially so the Ravens can win critical division toss-up games. And as for the Bengals, the Sean McVay coaching tree didn't drop a great apple here, with Zac Taylor struggling to build a staff and a healthy roster, especially with another awful AJ Green injury. Don't look now, but the Bengals are also very much in the Tua/Justin sweepstakes.

NFC North:
1. Green Bay: 11-5
2. Minnesota: 10-6
3. Chicago: 8-8
4. Detroit: 6-10

Matt LaFleur, another Sean McVay coaching tree apple, tries to ripen a bunch of stale Packers in cheese country. Aaron Rodgers seems on board, for now, and with that, plus a heavily revamped and revitalized defense, are the Packers back to being favorites again in this division? Seems so. Minnesota thought they were one great QB away last season, and they were right, because Kirk Cousins is not a great QB. But the offensive line did fail him, and they couldn't really run the ball nearly as well as they should have considering their talent. Some of that will regress back to "normal", which should make Vikings a playoff team.

There's something incredibly eerie about these Bears, namely that they remind me of last year's Jaguars. A team with a dominant defense that did things that are probably not replicable, and a QB that did barely enough to let the defense do what it needed to do. Mitch Trubisky should shudder at hearing Blake Bortles comparisons. Jacksonville finished 5-11 last season, and that was because the offense totally fell apart. That's not likely in Chicago, but some of those games that defense won in Chicago last year won't happen again this year. As for the Lions, Matt Patricia finds his team in limbo again. Not truly bad enough to tank, but not good enough to fully compete in the NFC for the playoffs. How much longer can that last?

AFC South:
1. Houston: 9-7
2. Tennessee: 8-8
3. Jacksonville: 7-9
4. Indianapolis: 5-11

Jeff Fisher, he very much the most AFC South coach of all time, said he wouldn't settle for 7-9 BS as coach of the Rams. His old division is very much the embodiment of 7-9 BS, with every team having a fatal flaw, but not so fatal that it could cost them the division. Houston (Bill O'Brien) traded away their entire future for an offensive lineman that they desperately needed in Laremy Tunsil, but they massively overpaid for, right after trading away former first overall pick Jadaveon Clowney for peanuts. But because Houston has DeShaun Watson, De'Andre Hopkins and JJ Watt, they may have enough to squeak the division out, even though they've mortgaged their future and could easily fall off again.

Tennessee is stuck with a QB in Marcus Mariota that is mediocre and unimpressive, which is also true of his skill position players, but buoyed by a solid defense, they should still be in contention, but just. The Jaguars realized their Blake Bortles mistake and overpaid Nick Foles to be their savior, and since he's a better QB than Bortles, and their defense is still one of the best in football, that should mean the Jaguars take advantage in this division, right? Speaking from experience, trusting them is incredibly difficult and finding consistency is even harder. They'll be better, but not playoffs better. And no matter what people say about Jacoby Brissett, he cannot lift the Colts to the playoffs, even though the roster around him is solid. An off year to draft/luck into a good QB might just be what's needed in Indy.

NFC South:
1. New Orleans: 12-4
2. Atlanta: 10-6
3. Carolina: 8-8
4. Tampa Bay: 6-10

After two of the most heartbreaking playoff exits in NFL history, the Saints try to regroup for one last ride with Drew Brees, who even through his Bayou superpowers might be starting to fade just a little. But with the talent around him, that won't hurt the Saints just yet. The postseason will once again define them. Atlanta lost practically their entire defense to injury last year, a defense that was extremely solid when put together. Matt Ryan also had a historically good season and is never really given his due. The Falcons will be back in the postseason this year.

Cam Newton is a beat up man, and while when healthy he is fantastic, he's just not healthy all that much anymore. They're still light in depth on offense, and that defense just isn't what it once was. They're not bad, but the NFC is too crowded for a team like them to make the postseason. Bruce Arians will try to revive Jameis Winston's career, and he's got a good chance of doing that with his offensive know-how. But their defense is awful, and no offense can outpace that bad a defense for long.

AFC West:
1. Kansas City: 13-3
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5
3. Oakland: 5-11
4. Denver: 4-12

Kansas City has the league's MVP, some of its most explosive offensive weapons, and a thoroughly revitalized and improved defense. What's not to like? They're going to be one of the fastest teams in the league, and speed kills, especially with Pat Mahomes in control. There are some concerns at running back, but adding LeSean McCoy might just address those issues. How defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo holds up might be the difference between winning the Super Bowl and coming up short again.

Once again, the Chargers are solid all around, even without Melvin Gordon, Derwin James and Russell Okung. It's a testament to how well built that roster is. However, that game against the Patriots in the playoffs showed last year that they may have bumped up against the glass ceiling and have no further up to go. They're a no doubt playoff team, but they're not quite championship material. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have tried to drastically revamp the Raiders, and it feels like this is a pause year before moving into taxpayer paradise near Paradise, Nevada next year. They added big names, but the roster, particularly on defense, is shallow. The Broncos still think Joe Flacco is the same QB that beat them in the playoffs seven years ago, which isn't true. They have an OK defense, but this is a team primed for the bottom to really fault out. If not for some upper management issues, would John Elway still be running football ops?

NFC West:
1. Los Angeles Rams: 11-5
2. Seattle: 9-7
3. San Francisco: 7-9
4. Arizona: 5-11

Sean McVay himself still knows what he's doing, and even with a banged up Todd Gurley, they're still the team to beat in the NFC West. The Rams are not quite as deep as they once were, particularly on defense, but they have more than enough to win the division for a third straight year. Seattle has Russell Wilson, which makes them more than good enough to compete so long as he stays upright, and now they have a fearsome pass rusher in Jadaveon Clowney, but they may not have enough wholesale like some of their NFC playoff competitors now.

If Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy, the 49ers have a chance to make the playoffs, especially considering how decent some of the backups looked last year. But they have too many other teams to pass to get there. Kyler Murray will be fun to watch this season when he has his moments of magic, but there are too many concerns about the rest of that roster, and the coaching staff, to get them beyond the basement.

AFC Playoff Order:
1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Pittsburgh
4. Houston
5. LA Chargers
6. Cleveland

NFC Playoff Order:
1. New Orleans
2. Philadelphia
3. LA Rams
4. Green Bay
5. Atlanta
6. Minnesota

AFC Playoff Predictions:

3. Pittsburgh over 6. Cleveland
5. LA Chargers over 4. Houston

1. Kansas City over 5. LA Chargers
2. New England over 3. Pittsburgh

1. Kansas City over 2. New England

NFC Playoff Predictions:

3. LA Rams over 6. Minnesota
5. Atlanta over 4. Green Bay

1. New Orleans over 5. Atlanta
2. Philadelphia over 3. LA Rams

2. Philadelphia over 1. New Orleans

Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City over Philadelphia 34-27

The Andy Reid Bowl would pit two well constructed teams against one another, and two teams with so many connections from the front office down to the field. It would be a triumph of roster building, planning and coaching. Kansas City has just enough to squeak by and end their 50 year championship drought.

Award Predictions:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (KC)
OPOY: Julio Jones (ATL)
DPOY: Aaron Donald (LAR)
OROY: Miles Sanders (PHI)
DROY: Josh Allen (JAX)
Comeback: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Coach: Freddie Kitchens (CLE)

Sorry to everyone in Philadelphia and Kansas City in advance for these predictions, since it will inevitably jinx them. Enjoy the new season!

Sunday, August 25, 2019

Andrew Luck and Moral Courage

In professional sports, almost no one gets to retire on their own terms. Even for these exceptional athletes, the harsh realities of professional sports forces players to leave their games far earlier than anyone would want to. To be good enough to retire on your own accord is a great luxury afforded to very few.

Andrew Luck is one of those few lucky athletes. His powers and potential seemed limitless from the moment he stepped foot on a college football field, let alone in Indianapolis. Because of that, it seemed like his decision to retire would come long in the future, with rings on his fingers and with a gold jacket waiting for him one state over. But it came, shockingly, when he was still at the height of his powers, as a Super Bowl contender and one of the best quarterbacks in football.

Football is a grueling game. Getting physically ready to play becomes a task in of itself, and Andrew Luck's injury history is proof positive of that.


It's this cycle of pain and rehab, pain and rehab that never ceased which broke Andrew Luck's infectious love for football. He is a player who congratulated opposing defensive linemen who sacked with a big smile on his face, and almost never showed frustration. His happy go-lucky nature almost seemed misplaced in the cold, sometimes heartless NFL of today. But that happiness and childlike joy hid the real pain he went through; the pain of having to do the same thing over and over, while never getting a different result.

He was also, in another word, wordly. Football was his anything, but not his everything. He told Zak Keefer of the Athletic last year after the blowout loss to Kansas City in the playoffs that "if my worth as a human was going to be tied into how I did- the result of a performance in a football game- then I was going to have, pardon my French, a really s***ty life."

Luck might be one of the few football players who has ever earned the right to say that. Too often we see athletes as machines, robots, assets, pieces on a chess board in the game that has become so much a part of our collective self-worth, our identity and our sense of belonging. But human beings, with feelings, ambitions and complex emotions, are far more than that. Luck seemed keenly aware of it, even though he would never show it. He could proudly exclaim to the world he still owned a flip phone and people would not knock him for it because he's Andrew Luck.

So many people in life work their rear ends off to do what they love for a living, and so few get to do it. That love makes it easy to go through the ups and downs of the work of the job itself. Luck started to feel that football, specifically the grueling grind it takes physically and mentally just to play, was becoming work, which obfuscated the love of the game. He is certainly not the only one who feels this way in professional sports right now, but so many of them do not have the luxury of being a player who can dictate their own terms and say confidently, though still somewhat shaken, that this life isn't everything.

Very few professional athletes are wired like Andrew Luck, but so many go through those same experiences as he did. Too many never get the chance to say what he said, not just because of the money involved, but because these games were their entire life from practically birth until now. Giving it up means shifting to a world without control, which these players have given everything to acquire. As physically draining as these sports can be, the mental grind of just getting to the games  can be even more grueling. And it is this affect that causes players to go through not just the physical labor of professional sports, but the emotional labor too.

For Andrew Luck to retire now with seemingly so much more to give is shocking, but also comforting. He recognized something that so many of his peers may never will, and so many wish they could. While the life of a professional athlete is one so many of us lay people would give everything for, there is something so wonderful about living life on your own terms. By the time a professional athlete reaches the pinnacle, they are often not in control anymore, becoming slaves to the game they love because they have nothing else to fall back on. Andrew Luck proved to the world that even at the very top of the top of the pyramid of professional sports, there is another way forward.

Perhaps Luck's decision offers a path forward for other athletes in a similar position, even though they are far less wealthy. Professional sports are not the be all and end all of life, even though for so many it feels like it. Short term pain for long term gain for many means playing through injuries and giving everything just to get another game check, but thanks to Andrew Luck, it may now mean that while giving up the game you love can be gut-wrenching, the other side of the mountain that is life can be more fulfilling even while doing so.

Mark Twain said that "it is curious that physical courage should be so common in the world and yet moral courage so rare." Physical courage is a professional sports hallmark, yet moral courage, the courage of one's convictions, isn't. Andrew Luck showed moral courage to stand up for himself, against the whims of the professional sports machine and all that goaded him back into it, to live life on his terms, not someone else's.

His fellow professionals see that intrinsically, applauding publicly while silently nodding, many wishing they could do the same thing.

And on't we all wish we can do what he did, go out on our own terms to live life as we wish we could, confident in our own sense of self to do so?


Thursday, August 8, 2019

2019-20 Premier League Predictions

The transfer window has shut in England, Jim White has been put back in his cryogenic storage chamber until January 31 thanks to the new money from Comcast, and the Premier League's new season is just around the corner. More than ever, the league feels like an hourglass: very little in the middle, but quite a bit at the top and the bottom. Liverpool vs. Manchester City part two will be a spectacular show, the race for the top four will be entertaining as always, and a whole host of teams will try to stay in the big time. There's nothing quite like the Premier League on the planet, and this season should be no different.

Here are predictions you will probably discount and that will probably look dumb by November, in inverse order of predicted finish:

20. Norwich City

Copycats about in English soccer. When Jurgen Klopp proved that a German manager with a German style could bring reward, soon came the imitators on a lesser scale. Huddersfield pulled off multiple minor miracles with David Wagner which earned them two top flight seasons. Daniel Farke at Norwich has practically done the same. With a good dash of German nous, plus some promising young players, he transformed Norwich into a great attacking side. He will be relying plenty on players like Teemu Pukki, Max Aarons along with a couple of new loanees to keep the Canaries up. Farke hasn't exactly been backed with cash though. Their outgoing spend according to Transfermarkt was 3.75 million pounds. Can Norwich do what Huddersfield did a few seasons ago? They have more goals in them than the Terriers did, but they're not quite as solid defensively. Huddersfield staying up was a miracle, and Norwich staying up also will be a miracle.

19. Sheffield United:

Chris Wilder could be the next Eddie Howe, i.e. the next next big thing. Not too long ago, the Blades were in the third tier. They're in the Premier League now, well ahead of schedule. They haven't spent ridiculously, and have picked up quality in players like Oli McBurnie, Mo Besic and they even took a flyer on Ravel Morrison. Continuity will help in a major way, and their manager has proven he can do more with less, but does this group have the same potential as Bournemouth did? Probably not. Like with all teams at the bottom though, they have a punchers chance.

18. Brighton

Any Brighton fan would have taken two seasons in the top flight when they were promoted a couple of seasons ago, but it feels like they aspire to be more than a team that scrapes by to stay up, which is what Chris Hughton brought. Hiring Graham Potter, a manager who cut his teeth in Sweden with Ostersunds and took them from the fourth tier to the Europa League Round of 32 playing Arsenal in eight seasons, is certainly going in a different direction. He wants to play beautiful soccer, which is not exactly what they've been playing in the Premier League. They've made a couple of signings from the Championship, including big scorer Neal Maupay from Brentford because their big signings haven't exactly worked out. When Glenn Murray is still the club's leading marksman, that shows there have been problems in recruitment.

Potter took Swansea to 10th place last year, which isn't exactly amazing. But he could stay with the club for the long haul even if they're relegated. That, sadly, looks like it's in the Seagulls future.

17. Crystal Palace

When the calendar turns to December, that's when Palace wakes up and finally starts winning, no matter the manager. Roy Hodgson has done an incredible amount with what little he has, and what he nearly could have lost if Wilfried Zaha left this window. Thankfully for Palace, he didn't, but that situation is unsettled still. The big additions are James McCarthy from Everton who was lost in the shuffle and Victor Camarasa who was a very good player for a quite bad Cardiff team last term. They still don't have enough goals in their team, but with Roy's "magic" and some veteran experience, they'll have enough to scrape by, but it'll be a close shave.

16. Newcastle

Rafa Benitez finally had enough with the boardroom politics at St. James Park and departed for China, taking a huge amount of success with him. Not only did Newcastle finally feel safe from relegation for the first time in forever, Rafa felt like the glue holding the club together. But now that he's gone, the risk is back. Everyone sided with the Spanish manager and not ownership, which was the correct decision. Steve Bruce doesn't feel like an inspiring choice to replace him, but he has been backed with big signings Joelinton from Hoffenheim and Allan Saint-Maximin from Nice, who both have big potential. But do the players believe in the same way in Bruce as they did in Benitez? Whatever the case may be, the boardroom politics always translate to the pitch in the Northeast, and that means Newcastle are going to have to work hard to stay up, again, which they never should.

15. Aston Villa

Last year when Fulham was promoted, they spent the big bucks on trying to stay up and it flopped spectacularly. Aston Villa, back in the big leagues for the first time since 2016, are trying to do the same. They've spent a lot on players like Tyrone Mings, Matt Targett who have experience in England's top two flights, as well on other like Wesley, the Brazilian striker who came over from Belgium and Marvelous Nkamba, a midfielder who also came over from Club Brugge. The spending is always a risk, especially when it comes to building an entirely new squad. Dean Smith seems like a manager who is able to put it all together, however, and with far more stable ownership than when they went down, Villa looks to be on the right path to sustained success again. But the first year is always one of the toughest, and their saving grace might be just how many other teams are in their position.

14. Southampton

For the last few seasons, the Saints spent a lot of time dancing around possible, if not sometimes probable relegation. Ralph Hassenhuttl, the man who brought RB Leipzig into our lives, did a ton of work to keep Southampton up last season with not all that much. The signings haven't been there either, though there is potential with Che Adams from Birmingham City and Moussa Djenepo from Standard Liege. The squad is still a little bloated, but at times last year, Saints did look truly impressive. They're not what they were when they were a team challenging to break the Sky Six, but they may have enough this year to not dance around relegation for the first time in a while. However, teams like them, including Villa, Swansea and Sunderland, eventually did go down dancing around that fire for too long. There is major risk for Southampton now, but they seem to know just what to do to get out from under the trap door.

13. Burnley

Burnley are the new Stoke. They don't play beautiful soccer, they don't have the most talent around, but they always do enough not just to annoy you, but beat you by being their annoying selves, and they always stay up. In the new fast and fluid Premier League, a club like Burnley should have been relegated ages ago. But they're not going to be, not so long as Sean Dyche is at the club. They're managed well and run well, even though they don't spend a ton of money. Their biggest impact player could be Dwight McNeil, the young attacking midfielder from their academy who really picked up his form at the end of last season. They may never do what they did in finishing seventh a few seasons ago ever again, but until something major changes, rightly or wrongly, they're a Premier League club.

12. Bournemouth

What is more surprising: Bournemouth being in the top flight for their fifth straight season, or that Eddie Howe is still their manager? Both are pretty surprising, but since the latter directly influences the former, it's not as big of a surprise as it once would have been. They will never been in a direct relegation scrap, and they'll probably never push much higher than where they are right now, but so long as Eddie Howe is there and not at a big club, they'll be a consistent Premier League club. Their signings confirm that this summer. David Brooks had a really good season, and he alongside Leicester's James Maddison feel like the next big movers to big clubs in short order.

11. Watford

By Watford's standards, this summer was fairly quiet. The major outgoings were players who were either on loan or on the fringes, and they brought in fliers like Danny Welbeck in addition to their big signing of Ismaila Sarr to augment a squad that was already solid. Keeping Abdoulaye Doucoure, who is one of the most underrated midfielders in England, was a good piece of business. Nothing about Watford is spectacular, but they've become a pretty solid Premier League club that can always pull a shock against one of the league's big boys, as evidenced by their FA Cup Final run last year. It also feels like Javi Gracia is a manager that one day will be destined for a bigger club, too.

10. West Ham

It feels like West Ham are suffering from an old creed from "Bill Nye": inertia is a property of matter. They're never going to be in a relegation scrap ever again, but they never feel like they'll ever seriously challenge for Europe. Sebastian Haller and Pablo Fornals are ambitious signings, but ones that carry enough risk that the big boys stayed away. They have potential as ever. Felipe Anderson, Andriy Yarmolenko are players who have bigger clubs in their future, but something always holds them back, something that the three clubs above them always seem to possess.

9. Wolves

They had a spectacular season last term playing exactly the way Nuno wanted them do, and they did it to the effect of being the most successful newly promoted team ever. There's no reason to think that they can't do that again with the entirety of their squad back plus smart additions like Patrick Cutrone and Jesus Vallejo, but there is an elephant in the room: Europa League. It's called a poisoned chalice for a reason. Bigger and better clubs have been tripped up by Thursdays in random parts of the Schengen area and beyond, and Wolves have to contend with that and with the grind of another Premier League season with clubs knowing what to do against them now. That's a tough needle to thread. Expect a little regression this year, but they'll still be a top half side.

8. Everton

Remember when the thing holding Everton back was ambitious ownership that would spend big? Well that's not a problem anymore, and they still always hit the glass ceiling no matter the manager. Marco Silva hit it last year, in spite of Everton spending gobs of cash and not doing it so well. They've done it again, but this time losing quite a bit more from their squad, including Idrissa Gana and Ademola Lookman. They've reinvested well in Moise Kean, Fabian Delph and perhaps Alex Iwobi, but it still feels like something is missing. They're deeper than Wolves and West Ham, but they're not seemingly what they want to be, strive to be; mostly because they are what they can be and no more. They could make a European appearance this year, but finishing a relatively mediocre but safe eighth seems like it's Everton's destiny.

7. Leicester

They are not the team that won the Premier League in 2016, far from it. That's not something that will ever happen again. But every summer, they lose a critical piece (last year Riyad Mahrez, this year Harry Maguire) and they don't lose a step. Brendan Rogers has a very good squad to work with this year including two great young Belgian midfielders in Youri Tielemans and Dennis Praet, a budding superstar in James Maddison and that Vardy guy. Bu they're not as strong in central defense as they once were, and if Vardy's not scoring goals, who is? They are the best of the rest in England, especially with their manager (I know we all laugh at Deluded Brendan but he's not really that anymore). It's hard not to be impressed with what they've done.

6. Manchester United

Into the Sky Six we go, and we find Manchester United in a very weird spot. They've spent big on three British players that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wanted, but yet something is missing. Romelu Lukaku is gone with his replacement possibly being a revitalized Alexis Sanchez or maybe a 17 year old. Paul Pogba is still evidently not happy, and after that initial burst when Solskjaer arrived, Manchester United scuppered to the finish. Would anyone be shocked to see United sack him if they're hovering around 10th in November? Probably not, but the club's problems go deeper than him. Recruitment, structure, vision are all missing. The other five above them seem to have more of that in spite of their issues. United seem not just stuck, but listless.

5. Chelsea

Frank Lampard, after one season of nearly taking Derby County to the Premier League, is now Chelsea's manager. He comes in after Maurizio Sarri won the Europa League and finished third, but left a sour taste in Chelsea's mouth on the way out. Chelsea were also on a transfer ban, so their winter signing of Christian Pulisic is their only true new incoming, if you don't account for young players like Mason Mount. Losing Eden Hazard, the one true transcendent player they had through all the ups and downs, means this club is going to look quite strange. No Ruben Loftus-Cheek for a while will also hurt. Will some of the loan army that is returning give Chelsea a chance at the top four? Yes. Will Christian Pulisic be good, but probably not live up to his transfer fee? Probably. Were they handcuffed this window to do anything notable? Yes. All of this means that while they made the Champions League a season ago, they may not make it again.

4. Arsenal

I'm an unabashed Spurs supporter, and still laugh at pretty much everything Arsenal has done in the last four or five years as their North London neighbors basically lapped them. But this summer, they did put their money where their mouth is and made some good additions. Nicolas Pepe has a chance to be a star forward and combine well with Aubamayeng, Lacazette and perhaps even Mesut Ozil. Dani Ceballos isn't an Aaron Ramsey replacement, but he's going to help fill the void. Torreira and Guendouzi is a wonderful midfield duo for Unai Emery to build around. But that defense is still an absolute mess, particularly at centerback. David Luiz still looks and defends like Sideshow Bob, and who else is going to help him out? At least with Bellerin and Kieran Tierney, they have the fullbacks to cover up some of those ills.

But after what happened at the end of last year with the collapse in league form and the second half in Baku, questions still must be asked. But with United and Chelsea in various states of transition and disarray, the Champions League beckons because at least Stan Kroenke put his money where his mouth is... that is if he ever talked publicly.

3. Spurs

Last year for Spurs was a season of miracles coming together to create magic when it looked like inertia was going to hit the blue half of North London. The stadium didn't open until April, they made no new signings and injuries ravaged just about everyone. Mauricio Pochettino took a team put together with spit and duck tape, got them safely in the top four and they made the Champions League Final. It was an insane ride.

And after an 18 month wait for new signings, the incoming names were major. Tanguy Ndombele is a midfield star in the making, and he already performed on the big stage with Lyon, so slotting in next to Moussa Sissoko or Harry Winks could create a dominant central midfield which Spurs have used so spectacularly in the past. Giovani Lo Celso could be a Christian Eriksen running mate or replacement, and he has all the tools to be one of the best young attacking midfielders in Europe. Ryan Sessesgnon is a young player with promise that Spurs under Pochettino have turned into gold.

So why can't they challenge for a Premier League title? They still lack depth behind Harry Kane, their defense is not spectacular, especially at right back, and that run last year took a lot out of them. While they don't have to worry about the concerns of an entire squad coming in late for the season because of World Cup excursions, it still feels like they're not totally right until the frontrunners are well out of the blocks already. But with the new signings, and the new stadium, it feels like Spurs are finally on solid footing. Maybe this year, it finally leads to a trophy.

2. Manchester City

What City did last year domestically was absolutely insane. They almost never put a foot wrong, and as Pep often does, he recreates his tactics and takes everyone by surprise every time he does. They had a real sparring partner last year in Liverpool and still outlasted them. Getting good work out of Oleksandr Zinchenko and Phil Foden certainly helps, and if they take another step, then that could be it for everyone else. Rodri is also going to be a star. But there are worries. David Silva and Sergio Aguero can't keep this up forever, can they? Leroy Sane's ACL injury is a major concern too. And will they put more resources in the Champions League to finally win it after so many close calls? A triple Premier League winner would be fitting for Pep, but considering their big rival from last year has everything but a domestic crown now, and considering that the allure of Europe is still super strong, perhaps it means there's a swap at the top coming.

1. Liverpool

Liverpool did everything right last year, and still didn't win the Premier League. But once they got a little fortune in Europe, they hoisted another European crown. For this new campaign, they bring back basically everyone, but very little has changed. That's not a bad thing for a team that last year was better than everyone except City, but a little freshening up in some key areas, like up front, may have helped add a new dimension to a team that was already frightening. Perhaps a step up for Naby Keita could be just that.

Having won in Europe, but being denied in England could be an interesting motivator this campaign. Do Liverpool go all out in the league, leaving a little in Europe, to win the one trophy they haven't won? It seems like it's destiny for them to complete that mission, and even after a rough preseason, it seems like that may be the aim. If Liverpool win the league, and City win the Champions League, it would feel fitting. Maybe most fitting would be if those two played in the Champions League final too.

So these are my Premier League predictions, sure to fail as they always tend to. But it's good to have the world's biggest sporting circus back, we all kinda missed it.

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The @footballergay hoax, and what's next in helping athletes come out

On July 5, a Twitter account came into life. It was called "the Gay Footballer". On that day, its first tweet said that the owner of the account was a player in the EFL Championship, England's second tier soccer league who had come out to his family, was under 23 and was getting ready to tell the world his story. For 19 days, the account picked up nearly 50,000 followers while tweeting play-by-play of the process of meeting high ranking club officials to carefully plan the next steps. All seemed positive. On July 21, the account tweeted the date July 24, 2019 with a rainbow flag emoji, signifying that would be the day when the player would reveal who he was. But on July 23, after cryptically deleting more than 60 tweets and unfollowing the nearly 1,500 accounts it had followed, the account was deleted after sending tweets saying the player "wasn't strong enough" and couldn't come out while furiously denying that this whole episode was a hoax.

It's clear that this account was a well constructed, incredibly insidious and evil hoax. I wanted to believe it was real even though my first thoughts when seeing the account pop up were, "that's odd." Most high level celebrities and athletes when they come out have not narrated their climbing of that mountain through anonymous social media accounts. All of the hard work happens behind the scenes, with little indication that an announcement is coming publicly until it happens. When Collin Martin, Robbie Rogers and Jason Collins came out publicly, the announcements in many ways came out of nowhere. Knowing that made the circumstances regarding this account questionable, but as time passed, I began to believe that it was real, not because of anything it was saying, but because creating a hoax like this would be a gigantic risk to whoever constructed it. The English tabloids, though they didn't cover this story as intensely as you think they would when it first emerged, would be all over trying to figure out who was behind the account and exposing them if it wasn't real. For the person who constructed the lie, they'd be putting themselves in hot water knowing they'd have to put even more work into the cover up than the account itself.

Since the account is now gone and no one publicly came out, the skepticism turned out to be correct. Instead of focusing on who concocted the lies and why they did it, it's time to focus on why in 2019, there are so few high level male athletes that are out worldwide and how we can help change that.

Part of the amazing story of the US Women's National Team winning the World Cup the way they did was how openly queer they were. Megan Rapinoe especially made no bones about her sexuality and embracing it, which along with the five other out players on that team, made a statement that has not been made in sports like that before.



But while their unabashed queerness is trendsetting and groundbreaking, it's not entirely analogous to the situation with the now deleted twitter account. There's an insidious expectation that high level female athletes are automatically gay because high level athletics is "manly", and queer women are expected to try to act like men. That isn't why there are scores more openly queer female athletes than male, far from it. But watching Kelly O'Hara, who wasn't previously out publicly, walk up to her girlfriend in the stands in Lyon after winning the World Cup and kiss her, you understand just how different the playing field is for out female athletes and out male athletes, and just how different the expectations and stereotypes are.

Sports are supposed to be "manly", "tough", and a host of other synonyms for those two words, and gay men are decidedly not that, according to popular, deep-rooted and factually incorrect stereotypes. Being "feminine", as gay man are assumed to be is not possible in sports because you need to be a "man" to deal with the raw physicality, toughness and other stereotypes that dominate the perception of sports to this day. None of that is anywhere near close to true obviously, but those regressive ideas are still stuck in too many corners of the male sports world, which is why you get stories about how overwhelming majorities of teenage queer athletes are not out and feel afraid to be, and a not insignificant number feel unsafe in locker rooms. That culture translates to the language used, which includes a number of demeaning slurs including calling people girls for not being "tough" and of course, the British slang term for a cigarette I won't use here.

The irony is that most athletes who use this language aren't homophobic, far from it. Mostly, they're saying it because they think it's either funny, or that it's "normal", because no one has ever told them said language is neither of those things. Most would be perfectly fine with a gay teammate, but don't realize the impact their language has on closeted individuals.

"The use of this language also appears to be motivated by a desire for social acceptance", researchers at Monsah University in Australia said in their study on the issue, "rather than overt homophobia or sexism and players had misconceptions around how others on their team view this language, and also around how this language use would create an unwelcoming environment for LGB people and women."

Those words make people not only feel like they don't belong, but they are lesser than, and that is not an environment conducive for success. These closeted athletes then more than likely leave before ever reaching a high level, and those that end up breaking through are still deeply closeted when they do succeed. And once those kids, who have been raised in a conforming, non-questioning culture end up staying in it as coaches to teach a new generation, the cycle repeats itself. Only now has the cycle started to break with a higher interest in addressing this problem, but this is still a major problem all across male sports, particularly male team sports.

That culture still exists in many ways even at the highest levels of all sports, certainly still in English soccer. And while the leagues are starting to realize what they have to do in order to foster culture that allows queer athletes to feel open to be themeselves, let alone feel safe in these spaces, there is a long way to go. When Collin Martin, Robbie Rogers, Jason Collins among others came out, they rose above the fray because they were uniquely situation to overcome the challenges that an openly gay male athlete still faces, but they still vividly documented the difficulties they had in accepting themselves in that space to get to that point. They are certainly not alone.

It's extremely unlikely that there are zero other high level gay professional soccer players playing right now across the globe; it is statistically impossible. It's also highly unlikely that in the four major leagues in this country, there are zero gay athletes in those locker rooms too. There are perhaps hundreds of untold stories past and present waiting to be told, but these people never received the direct or indirect support to tell them. They never felt anywhere near safe enough to do so.

Put all of this into a blender, and you can see why so many were hopeful that @footballergay was real, and not what it turned out to be. Sports seems to be the final frontier for the queer community, particularly queer men, and that finish line is getting ever closer, but still so far away. As societal attitudes change, someone soon is going to come out. They will not be anonymously tweeting the play-by-play of their behind the scenes process; they will come out much like how Rogers, Martin, Collins and others did. How can we help them do so, so that they feel comfortable being themselves by default?

If you hear homophobic language and slurs, tell those people not just to stop saying them, but why they hurt and what you can say otherwise. While you'll inevitably get some resistance, the large majority of people don't know what damage those words can do, and don't want to hurt anyone. Newly out Australian soccer player Andy Brennan recently told a story about how he did that during a game and how the reaction was of shock and regret from that player about his words, not resistance and anger.

Progress here is not linear. We are thankfully light years ahead of when Graeme Le Saux was rumored to be gay because he read the Guardian and wasn't interested in the typical lifestyle of a high level English soccer player, and where hockey coaches would call places on the ice where you shouldn't pass the puck "queer street", but not far enough ahead for episodes like this one to be a fear, not a reality. Someone, somewhere, is preparing to come out, and they need support not just from their own circle, but beyond to feel safe in doing so.

The fevered interest in @footballergay and it's story, and the largely positive support it got when people believed it was real shows that at the very least, something here has changed for the better.

"It is a not a personal desire to be perceived as a pioneer of any kind," the account wrote early on. "My hope is simply to be able to pursue the career and dream I've had since childhood, while simultaneously being permitted to be myself". Obviously, the person behind that account had no desire to do any of that, but people who have come out did that and those who will follow will want to do that too. They need the chance to do so, and it's incumbent on all of us, even those who already came out to make that possible.

We can all be angry at this particularly false dawn, but know that there is hope in that disappointment. Hopefully it isn't just people like me who have a vested interest in these stories who are angry and hurt. But that anger can be channeled into doing actual good for people who desperately need it so when they feel it's time to tell the world their truth, they can do so confidently, safely and freely.

For the heartbroken and closeted young soccer player who desperately wanted this to be real, there needs to be hope that one day a story like this will be. We all, queer or not, have a responsibility to help make that a reality. Hopefully after this sad episode, the lessons learned will make it easier for someone to feel free and safe to tell their truth, and be celebrated for doing so.

It's more than past due.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

2019 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions + a look back at Regular Season Predictions that went wrong

In another installment of this blog's "cheap content" machine, here we'll look back on my regular season predictions for the last NHL season that went terribly, while also giving out my sure to be wrong predictions for the playoffs. Some content is better than none.

Division Winners (predicted): PIT, TB, NSH, SJ
Division Winners (actual): WSH, TB, NSH, CGY

Not too bad. Pittsburgh finished third in the Metro and San Jose finished second in the Pacific, and would have won the division if Martin Jones could have stopped a beach ball.

East Playoff Teams (predicted): TB, TOR, BOS, FLA, PIT, WSH, PHI, CBJ
East Playoff Teams (actual): TB, BOS, TOR, CBJ, WSH, NYI, PIT, CAR

Overrating the Panthers and Flyers might be a sad new trend I've started that I will be sure to end in October. Both teams should have been far better than they were, but a gross combination of bad coaching and bad goaltending sunk them. I had Carolina as team nine in the East, and they ended up being team seven, and I thought the Islanders would be one step removed from the Senators in the East's basement, and they had the fifth best record. Barry Trotz is a wizard.

West Playoff Teams (predicted): NSH, WPG, STL, DAL, SJ, VGK, LA, CGY
West Playoff Teams (actual): NSH, WPG, STL, DAL, CGY, SJ, VGK, COL

Those LA Kings..., I deserve no credit for predicting the Central as it happened because it didn't sort itself out until the last day of the season, and I looked pretty dumb in January when the Blues were terrible. No one saw the Flames being this good, although I did have them sneaking into the postseason.

Awards (prediction then comments):
Hart: Connor McDavid (he could win it every year, but Nikita Kucherov is running away with this)
Art Ross: McDavid (again, Kuch ran away with this)
Rocket Richard: Patrik Laine (he has goalless streaks that make your mind go numb. Also Ovi is immortal).
Norris: Erik Karlsson (spent too much time injured, although over a full season he would have been in the race. Mark Giordano has won this)
Calder: Andrei Svechnikov (good, but not great season. Elias Pettersson has it locked up)
Jack Adams: Jim Montgomery (he did a good job, but not "best NHL team in a quarter century" or "reviving the Islanders from the scrap heap" good.)
First Coach Fired: Todd McLellan (4th of 4 fired in November. Congrats to John Stevens!)

Preseason Conference and Stanley Cup Finals Picks:
TB/PIT, SJ/NSH, TB/SJ.

All could happen, but they don't look as likely now.

Postseason Predictions:

East:
TB over CBJ in 5
BOS over TOR in 7
WSH over CAR in 6
PIT over NYI in 6

TB over BOS in 6
WSH over PIT in 7

TB over WSH in 6

West:
NSH over DAL in 7
STL over WPG in 6
CGY over COL in 5
VGK over SJ in 7

STL over NSH in 6
VGK over CGY in 6

VGK over STL in 6

2019 Stanley Cup Final:
TB over VGK in 6

Conn Smythe: Nikita Kucherov

Pretty chalky. Enjoy the playoffs!