Monday, September 30, 2019

2019 MLB Season Predictions in Review + Playoff Predictions

More cheap content for this old blog with the same design it has had for eight plus years, but is the perfect place for said content that doesn't fit anywhere else and is fun to write up. How badly did I do with my 2019 MLB Predictions? Badly, let's say.

Actual standings in parenthesis.

NL East:
1. Philadelphia (ATL)
2. Washington (WSH)
3. Atlanta (NYM)
4. New York Mets (PHI)
5. Miami (MIA)

Atlanta is becoming a quiet juggernaut with a great young lineup and rotation. They've won the NL East for the second straight year and are second favorites to win the NL. Philly didn't have the rotation and bullpen to buoy all the money they spent this offseason, and Gabe Kapler's seat is getting toasty. Washington did end up making the playoffs after their awful start after all.

AL East:
1. New York Yankees (NYY)
2. Boston (TB)
3. Tampa Bay (BOS)
4. Toronto (TOR)
5. Baltimore (BAL)

In spite of the litany of injuries the Yankees endured, they still won 103 games. It truly is a remarkable achievement. Boston's World Series defense went poorly, like most of theirs have since 2004, and Tampa Bay continues to do the absolute most with the least to make the playoffs again. No wonder everyone in the league wants everyone in their front office. The back end of the division was as bad as predicted.

NL Central:
1.  St. Louis (STL)
2.  Chicago Cubs (MIL)
3.  Milwaukee (CHC)
4.  Cincinnati (CIN)
5.  Pittsburgh (PIT)

Saying the Cubs were long in the tooth turned out to be prescient after their September collapse, which allowed the Redbirds to sneak up and win the NL Central while getting Milwaukee back into the postseason minus a potential league MVP in Christian Yelich. Joe Maddon is gone, so the Cubs in many ways are going back to the drawing board. The NL Central was the most equal division this year, and some big runs, positive or negative, drew the lines for the playoffs.

AL Central:
1. Cleveland (MIN)
2. Minnesota (CLE)
3. Chicago White Sox (CHW)
4. Kansas City (KC)
5. Detroit (DET)

Hitting the most home runs in a single season in MLB history helped propel the Twins back to the postseason for the second time in three years, but they have to play the Yankees again. They had a little more consistency everywhere than the Indians, who had the same 93 wins they did a year ago, but last year that was enough to win them the AL Central, and this year they just missed the playoffs with a historically high win total for a team to miss. They would have won the NL Central, for instance. A frugal offseason really did cost them. Everyone else ranged from scuffling to outright tanking and historically bad.

NL West:
1. Los Angeles (LAD)
2. Colorado (ARZ)
3. San Diego (SF)
4. Arizona (SD)
5. San Francisco (COL)

The Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and everyone else is playing catch up. Arizona's rebuild on the fly allowed them to have a positive season with a platform to build on for the future. San Diego and Colorado both underwhelmed in a major way after their preseason expectations, and that cost San Diego manager Andy Green his job. It doesn't look like anyone is challenging the Dodgers any time soon.

AL West:
1. Houston (HOU)
2. LA Angels (OAK)
3. Oakland (TEX)
4. Seattle (LAA)
5. Texas (SEA)

The Astros are still the Astros, and no one gave them much of a run in the AL West again. The A's continue to do quite a bit with not very much and make the playoffs again, but it's going to be tough to see them winning a series if they do make it to play their division rivals. Mike Trout is still being let down by everyone around him, and perhaps Joe Maddon is the solution to that problem. Everyone else is rebuilding to varying degrees, and the order is shuffling deck chairs.

Preseason Playoffs Predictions:
NL: 1. LAD 2. PHI 3. STL 4. WSH 5. CHC
AL: 1. NYY 2. HOU 3. CLE 4. BOS 5. LAA

Actual Playoff Order:
NL: 1. LAD 2. ATL 3. STL 4. WSH 5. MIL
AL: 1. HOU 2. NYY 3. MIN 4. OAK 5. TB

5 out of 10 playoff teams predicted isn't great! When the league is so clearly sorted into teams that are trying and teams that aren't, those predictions feel even worse! But there are only a few teams who really failed to live up to the hype this year, which include Boston, Philly and Colorado.

Preseason Award Predictions (with comments):
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt (Going to be Cody Bellinger, could have been Yelich if he didn't get hurt)
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (Spent too much time injured. Going to be Mike Trout again because he's simply not human)
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Jacob DeGrom outpitched him again, but he'll be in the conversation)
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Like the rest of the Red Sox, he flopped. It'll be either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole who both had super seasons)
NL Rookie: Fernando Tatis Jr. (Pete Alonso made history every time he took an at bat, and Tatis had too many injuries)
AL Rookie: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (not quite there yet. Yordan Alvarez was insane for the Astros)
NL Manager: Dave Martinez (he took his team back from the brink, but he got them there in the first place. Craig Counsell has does another good job with the Brewers, but Brian Snitker deserves love for the machine he's built in Atlanta)
AL Manager: Aaron Boone (slam dunk considering the injuries his team has gone through)

New Playoff Predictions:

NL: 
Wild Card Game: Nationals over Brewers

NLDS: Braves over Cardinals in 4
            Dodgers over Nationals in 4

NLCS: Braves over Dodgers in 7

AL:
Wild Card Game: Rays over A's

ALDS: Astros over Rays in 3
            Yankees over Twins in 4

ALCS: Yankees over Astros in 7

World Series: Yankees over Braves in 6

These will end up going wrong too, I bet.

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