Wednesday, November 29, 2017

2017 Week 13 Fantasy Advice: Mea Culpa

So you may have noticed last week there was no fantasy column (for those of you that even care to click on this blog anymore). That was not some grand editorial statement about the NFL and its problems, it was just me getting lost in the Thanksgiving shuffle. And I paid dearly for the mistake... take a wild guess as to how. Anyway, the past is the past. And because this week is the start of the fantasy football playoffs for some of you, or perhaps the last week of the regular season for the rest, we're going with extra help this week. Extra recommendations as to who to start and sit, and a little more than you normally get here are on the way. Not just because last week I had the brainfart of all brainfarts, but I feel I owe you as December has come and the business end of the fantasy season has too.

Start of the Week: QB Philip Rivers (LAC) vs. CLE

He showed on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys that he's still got it, and now that he and his team have found their stride, there isn't much stopping them. Certainly, it won't be the Browns defense that does that, even though their defense has played a little bit better of late.

Who to Start:

QB Kirk Cousins (WSH) at DAL THU: Lost in how lost the Cowboys offense looks without Zeke Elliot is how lost the defense has looked all season, especially now that their main offensive gameplan has gone out the window. Even though Cousins struggled in the first meeting between the two in the slop, this game is indoors, and Cousins has been good against Dallas in the past.

QB Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs. NE: Why the hell did Sean McDermott bench him, again? No one in the world has any clue, and it would be particularly like the Bills for that Chargers game to cost them a playoff spot. Regardless, the game against the Pats is favorable for Taylor even though New England's defense has rounded into form. If you need a streamer this week, he may be a great option.

RB Jamaal Williams (GB) vs. TB: Even though every single Packers running back is hurt, it's hard to not start the last one left standing this weekend against the Bucs. He'll get plenty of volume in terms of snaps and touches, and the Bucs were gashed last week by Tevin Coleman. In the "Bay of Pigs", expect Williams to sail through with good fantasy numbers.

RB Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. SF: He was on the wrong end of a lopsided score when the Bears got levelled by the Eagles. But don't fear. The 49ers are not the Eagles, and therefore Howard should be able to establish himself on the ground. He has been a bit feast or famine fantasy-wise, but this should be a feast week.

WR Robby Anderson (NYJ) vs. KC: He's come out of nowhere to be an incredibly viable WR2 in most leagues because of his big play ability, but he's also getting plenty of short yardage catches too. Kansas City's defense has fallen off a cliff, so Anderson is a must start this weekend.

WR Cooper Kupp (LAR) at ARZ: Starting him should be pretty obvious at this point, as he's lest matchup dependant than ever, especially after a monster performance against New Orleans. Arizona's defense played well last week, but the Rams offense is another level compared to Blake Bortles.

WR Devin Funchess (CAR) at NO: Who said the Panthers made a bad move in trading Kelvin Benjamin? OK, I did, but that doesn't change the fact that Funchess since that move has been awesome in fantasy land. New Orleans' secondary is ravaged by injury, so Funchess could have another monster outing.

TE Julius Thomas (MIA) vs. DEN: It's not really a "revenge game" at this point in Thomas' career, a few years removed from Denver, but he is playing a lot better of late as Matt Moore has turned to him as a safety blanket. The Broncos have also struggled to defend tight ends this season, so this is a promising matchup for Thomas.

TE Jared Cook (OAK) vs. NYG: The Giants are laughably bad at almost everything, but especially defending opposing tight ends. Cook hasn't done much of late, but this should be the week where that changes.

DEF Tennessee vs. HOU: This defense hasn't been very flashy, but has been incredibly solid of late. That doesn't necessarily bode well in fantasy land, but this week it could against Tom Savage and the turnover happy Texans.

DEF LA Rams at ARZ: Arizona's offense looked remarkably solid last week, but consider the revenge game factor and then some of what has occurred doesn't look so surprising. This week, the Rams defense is a much more formidable test.

Sit of the Week: QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at CIN MON

Ben's performance against the banged up Packers at home left a lot to be desired, and now he has to head out on the road where he does not play well. The Bengals also tend to hold him in check in the Queen City, so he's not someone to risk starting Monday night.

Who to Sit:

QB Matthew Stafford (DET) at BAL: How serious his ankle injury is or not, this is not a good matchup for Stafford and the Lions. Baltimore's defense is seriously underrated even though they haven't beaten anyone good, so Stafford's penchant for making a few mistakes could cost him here.

QB Alex Smith (KC) at NYJ: It's not as if the Jets defense is that amazing to be fair, but Alex Smith has been downright awful the last four weeks, which makes him someone to avoid starting in fantasy everywhere this week. Until he proves that he's back on target, you can't assume that he is.

All Eagles running backs at SEA: Each and every one of them. Running back by committee is a fantasy player's worst nightmare, and the Eagles are firmly in running back by committee territory. So for owners of Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement et al, don't bother.

RB Jerick McKinnon (MIN) at ATL: It seems that Latavius Murray is taking over more of the snaps in the Minnesota backfield of late, which is not a good sign at all. Because of this, even against a less than impressive Atlanta defense, avoid starting McKinnon this week. He's a flex play at best.

WR Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) at MIA: He's had one notable fantasy performance this season and that's it. Considering the Broncos QB situation is a tire fire, it's hard to start any Bronco on offense this week, even against the Dolphins, and Sanders falls into that category.

WR Martavis Bryant (PIT) at CIN MON: He had a wonderful performance against Green Bay, but that was against a weakened defense and without JuJu Smith-Schuster stealing targets from him. The Bengals defense isn't any slouch either, so Bryant may be someone to avoid on Monday.

WR DeVante Parker (MIA) vs. DEN: He was pegged to be a breakout fantasy star this season, and that hasn't quite panned out the way that everyone hoped. Against a still stout Denver secondary, and with Matt Moore as the signal caller, there's not a lot of hope here for fantasy owners.

TE Cameron Brate (TB) at GB: He's losing targets to OJ Howard rapidly, and his snaps are decreasing as well. This is not a good combination, especially with a bad matchup against Green Bay on the cards.

TE Tyler Kroft (CIN) vs. PIT MON: As a matchup starter, Kroft has been a really valuable fantasy asset of late, but that has been very matchup dependant. And Pittsburgh's defense, well it's not a good matchup for opposing tight ends.

DEF Buffalo vs. NE: You'd know better at this point to start any defense against Tom Brady and company, but you may be tempted after what Buffalo did last week. You shouldn't be.

DEF Carolina at NO: Playing the Jets and the Saints are entirely different propositions from a fantasy perspective, and that is certainly the case when considering the Panthers defense. It's not as if they're a terrible option, but they're not a great one either.

4 Super Sleepers:

QB Brett Hundley (GB) vs. TB: You know what, he played a lot better last Sunday in Pittsburgh than many of us expected him too. That's a good sign going against the porous Tampa Bay defense, which has been way worse than expected. If you need a streamer and are desperate, Hundley isn't a terrible option.

RB Orleans Darkwa (NYG) at OAK: We're plumbing the depths at this point, but with Geno Smith at QB, Giants running backs suddenly become an OK fantasy option. It's not exactly something I entirely recommend, but it's not a terrible option if you're desperate either.

WR Corey Davis (TEN) vs. HOU: Tennessee's offense has been brutal from a fantasy perspective this season outside of the running backs, but perhaps this is the week they find their feet again. Houston's defense has been very poor of late, so it may be high time for Mariota et al to kick it into gear.

TE Vernon Davis (WSH) at DAL THU: Without Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins has been turning to Vernon Davis more often, and that's a positive sign heading into the Thursday night game in Dallas. Not exactly the best option, but in a pinch, Davis could give you just what you need.

Buyer Beware:

QB Derek Carr (OAK) vs. NYG: Against the hapless Giants, you should be starting every Raider, right? Well not necessarily. The Giants defense has been fairly OK against Kansas City and Washington of late, so it's not exactly a crazy strong matchup for the Raiders and Carr in spite of what you may think.

Good luck in Week 13, and sorry for the brain cramp last week!

Thursday, November 16, 2017

2017 Week 11 Fantasy Advice: Celebrity Brain Crash

The NFL season in which the actual football has taken a back seat is chugging along as we get closer and closer to the fantasy playoffs, and as the bye weeks mercifully end and it doesn't seem like as many injuries to big name players can derail your season (since many of them are already out), is progress going to be made for fantasy happiness? And if you're wondering why the title of this piece is "Celebrity Brain Crash", I just got through watching an episode of The Grand Tour and the title makes as much sense here as it did in that show.

Byes: CAR, NYJ, IND, SF

Start of the Week: QB Alex Smith (KC) at NYG

Alex Smith is an underrated fantasy QB against almost everyone, but against the Giants who, sorry to all Giants fans, have quit, especially on defense, Smith could be in for a huge game on Sunday afternoon.

Who to Start:

QB Drew Brees (NO) vs. WSH: As the Saints are officially a ground and pound team now, you may be wondering why he's a great fantasy starter this week. For one, Washington's defense has been torched by pretty much everyone this season through the air, and it stands to reason that they'll try to sell out and stop the run to force Drew Brees to beat them, which he will then likely do.

RB Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. DET: He's certainly not been the fantasy option many of us expected him to be, and he's been held to single digit points in most everywhere the past few weeks. However, if the Lions gave up a big fantasy day to Isaiah Crowell of the Browns, Howard at least has a shot here.

WR Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs. TB: He's been a solid PPR option all season for his owners in spite of the Dolphins QB malaise, and it seems every now and again he and DeVante Parker pop off for a big game or two. That could come this week against the Bucs and their far worse than expected defense.

WR Sterling Shepard (NYG) vs. KC: Despite the Giants being garbage, Eli Manning has to throw it to someone, and Shepard has been the guy of late. Kansas City's secondary is not as impressive as you might think, and also consider the garbage time potential here: it could be immense!

TE Vernon Davis (WSH) at NO: Amazingly, Davis still has it. Even against brutal matchups on paper, he's chipped in big games against both Seattle and Minnesota. The Saints matchup is similar, but once is accident, twice is a trend, three times...?

DEF LA Chargers vs. BUF: Not only does this Chargers defense get to face a rookie in Nathan Peterman making his first start, on the road, the defense hasn't been why the team has lost this year. They rush the passer well, force turnovers and last week kept Leonard Fournette in check. This is a great matchup this week.

Sit of the Week: WR Jordy Nelson (GB) vs. BAL

He was my "Buyer Beware" last week, and many places had him as a must sit. I wasn't willing to go that far considering his draft position and ability to overcome tough matchups in the past. But now, until proven otherwise, you can't play Nelson with Brett Hundley at QB, even though he's improved recently. Baltimore's defense is also fairly stout.

Who to Sit:

QB Matt Ryan (ATL) at SEA MON: Seattle's defense is dinged up, but it's still the Seahawks at home, and with Matt Ryan's numbers this year underwhelming massively, starting him this week is a big risk, even though with Freeman's injury, he may be relied on more.

RB Lamar Miller (HOU) vs. ARZ: When teams know your QB situation is a mess, they sell out to stotp the run at all costs. Miller has faced that the last two weeks without DeShaun Watson running the offense. It'll happen this week against Arizona, who have a stout defense against the run.

WR Sammy Watkins (LAR) at MIN: Watkins has finally awaken from his fantasy slumber! But he may unfortunately slip back to earlier form this week against Xavier Rhodes and that ferocious Vikings defense. In his other road game against a defense like Minnesota, in Jacksonville, he was invisible.

WR Kelvin Benjamin (BUF) at LAC: Benjamin can't be trusted now that the QB switch in Buffalo has occurred. Until proven otherwise, and against a very solid Chargers defense, it's not a good time to be an owner of Kelvin Benjamin.

TE Coby Fleener (NO) vs. WSH: Fleener has a fantasic matchup on paper this week, but there is one problem: he's not a good blocker, and the Saints are a run first offense. Thanks to Michael Fabiano of NFL Media for this nugget: he's played in only 27% of offensive snaps for New Orleans in the last four games. Avoid.

DEF Dallas vs. PHI: No Sean Lee, and facing Carson Wentz equals a bad combination for the Cowboys defense this week in both reality and for fantasy owners. They weren't exactly bad last week, but from fantasy perspective "not bad" from defenses isn't quite good enough at this time of year.

3 Super Sleepers:

QB Jay Cutler (MIA) vs. TB: It's hard to start Cutler at all, but with a favorable matchup this week, it might be worth the risk. The Bucs defense played well last week against Josh McCown, but has struggled mightily against just about everyone else.

WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) at HOU: He's here and not in the "start" portion of the piece because of the QB uncertainty, but even with that, the Texans defense is a mess, and Fitz should easily pounce on that.

DEF Atlanta at SEA MON: On paper, facing Russell Wilson and the Seahawks at home is not a good matchup. So why have the Falcons defense here? Well, the Seahawks can't run the ball, their offensive line is a mess, and the Falcons defense has to be feeling confident after that show they put on against the Cowboys. There is a chance this is a sneaky good play in spite of the odds this week.

Buyer Beware:

QB Jared Goff (LAR) at MIN: It's impossible to not love the way Goff and the Rams offense has evolved this season, but they haven't been at their best against the best defensives such as Seattle's and Jacksonville's. Minnesota's defense is up there, so starting Goff with that in mind is a risk.

Good luck in Week 11!

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

2017 Week 10 Fantasy Advice: Halfway Done

As we are now beyond the halfway point of the NFL season, and well beyond the halfway point of the fantasy season, you may be wondering to yourself how we got here. Through numerous injuries to critical fantasy players, a generally mediocre standard of play and jumping through fantasy hula hoops, we're here now. We're still dealing with the last few bye weeks, but more notably the injuries and the bad play, but don't worry now, it's kinda almost done... sort of.

Byes: PHI, OAK, KC, BAL

Start of the Week: RB Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. GB

You probably drafted him very highly, and have been conflicted with mixed feelings on him all year. It's been week-to-week with Howard, but this week is looking up against a Packers team that has been defensively quite weak away from home. The Bears offense is centered on Howard and what he can do, but this may be the week he finally gets back into form.

Who to Start:

QB Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. CLE: "Anyone against the Browns" becomes the name of the game here, as Stafford, who hasn't really lit it up all year, might finally find the ways and means to do so against the horrific Browns defense who pretty much can't do anything right.

RB Carlos Hyde (SF) vs. NYG: He was on point for players in a PPR league last week, having his best game of the season. The Giants can't do anything right at this point other than showing up at the stadium on time, meaning Hyde might put together back-to-back dynamic performances.

WR Adam Thielen (MIN) at WSH: With injuries elsewhere on the offense, Thielen has stepped up to become a true PPR machine. But even in standard leagues, his game at Washington is favorable. Slot receivers do fairly well against DC, and it stands to reason form holds again here.

WR Robby Anderson (NYJ) at TB: Yep, a Jets wideout is a good fantasy play this week. Who would have ever imagined that in August? Anderson has been playing the best of all Jets receivers of late, and his game in Tampa against the poorer than expected Bucs defense is very favorable.

TE Hunter Henry (LAC) at JAX: The Jaguars have the league's most fearsome pass defense, which means they'd also shut down tight ends too, right? Not quite. Tyler Kroft had a decent game last week even with only a few targets, and Henry could perform similarly on Sunday.

DEF LA Rams vs. HOU: Tom Savage ain't DeShaun Watson, that's for sure.

Sit of the Week: RB Ameer Abdullah (DET) vs. CLE

For everything the Browns do wrong, they are very good at stopping the run, and that has been true all season. Abdullah could have had a huge game Monday night against Green Bay, but fumble-itis wrecked those chances, and he could still be in the doghouse come Sunday. Matchup and form do not favor the Lions RB here.

Who to Sit:

QB Kirk Cousins (WSH) vs. MIN: Despite his heroics last week against Seattle, he and the Washington offense still struggled mightily down almost all of their bullets. Minnesota's defense may be even better, meaning Cousins is pretty much a must sit this week.

RB Aaron Jones (GB) at CHI: The dreaded split backfield has appeared in Green Bay, with Jones and Montgomery exchanging touches with no good way to know who will get more week-to-week. The Bears aren't very good, but their defense has been strong at home It's hard to recommend Jones or Montgomery this week.

WR Kelvin Benjamin (BUF) vs. NO: He will make his Bills debut against the Saints, which means he'll be Tyrod Taylor's number one target. That's good. However, in his five career games against New Orleans, he's averaged 38 yards per game and only reeled in one TD. And that was against a historically bad Saints defense.

WR Will Fuller (HOU) at LAR: It was a fun few weeks when DeShaun Watson was the QB for the Texans for the NFL world and for Will Fuller. But with Tom Savage, let's just say no one is enjoying life nearly as much. And the Rams defense is infinitely better than that of the Colts, so Fuller's fortunes are going downhill, fast.

TE Julius Thomas (MIA) at CAR MON: Don't go fantasy chasing, my friends. Thomas had a great game against the Raiders, but his performance in the prior four games combined didn't match what he did against the Raiders, so expecting a repeat of that performance let's just say is unlikely.

DEF Denver vs. NE: Is the shine off the Broncos defense? Perhaps. They have too much to do now to carry that incredibly poor offense, and that doesn't bode well against the Patriots Sunday night. It's hard to sit them, but it may be high time to consider it.

3 Super Sleepers:

QB Eli Manning (NYG) at SF: I know, I know. But we're talking strictly matchups here, and let's be honest, the 49ers are not very good at playing football. You'd have to be really digging deep to start Eli here, but it's not the worst option out there this week.

RB Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. CIN: With DeMarco Murray nursing a knee injury, Henry becomes more viable as a fantasy option. The Bengals rush defense didn't do a great job stopping backups against the Jaguars last week, so Henry could be in for a big day on Sunday as well.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) at IND: As he celebrates finally getting his driver's license, he should show it on the field by potentially putting in a great performance against the Colts. He's clearly the second WR on the Steeler depth chart now, and that's positive for him against the Colts who aren't really the greatest at playing defense.

Buyer Beware:

WR Jordy Nelson (GB) at CHI: You can't really sit him at this point because of the draft capital you invested, but with Brett Hundley moving the offense along at a snail's pace, there's not much else left to say. The Bears defense is also stingy at home, and this is not a good combination.

Good luck in Week 10!

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

2017 Week 9 Fantasy Advice: Halfway done already?

Halfway through an NFL season of brutal injuries, some intriguing trades and more than a few surprises and your fantasy team probably doesn't look all that much like what it did when you drafted it in the summer. That's not surprising, but it does offer questions about the rest of this season, and time is running out to make meaningful changes to your roster and make the decisions that will push your team over the top. So what happens now as the calendar turns to November?

Byes: PIT, MIN, CHI, CLE, NE, LAC

Start of the Week: Lamar Miller (HOU) vs. IND

Seattle's rushing defense is good enough to stop just about everybody in the league from being successful, but the same can't be said for the Colts defense. Miller, who has feasted on the Colts in his career, likely will do the same against a defense that gave up a big game to Joe Mixon last week.

Who to Start:

QB Drew Brees (NO) vs. TB: His fantasy numbers haven't exactly lit up your screens like you'd expect Drew Brees to do in the last couple of games, but against the Bucs defense which is nowhere near where anyone expected it to be, that could change, and probably will change.

RB Aaron Jones (GB) vs. DET MON: In the ever changing environment of Green Bay's offense without Aaron Rodgers, another Aaron, Aaron Jones, impressed against the Saints two weeks ago. The Lions aren't exactly a stout rush defense, so the fear of him splitting touches with Ty Montgomery isn't exactly too worrisome.

WR Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. KC: He couldn't get out of Josh Norman's shadow last week, which was salso somewhat weather induced, but this week he should get out of that shadow against the Chiefs. The Cowboys may need to rely on the arm of Dak Prescott without Ezekiel Elliot, and Bryant should feature prominently against a weak Chiefs secondary.

WR Devin Funchess (CAR) vs. ATL: Cam Newton will have throw to someone after Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to Buffalo, and Funchess seems to be that target. Atlanta's secondary has been really underwhelming this season, and if you need a bye week option, Funchess could be a really good one. He may even be on the waiver wire in some leagues.

TE Jack Doyle (IND) at HOU: He's a really good fantasy matchup, what can I say? In a position where there is little depth, starting Doyle is almost a must, especially in six team bye weeks. Houston's defense is weak and was torched by Jimmy Graham last week, so Doyle could have another positive game.

DEF LA Rams at NYG: The Rams have one of the better fantasy defenses and real defenses, so even travelling cross-country, they're a must start against the Giants who can't put any together on offense with or without most of their receivers.

Sit of the Week: RB Marshawn Lynch (OAK) at MIA

Here's another player who I said certainly wasn't worth it in fantasy, and he's been really poor in his last few games, missing almost the entire game against KC included. Miami's defense has been fairly stout against the run, Thursday against the Ravens excluded, so Lynch is someone to avoid this week.

Who to Sit:

QB Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs. BAL: Though he should be more healed from his hamstring injury than he was against Indianapolis or Cleveland, this matchup against the Ravens defense is not favorable at all. They've been stout against opposing QB's all season, which means healthy or not, Mariota is a big risk this weekend.

RB Alex Collints (BAL) at TEN: He had a great outing last Thursday against Miami, but starting him doesn't make a ton of sense against the Titans. They're stout at home defensively, and the Ravens backfield is heavily rotated, and keep in mind, Danny Woodhead could be returning soon.

WR T.Y Hilton (IND) at HOU: He's posted basically all of his fantasy points in home games against the 49ers and Browns, who, if I remember correctly, have a combined zero wins. Even though the Texans defense is not very good, it's hard to trust Hilton until he consistently proves that he can get back to old form again.

WR Pierre Garcon (SF) vs. ARZ: It was a rough day for him against the Eagles, and things may not get much better against the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson. And there's no Jimmy G throwing to him, at least not yet.

TE Martellus Bennett (GB) vs. DET MON: He says this will be his last NFL season, and unfortunately for people who put fantasy stock in him, he's playing like it. It's been a rough season for him, with or without Aaron Rodgers, and that doesn't bode well even against the Lions.

DEF Denver at PHI: The Broncos defense is still dominant and dynamic, however with the pressure their offense puts them under, it makes for long days at the office, and that probably continues against the reloaded Eagles offense.

3 Super Sleepers:

QB Jared Goff (LAR) at NYG: The Giants defense, especially in the secondary, is nothing to sneeze at. But at some point with the lack of offense they have, they'll break down, and that will allow Goff to find some success. He's not the best option this week, but he does have a good chance to succeed.

RB Kenyan Drake (MIA) vs. OAK: Who will get the ball in the backfield with Jay Ajayi now in Philadelphia? That seems to be Drake, and while he might be best as a flex play this week, he has a promising matchup against Oakland to potentially exploit. He could be a decent stash and grab, since the Dolphins will need someone to run the ball.

WR Will Fuller (HOU) vs. IND: Not exactly a volume receiver, but he does put up huge numbers each and every week it seems, and that's hard to ignore and avoid. The Colts really can't do much right now in terms of defense, so Fuller, who has exploded onto the scene when DeShaun Watson took over, is another decent play this week.

Buyer Beware:

QB Derek Carr (OAK) at MIA: He put up bigger stat lines than you would have thought in the last couple of games, but it hasn't really changed his fantasy viability, which is to say there isn't much. He's not really a good matchup play even in a week when there are six byes.

Good luck in Week 9!