Friday, October 25, 2019

The Human Element, or lack thereof

What drives progress? An insatiable determination to push boundaries, defy expectations and create something new, or making something existing better. Human beings are hard wired to do this; if not, we'd still be living in caves in Africa. We've always asked about what's in the next valley, what's over that ridge, and that is part of how we as a species have gone to the top of the food chain.

Our hunger to explore, push forward and cross boundaries is what has made us successful. That innate desire is manifested into different forms in the 21st century world, and in a sports context, that can be seen in explosion of analytics and new thinking into roster construction and evaluation. Perhaps no team has embodied that more than the Houston Astros, who went all in on analytics, new thinking, innovation and an "us against the world" mentality like no other. It has taken them from doormat to World Series champion and one of the best teams in the sport. But that has come with a cost.

Not only have they made enemies in the sport thanks to their approach and their attitude concerning it, but also because in that culture, they seem to lack something critical: empathy. The actions of their AGM Brandon Taubman, the subsequent defending of his actions and the sudden reversal of their stance only three days later by firing him unceremoniously on a World Series off day, has brought to light not just questions about the Astros culture, but the culture of modern sports and beyond: have we lost the human element?

There was no doubt that Taubman's actions, and subsequent lying about them, merited his firing. But, even in his guilt, he was enabled by those above him who will skate on, with nary a consequence other than some egg in their face. They created an environment in which concerns about the human condition are secondary at best. Trading for Roberto Osuna in the first place, in the middle of a 75 game suspension for domestic violence, was a mistake but one that in the Astros culture was never perceived as one. Osuna was an asset that the Astros could buy low on and use in their ultimate pursuit: winning. Whatever the costs were in this acquisition, they were viewed solely from a transactional context, not a human one. If he could get a few strikeouts and help Houston win, no one would remember, or bring up, that he may have committed a felonious offense.

If anyone brought up that the Astros were, as an organization, incapable of understanding human beings as human beings rather than just assets, or pawns on a chess board, they'd symbolically point to the rings and banners at Minute Maid Park as a defense. What does it matter that we're not "people person(s)" if we're winning? As it turned out, such a culture breeds contempt, defensiveness and a stunning lack of empathy, all borne out not just in Brandon Taubman's callous comments towards a group of female reporters, but the organization's even more callous and shallow response. The Astros were in this together, in this foxhole, fighting against the rest of baseball. More often not, they won. Except here, they were catastrophically defeated.

Tim Kurkjian has been talking about baseball's lack of feel for people in recent years as the league has gone more knee deep in numbers, information and innovation. For all of the transactions, numbers and information, baseball is still one human being with a bat in his hand at a time against nine other human beings trying to hit a ball, with the key there being human beings. As much as viewing sports from a transactional, asset management perspective has invigorated discussion about these sports, they have sucked away too much of what makes sports so unique in the human experience: human beings and their stories. With Taubman, Luhnow and Crane, there was never a concern about other human beings and their reaction to acquiring Roberto Osuna, and then using him as a shield to defend the organization from their own self-inflicted wounds. The only concerns were winning, but not just that, winning in their way.

Sports teams exist to win, of course. Some do find a way to re-invent the wheel and win "their way". But at what point does that mindset cost too much from a human perspective? At what point can the human cost no longer be ignored? When do people become empowered in this or any other sport not for their intellect, scouting acumen or innovative ideas, but for their empathy? Their understanding of someone else and ability to make them feel comfortable, to be their best selves? And as baseball has to deal with the fallout from the Tyler Skaggs situation with the Angels, a situation very different yet eerily similar to the one in Houston, one has to wonder whether that empathy that made this sport, and so many sports so inter-connected with our culture, our identity and our psyche, is where it needs to be,

One Astros player said this week, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan, "forget about the a-holes in the front office. This is about us". There may be no quote more apt in vividly describing this situation, and so many others in sports, than that. For all of the information, the knowledge, innovation and ideas percolating in player acquisition and evaluation brought over from business, science and elsewhere, sports are still human beings playing games.

Too often, we forget that. And when we do forget that, do we have the ability to see situations like the one Houston coming? And if we do, do we have the tools to prevent them from happening again?

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Reviewing my 2019 MLS Predictions and attempting to predict the playoffs

If you have noticed, my picks and predictions in recent times have been pretty terrible in all leagues. MLS is no different. Looking back at these predictions makes me want to cry, which is why I'm happy I put the disclaimer "here are some predictions that are sure to be wrong in May, let alone October". They were!

East Playoff Teams (My Predictions): ATL, NYRB, DC, PHI, CLB, MTL, NYCFC
East Playoff Teams (Actual): NYCFC, ATL, PHI, TOR, DC, NYRB, NE

Toronto and New England get in over Columbus and Montreal. Not as bad as it could have been.

West Playoff Teams (My Predictions): SKC, LAFC, POR, SEA, LAG, RSL, MIN
West Playoff Teams (Actual): LAFC, SEA, RSL, MIN, LAG, POR, FCD

So only one team wrong, but it was the one I predicted to win the Supporter's Shield. That was #CCLFever. But the other playoff teams, including the Loons, I actually got right. I'm mildly proud of myself.

Award Predictions: 
MVP: Zlatan (he played really well! But Carlos Vela had a historically good season)
Coach: Jim Curtin (he could certainly win it. But how can it not be Bob Bradley?)
Defender: Walker Zimmerman (he would have won it if the season was 20 games long. Ike Opara did).
Rookie: Andre Shinyashiki (I got one right!)
Golden Boot: Zlatan (Carlos Vela did set the single season goal scoring record)
Comeback: Jordan Morris (more than likely)

I did predict Sporting Kansas City to beat the Red Bulls in MLS Cup 2019, which was extremely wrong and the playoffs haven't even happened yet. So here I am trying again, and sure to get it wrong:

East:
2) Atlanta United over 7) New England
3) Philadelphia over 6) New York Red Bulls
4) Toronto FC over 5) DC United

4) Toronto FC over 1) NYCFC
2) Atlanta United over 3) Philadelphia

2) Atlanta United over 4) Toronto FC

West:
2) Seattle over 7) FC Dallas
6) Portland over 3) Real Salt Lake
5) LA Galaxy over 4) Minnesota

2) Seattle over 6) Portland
1) LAFC over 5) LA Galaxy

1) LAFC over 2) Seattle

MLS Cup 2019: LAFC over Atlanta United 3-1

If my playoff predictions in baseball are any indication, good luck to these two teams, especially Atlanta United, who might not be immune to the Atlanta sports curse after all.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

2019-20 NHL Season Predictions

October is the best month of the year if you're one of the few people who still clicks on this blog, because you get prediction columns and reviews of prediction columns. There's no better content than that, right? When you check back in April, be sure to take it easy on me, because I might be less wrong than someone else, I hope.

Metropolitan Division:
1. Washington
2. Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. New York Rangers 
5. New Jersey
6. Philadelphia
7. Columbus
8. New York Islanders

There is no more egalitarian division in hockey than the Metro. Every team thinks they have a good chance at the playoffs, and they're all right. There are plenty of reasons for fatalists to satiate their own fears about each of these teams though. 

Washington probably has the fewest flaws of any in this division. While their playoff voodoo returned even after winning the Cup, they're still a dominant regular season team. Some of the depth pieces have shuffled, but the core remains the same, though one year older. Since there's no one that can truly contend on that level with them, they're favorites. Carolina has made plenty of moves, and while it's unlikely they're replicating last year's playoff run, they're still incredibly deep, especially on the back end. It's hard to see a team this deep missing the postseason. Pittsburgh is on the decline, and whether it's gradual or sudden is still an open question. With Crosby and Malkin, they're still a playoff team, though their supporting cast continues to decline.

Everyone else is fighting for a wild card that will be hotly contested. The Rangers have made some significant upgrades with Kaapo Kakko, Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox, but they're still not great defensively and many of their young prospects haven't developed in the smoothest of ways. New Jersey certainly went for flash in acquiring PK Subban and Nikita Gusev along with drafting Jack Hughes, but are they deep enough to succeed during the long grind of 82 games, and do they have any hope in net? Philadelphia made plenty of moves on the ice and behind the bench, but it all doesn't add up to very much being different. Columbus is down Panarin, Duchene and Bobrovsky, and while they believe in their kids, can anyone believe in their goaltending? And the Islanders added no one except a goalie to replace one that nearly won the Vezina last season and probably should still be there. Is the system truly king?

Atlantic Division:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Florida (WC)
5. Montreal (WC)
6. Buffalo
7. Detroit
8. Ottawa

Unlike the Metro, the Atlantic is relatively straightforward. Last year's top three will be the top three again, there will be two teams fighting for a playoff spot, and everyone else is rebuilding to some degree. The order in which the Atlantic's top three will be slotted is a matter of debate. Tampa is still the class of the league, but will what happened in the series against Columbus hang over their heads? We may not find out until April, but the roster is still fairly loaded in spite of the cap crunch they had this summer, so a big drop off isn't expected. Toronto will score a ton of goals, but they may also give up a ton. Have their moves made them considerably better than the team of the last three years? That is also a matter of debate. They will have enough this year to nudge the Bruins out of home ice in their inevitable playoff series. The Bruins are still the Bruins, which means they'll be a tough out every night.

Florida spent big bucks to end their losing drought, and with the rest of the East taking a slight step back, and the Panthers adding one of the league's best goalies and coaches, that should be enough to plug a leaky ship and guide it back to the postseason, though the Panthers always find a way to underwhelm. Montreal got career years out of multiple forwards last year and it wasn't enough to make the postseason, and many of their hopes will ride on young centers Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki if they are to get back to the postseason. It will not be easy. Buffalo has a new coach with a great pedigree, but they don't have a great blueline or goaltending tandem yet. They're closer than they've been to the postseason, but they're both not there yet. Detroit and Ottawa are both in the nascent stages of long rebuilds, and while the long term is bright, the present is concerned with lottery balls.

Central Division:

1. Nashville
2. Colorado
3. Dallas
4. St. Louis (WC) 
5. Winnipeg
6. Chicago
7. Minnesota

The NHL's toughest division holds its title for another season, because it holds the defending champs and some of the league's toughest regular season outs. Nashville has regressed since it's 2017 trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but adding Matt Duchene should stem the tide a little, and the loss of PK Subban is offset by the arrival of Dante Fabbro. The Avs are a team everyone loves, and for good reason. They have an incredible future with great players for the present and future. They will be one of the fastest and exciting teams this year, but they had fewer wins last year than Arizona, who only had 86 points. To go from that to Cup favorite is not easy. Dallas added a couple of Pacific division veterans to help a defensively sound team go over the top in the postseason after last year's Game 7 heartbreak, and they'll be good enough to certainly test the best.

The defending champs made their first big move by trading for Justin Faulk, giving up a solid defenseman in Joel Edmunson, and a prospect in Dominic Bokk. Faulk is not much better if at all than what they gave up. But they are still the same aggressive forechecking team they were a season ago, and if Jordan Binnington is still the same goaltender from his run last season, they will be more consistent. They're not quite as talented as their rivals, hence why they're a Wild Card team, though they're still a playoff lock. 

Winnipeg's offseason from hell has taken a bite out of what was a team set up to be a juggernaut. If Dustin Byfuglien doesn't return, then their blueline is relying an awful lot on this year's first round pick, Ville Heinola. It looks to be a fatal flaw. While they have plenty of scoring punch, their depth is also incredibly sketchy. They will not make the playoffs without some substantial additions. Chicago scored a boatload of goals last year, and also gave up a boatload. Adding Robin Lehner, Calvin De Haan and Olli Maata might not do enough to counteract all those goals against, though. Minnesota did get rid of their problem GM, but this is still an old team with an old core that is only getting older, with a prospect pipeline that is far from encouraging.

Pacific Division:
1. Vegas
2. Calgary
3. San Jose
4. Arizona (WC)
5. Vancouver
6. Edmonton
7. Anaheim
8. Los Angeles

Watching the Vegas Golden Knights has been an experience in the last two seasons, from their Cup run to how they went out last year. They are, in a weak division, the strongest team, even if their blueline is shallow and Marc-Andre Fleury is being asked to do too much. Calgary, though they traded for Milan Lucic, still have plenty of speed and skill up front with a very good blueline to boot. But can they keep the puck out of the net? It doesn't seem like there's optimism on that front. Speaking of bad goaltending, San Jose had the worst in the league last year and still made it to the Conference Final! They also played with a very broken Erik Karlsson too. But they don't have Joe Pavelski anymore, and their depth from years past is gone. They're still a playoff team, but do they have enough to challenge like they've been able to?

Perhaps this pick is aspirational, but I really want the Coyotes to make the playoffs. I like the moves that they have made, and Rick Tocchet got a broken, injured group to within earshot of the postseason. He is also a Phil Kessel whisperer, and getting him to score is what the Coyotes desperately need. If some of their young talent like Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton and others finally come good, they can get in. Vancouver will challenge them because of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes, but the veterans are what will let them down, because they just don't have enough good ones. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, but little else, and there's very little reason to believe that Ken Holland and Dave Tippett can make lemonade without any lemons to use. Anaheim is finally rebuilding, and some of their young forwards have promise. They also have John Gibson, who could win the Vezina on a better team. But their great defense pipeline is now barren. The Kings went sour gradually, and then suddenly, and now they're in a full rebuild mode again. Alexis Lafrieniere would look good in black and silver.

Playoffs:
Eastern Conference:

Washington (M1) over Florida (WC1) in 7
Carolina (M2) over Pittsburgh (M2) in 5
Tampa (A1) over Montreal (WC2) in 6
Toronto (A2) over Boston (A3) in 7

Carolina (M2) over Washington (M1) in 7
Tampa (A1) over Toronto (A2) in 7

Tampa (A1) over Carolina (M2) in 5

Western Conference:

St. Louis (WC1) over Nashville (C1) in 6
Colorado (C2) over Dallas (C3) in 6
Vegas (P1) over Arizona (WC2) in 5
Calgary (P2) over San Jose (P3) in 6

Colorado (C2) over St. Louis (WC1) in 6
Vegas (P1) over Calgary (P2) in 6

Vegas (P1) over Colorado (C2) in 6

Stanley Cup Final:

Tampa over Vegas in 6

Awards:
Hart: Nathan MacKinnon (COL)
Art Ross: Connor McDavid (EDM)
Rocket Richard: Alex Ovechkin (WSH)
Norris: Victor Hedman (TB)
Vezina: Frederik Andersen (TOR)
Calder: Kaapo Kakko (NYR)
Jack Adams: Rick Tocchet (ARZ)
First Coach Fired: Paul Maurice (WPG)

Happy Hockey Season! I hope I didn't pick one of your favorite teams and favorite players to do well.