For the first six NFL seasons on the blog, I wrote a weekly fantasy advice column not just as a passion project, but also because of my love of fantasy football that kept growing through time. I'd bet almost half the posts on this blog are fantasy columns. Last year, I didn't write one because I thought I'd be too busy with a job to write it again. That wasn't true, and it's also not true this year. It's also a place for me to scratch my fantasy itch because I don't have a team or a league this year because I have no friends. But that doesn't mean I can't help the few who read this blog with fantasy advice they may or may not need. The column has returned, so let's get back to work.
Start of the Week: QB Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs. OAK
Mariota will finally have a full compliment of healthy receivers for this game, and looked to show no ill effects of his injury from the tail end of last season. He faces a Raiders secondary that isn't as good as you'd think, especially with the injury to David Amerson. It also wouldn't be a shock to see the Titans begin to throw the ball more than they have despite the success of "exotic smashmouth".
Who to Start:
QB Carson Palmer (ARZ) at DET: Thanks to injuries to Andrew Luck and hurricane enforced bye weeks, Palmer is a good stopgap if you need one. He has a healthy receiving corps, David Johnson, and faces a less than stellar Detroit defense. He always has bust potential too, but the boom potential this week is exciting.
RB Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs. NO MON: He's been less heralded than his fellow rookie RB's in Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey, but he has the potential to be quite a solid option all season, depending on how he and Latavius Murray split touches. Regardless of how many he gets on Monday, the Saints defense is one almost every opposing offense will have success against, so Cook could get his career in fantasy off to a great start.
WR Sammy Watkins (LAR) vs. IND: I don't trust Jared Goff yet, and neither should you. But, Sammy Watkins has experience putting up numbers with less than stellar QB in Buffalo, so even with questions over who is throwing him the ball, the Colts defense without Vontae Davis poor defending the pass. Watkins should get off to a great start with the Rams.
WR Martavis Bryant (PIT) at CLE: The Steelers have so many weapons on offense that the biggest problem for fantasy players might be deciphering how the love gets spread around. Bryant, now back from a season-long suspension, figures to get plenty of looks from Big Ben and should be very successful against the Browns, who still don't have a good secondary.
TE Jason Witten (DAL) vs. NYG: He's not a number one fantasy tight end anymore, but he always seems to do well against the Giants, no matter how good their defense is. As teams key in on Dak, Zeke and Dez, Witten will occupy the soft spots in defensive schemes which will offer him the chance to be a decent fantasy option all season.
DEF Houston vs. JAX: Start every team's defense when they play against the Jaguars. This should be obvious from last year, and Houston's defense has the trio of Clowney, Watt and Mercilus on the field together for the first time ever. They could make some big noise on Sunday.
Sit of the Week: Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. BAL
Mixon has quite the crowded backfield to sort through before inevitably becoming the starter, but that day isn't going to be on Sunday against a stout Ravens defense. Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard will siphon touches from Mixon, and the Ravens defense looks to be one of the sneaky good units in football. Mixon's time will come, but not right now.
Who to Sit:
QB Philip Rivers (LAC) at DEN MON: Rivers could end up being fantastic this season, but he's never played well against the Broncos. He's only had one dynamite fantasy outing in the last six games against Denver dating back to 2014, and even though his receiving corps is healthy, Denver's D is still fairly stout despite a fair amount of attrition. Avoid Rivers for now.
RB Leonard Fournette (JAX) at HOU: Fournette could still be really good this season, and should be a contender for offensive rookie of the year despite the Jaguars ineptitude. But his offensive line is a mess, and he's likely not 100% healed from that foot injury. No Jags RB has scored against the Texans since 2013.
WR T.Y Hilton (IND) at LAR: Scott Tolzien is starting at QB, which makes T.Y Hilton a very dangerous fantasy play. Hilton only had three catches for 54 yards last season in Tolzien's lone start, and only has 630 yards in 10 career games without Luck playing. Hilton is so talented, but he may be QB dependent, making him a dangerous fantasy play.
WR Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. NYG: Another player you probably drafted fairly high, but has risk written all over him. The Giants always seem to defend Dez well, but his numbers weren't what many expected from him last season, particularly against Big Blue. If you have Bryant, you're probably starting him, though beware what could be some troubles ahead.
TE Eric Ebron (DET) vs. ARZ: The Cardinals always defend tight ends well, and it's also tough to play a player coming off a hamstring injury as Ebron is. He's also not proven enough as a fantasy option to play him in a brutal matchup.
DEF Kansas City at NE THU: This seems inevitable, but because the Chiefs D is so good, you may start them anyway. But don't. Tonight is the Pats show, and while the Chiefs D will be really good the rest of the way, the start of their season could be plenty rough.
3 Super Sleepers:
QB Sam Bradford (MIN) vs. NO MON: Even Sam Bradford is a worthy fantasy play against the Saints defense, which is seemingly getting worse with each passing season. If you have a Luck or Winston problem, Bradford could be a great stopgap.
RB Adrian Peterson (NO) at MIN MON: The Saints backfield is a crowded one with Mark Ingram getting the majority of touches in all likelihood, but with Peterson embracing the revenge game angle in ways many players don't, watch for him to be a sneaky flex play. Don't be surprised if he goes off.
TE C.J Fiedorowicz (HOU) vs. JAX: Tom Savage will need a safety blanket, and his number one tight end could be the guy against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has never defended the tight end well, and Fiedorowicz could easily benefit this week. He's a deep sleeper, but not a bad play either.
Buyer Beware: QB Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. NYG
I love Dak. He was so great as a rookie running and passing the ball, but not only did he struggle against the Giants, he's a prime regression candidate because of his running successes. Dak will have plenty of time to improve his play, but the Giants D has flummoxed the Cowboys in recent year. Dak is not the best start this week, especially if you have better options.
Welcome back this wonderful column, and enjoy the start of the football season.
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Thursday, September 7, 2017
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
2017 NFL Season Predictions
After an offseason of dull and inane non-stories, controversies and mindless talk of the Patriots going 16-0, the new NFL season is upon us. At long last, we can talk about controversies and mindless non-stories on the field instead of off it. We can obsess over the minutae of our fantasy teams (except me, because I have no friends and no league), marvel at how good some of the league's standard bearers are, and laugh at the dumpster fires once again instead of saying how we're going to do these thing. So, below you'll find this blog's official NFL season predictions for the eighth consecutive season. Let's get down to business:
AFC East:
1. Patriots 13-3
2. Dolphins 7-9
3. Bills 5-11
4. Jets 3-13
There should not be any surprises here. Though the Patriots have lost Julian Edelman for the season, they are still insanely deep and have Tom Brady. The talk of 16-0 was premature and ridiculous, but this team is dynastic for a reason. They go into the season as favorites to repeat for good reason. What the Dolphins did last season to make the playoffs was impressive, but to pull off the same feat with the injuries they've suffered, playing 16 straight weeks and yes, Jay Cutler would be a testament to Adam Gase and that front office that just isn't there.
In Buffalo, they're looking towards a future with Josh Rosen, Josh Allen or Sam Darnold and not with Tyrod Taylor after their bizarre training camp trades, and Sean McDermott's comments that LeSean McCoy could play every snap this season don't inspire much confidence. 1999 will still be a halcyon year for Bills fans. And as for the Jets... the less said, the better (I don't predict records better than 13-3 or 3-13, for the record).
NFC East:
1. Cowboys 11-5
2. Giants 10-6
3. Eagles 8-8
4. Washington 7-9
The NFC's toughest division looks at this point to shape up much the same way it did a season ago, with the Cowboys as standard bearers and everyone else following suit. While Dallas won't be quite as good a year ago thanks to a talent drain on the offensive line and on defense, they have Dak, Zeke, Dez and the league's best offensive line anyway. The Giants defense figures to be impressive, even though their best player is not one of their big free agent signings of past years. Their offensive issues remain basically the same as in past years, but they should have enough to contend for a wild card spot regardless.
In Philadelphia, Carson Wentz should improve, as should the Eagles defense, especially the secondary. But they still have more room to grow, which will become apparent multiple times this season. But this team has good upside and it wouldn't be a shock to see them contending in December. Washington, two years removed from winning the NFC East, have the major Kirk Cousins questions hanging over the head, uncertainty at the skill positions after all the transition there and the nagging feeling that the franchise is on the edge of falling off the tracks. That derails what could be a playoff contending season for them.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh 12-4
2. Cincinnati 9-7
3. Baltimore 7-9
4. Cleveland 4-12
These aren't your father's Steelers. Suspect on defense in spots, but home to potentially the league's most dynamic offense, the Steelers were AFC runners up last season and figure to be major contenders again; perhaps New England's toughest test. The schedule is favorable too. If the defense takes the next step, and that's a big if, they could pip the Pats to the AFC post. In Cincy, Marvin Lewis still has his job, and the Bengals have been reloading through the draft as best they can. In John Ross and Joe Mixon, they have potential impact rookies to join with their established core, and the schedule is also favorable. But there are offensive line questions and the lingering doubts about whether Lewis is long in the tooth as a head coach remain. They won't be as bad as they were a season ago, but the playoffs may be just out of reach.
Joe Flacco is healthy enough for Week 1, which is great news for the Ravens, but their offense still leaves a whole lot to be desired. While the defense may be enough to keep them in contention for a while, it can't carry an offensively challenged team to the playoffs. There simply hasn't been enough investment and talent identification on that side of the ball. And in Cleveland, there is hope, but a lot of it won't be seen this season. They'll have their moments, but the best they can hope for by Lake Erie is that this rebuild will at long last be the successful one.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 8-8
3. Detroit 7-9
4. Chicago 5-11
The Packers are the Packers, and whether they can make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2011 falls on their defense. Aaron Rodgers makes everyone around him better, but can his play elevate Green Bay's somewhat suspect defense? With Sam Bradford at QB, the Vikings are the definition of OK. With Teddy Bridgewater they had upward momentum, but that all slammed shut last year. They have decent playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and a solid defense, but nothing that stands out in a competitive NFC.
Detroit has the highest paid QB in NFL history and... not much else. They made the playoffs last year but that came because they were preposterously good in close games, and if there isn't a sure sign of regression, that may be the closest there is. And in Chicago, Mitchell Trubisky will be starting by the end of November, which isn't going to be bad for a team in transition that will rely heavily on Jordan Howard to shoulder the offensive load with Cameron Meredith shelved for the season.
AFC South:
1. Tennessee 11-5
2. Houston 9-7
3. Indianapolis 7-9
4. Jacksonville 4-12
This is the time for the Titans to wrest control of the AFC South. They have the best (and healthiest) QB in the division, an offensive identity and style and an improving defense. Mariota's week 16 injury only temporarily stopped their momentum. It's hard to see them not winning this division this year. Houston will be motivated by Hurricane Harvey's devastating impact on their city, and with J.J Watt healthy, they will certainly have the defense to back it up. But because of starting Tom Savage, and Lamar Miller showing signs of wear and tear, they won't have enough to beat Tennessee, but will be a wild card contender.
The Colts have so badly bungled Andrew Luck's health, new GM or not that its frankly insulting to a player of his caliber. The offensive line, a huge area of concern, looks no better than it did last season meaning that when Luck comes back, he won't be able to stand upright and find a bevy of impressive weapons. As for the Jaguars, Blake Bortles is a bust and his ineptitude will overshadow how good the defense could be and how much Leonard Fournette will run the ball.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta 11-5
2. Tampa Bay 10-6
3. Carolina 8-8
4. New Orleans 6-10
Can Atlanta overcome the usual Super Bowl hangover and then all of the 28-3 jokes to get back to the promised land? They're saying all the right things, and they certainly have the offense to do it, but the defense looks to be solid as well. In a division with many other question marks, they seem to be the most sure thing. After watching Hard Knocks, how can you not be excited to drink the Bucs Kool-aid? Jameis Winston and his offensive weapons look to be primed to take the next step, and the defense is no slouch either. They're a for sure playoff contender, and they could easily get there too and win the division.
Carolina and their new run focused offense has a chance to be successful, but this is not the team that went 15-1 two seasons ago. They have a chance to recapture some of that magic perhaps, but some of that momentum feels a bit left in the pages of history. And in New Orleans, its up to Drew Brees to keep a team with a sinking offense and a horrendous defense afloat, and this may be the season when the Saints run out of gas.
AFC West:
1. Oakland 11-5
2. Kansas City 11-5
3. LA Chargers 8-8
4. Denver 7-9
So many think that the Raiders won't have the luck or the guile to win the AFC West, but I disagree. Derek Carr will be more motivated than ever, and the defense while having some holes, is coached by Jack Del Rio who is quite the defense coach. Their schedule is a major impediment, and being a lame duck team also doesn't help. Kansas City has the stability of Andy Reid, Alex Smith and a ferocious defense to overcome the loss of Spencer Ware, but perhaps not quite enough to win the division.
Many think this is finally the year for the Chargers to be healthy and live up to their potential under Anthony Lynn, but the team has some unfortunate injury luck that never seems to leave them and some units that leave a lot to be desired, particularly their linebacking group without Denzel Perryman. And they're playing in a MLS stadium. They should not be allowed to host a NFL playoff game at StubHub Center. As for the Super Bowl 50 champions, they are feeling the squeeze of the salary cap and age curves, as well as Paxton Lynch not panning out the way so many hoped he would. Trevor Siemian is not inspiring. A lack of Wade Phillips calling the defensive plays will also hurt, as will a brutal schedule.
NFC West:
1. Seattle 12-4
2. Arizona 9-7
3. LA Rams 6-10
4. San Francisco 4-12
Adding Sheldon Richardson to that fearsome defensive line only makes the Seahawks even better, but much of this season falls on the shoulders, legs and arms of Russell Wilson, and he seems ready to take control once again, that is, if his offensive line keeps him upright. They have all the tools to be incredibly competitive in a wide open NFC. Arizona is going with a old west last chance saloon season for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and company, and in the wild west, anything can happen. In this case, it means the Cardinals fall just short of the playoffs thanks to Carson Palmer showing his age. David Johnson can't do it all.
The Rams will improve this season, but not a whole lot. Todd Gurley and Sammy Watkins will be a big part of that, but Jared Goff is still a major question mark, and the Aaron Donald holdout will loom over them all season. The 49ers have a good plan in place, and seemingly the right people to execute it, but no players yet to do so.
Playoff Predictions:
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Pittsburgh 12-4
3. Tennessee 11-5
4. Oakland 11-5
5. Kansas City 11-5
6. Cincinnati 9-7 (beats Houston in Week 2)
AFC Wild Cards: 3. Tennessee over 6. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City over 4. Oakland
AFC Divisional Round: 1. New England over 5. Kansas City
2. Pittsburgh over 3. Tennessee
AFC Championship: 1. New England over 2. Pittsburgh
NFC:
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Seattle 12-4
3. Atlanta 11-5
4. Dallas 11-5
5. New York Giants 10-6
6. Tampa Bay 10-6
NFC Wild Cards: 3. Atlanta over 6. Tampa Bay
5. New York Giants over 4. Dallas
NFC Divisional Round: 1. Green Bay over 5. New York Giants
2. Seattle over 3. Atlanta
NFC Championship Game: 2. Seattle over 1. Green Bay
Super Bowl 52: New England over Seattle, 27-20.
Award Predictions:
MVP: Tom Brady (NE)
OPOY: Le'Veon Bell (PIT)
DPOY: J.J Watt (HOU)
Coach: Dirk Koetter (TB)
Offensive Rookie: Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
Defensive Rookie: Myles Garrett (CLE, hope he's healthy)
Comeback: J.J Watt (HOU, could it be anyone else?)
Most of my season predictions don't go so well, but the league feels so stratified now that I'm more confident than ever in these picks. That will be my demise come January, inevitably.
Let's stop talking about football, and instead, let's watch football.
AFC East:
1. Patriots 13-3
2. Dolphins 7-9
3. Bills 5-11
4. Jets 3-13
There should not be any surprises here. Though the Patriots have lost Julian Edelman for the season, they are still insanely deep and have Tom Brady. The talk of 16-0 was premature and ridiculous, but this team is dynastic for a reason. They go into the season as favorites to repeat for good reason. What the Dolphins did last season to make the playoffs was impressive, but to pull off the same feat with the injuries they've suffered, playing 16 straight weeks and yes, Jay Cutler would be a testament to Adam Gase and that front office that just isn't there.
In Buffalo, they're looking towards a future with Josh Rosen, Josh Allen or Sam Darnold and not with Tyrod Taylor after their bizarre training camp trades, and Sean McDermott's comments that LeSean McCoy could play every snap this season don't inspire much confidence. 1999 will still be a halcyon year for Bills fans. And as for the Jets... the less said, the better (I don't predict records better than 13-3 or 3-13, for the record).
NFC East:
1. Cowboys 11-5
2. Giants 10-6
3. Eagles 8-8
4. Washington 7-9
The NFC's toughest division looks at this point to shape up much the same way it did a season ago, with the Cowboys as standard bearers and everyone else following suit. While Dallas won't be quite as good a year ago thanks to a talent drain on the offensive line and on defense, they have Dak, Zeke, Dez and the league's best offensive line anyway. The Giants defense figures to be impressive, even though their best player is not one of their big free agent signings of past years. Their offensive issues remain basically the same as in past years, but they should have enough to contend for a wild card spot regardless.
In Philadelphia, Carson Wentz should improve, as should the Eagles defense, especially the secondary. But they still have more room to grow, which will become apparent multiple times this season. But this team has good upside and it wouldn't be a shock to see them contending in December. Washington, two years removed from winning the NFC East, have the major Kirk Cousins questions hanging over the head, uncertainty at the skill positions after all the transition there and the nagging feeling that the franchise is on the edge of falling off the tracks. That derails what could be a playoff contending season for them.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh 12-4
2. Cincinnati 9-7
3. Baltimore 7-9
4. Cleveland 4-12
These aren't your father's Steelers. Suspect on defense in spots, but home to potentially the league's most dynamic offense, the Steelers were AFC runners up last season and figure to be major contenders again; perhaps New England's toughest test. The schedule is favorable too. If the defense takes the next step, and that's a big if, they could pip the Pats to the AFC post. In Cincy, Marvin Lewis still has his job, and the Bengals have been reloading through the draft as best they can. In John Ross and Joe Mixon, they have potential impact rookies to join with their established core, and the schedule is also favorable. But there are offensive line questions and the lingering doubts about whether Lewis is long in the tooth as a head coach remain. They won't be as bad as they were a season ago, but the playoffs may be just out of reach.
Joe Flacco is healthy enough for Week 1, which is great news for the Ravens, but their offense still leaves a whole lot to be desired. While the defense may be enough to keep them in contention for a while, it can't carry an offensively challenged team to the playoffs. There simply hasn't been enough investment and talent identification on that side of the ball. And in Cleveland, there is hope, but a lot of it won't be seen this season. They'll have their moments, but the best they can hope for by Lake Erie is that this rebuild will at long last be the successful one.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 8-8
3. Detroit 7-9
4. Chicago 5-11
The Packers are the Packers, and whether they can make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2011 falls on their defense. Aaron Rodgers makes everyone around him better, but can his play elevate Green Bay's somewhat suspect defense? With Sam Bradford at QB, the Vikings are the definition of OK. With Teddy Bridgewater they had upward momentum, but that all slammed shut last year. They have decent playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and a solid defense, but nothing that stands out in a competitive NFC.
Detroit has the highest paid QB in NFL history and... not much else. They made the playoffs last year but that came because they were preposterously good in close games, and if there isn't a sure sign of regression, that may be the closest there is. And in Chicago, Mitchell Trubisky will be starting by the end of November, which isn't going to be bad for a team in transition that will rely heavily on Jordan Howard to shoulder the offensive load with Cameron Meredith shelved for the season.
AFC South:
1. Tennessee 11-5
2. Houston 9-7
3. Indianapolis 7-9
4. Jacksonville 4-12
This is the time for the Titans to wrest control of the AFC South. They have the best (and healthiest) QB in the division, an offensive identity and style and an improving defense. Mariota's week 16 injury only temporarily stopped their momentum. It's hard to see them not winning this division this year. Houston will be motivated by Hurricane Harvey's devastating impact on their city, and with J.J Watt healthy, they will certainly have the defense to back it up. But because of starting Tom Savage, and Lamar Miller showing signs of wear and tear, they won't have enough to beat Tennessee, but will be a wild card contender.
The Colts have so badly bungled Andrew Luck's health, new GM or not that its frankly insulting to a player of his caliber. The offensive line, a huge area of concern, looks no better than it did last season meaning that when Luck comes back, he won't be able to stand upright and find a bevy of impressive weapons. As for the Jaguars, Blake Bortles is a bust and his ineptitude will overshadow how good the defense could be and how much Leonard Fournette will run the ball.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta 11-5
2. Tampa Bay 10-6
3. Carolina 8-8
4. New Orleans 6-10
Can Atlanta overcome the usual Super Bowl hangover and then all of the 28-3 jokes to get back to the promised land? They're saying all the right things, and they certainly have the offense to do it, but the defense looks to be solid as well. In a division with many other question marks, they seem to be the most sure thing. After watching Hard Knocks, how can you not be excited to drink the Bucs Kool-aid? Jameis Winston and his offensive weapons look to be primed to take the next step, and the defense is no slouch either. They're a for sure playoff contender, and they could easily get there too and win the division.
Carolina and their new run focused offense has a chance to be successful, but this is not the team that went 15-1 two seasons ago. They have a chance to recapture some of that magic perhaps, but some of that momentum feels a bit left in the pages of history. And in New Orleans, its up to Drew Brees to keep a team with a sinking offense and a horrendous defense afloat, and this may be the season when the Saints run out of gas.
AFC West:
1. Oakland 11-5
2. Kansas City 11-5
3. LA Chargers 8-8
4. Denver 7-9
So many think that the Raiders won't have the luck or the guile to win the AFC West, but I disagree. Derek Carr will be more motivated than ever, and the defense while having some holes, is coached by Jack Del Rio who is quite the defense coach. Their schedule is a major impediment, and being a lame duck team also doesn't help. Kansas City has the stability of Andy Reid, Alex Smith and a ferocious defense to overcome the loss of Spencer Ware, but perhaps not quite enough to win the division.
Many think this is finally the year for the Chargers to be healthy and live up to their potential under Anthony Lynn, but the team has some unfortunate injury luck that never seems to leave them and some units that leave a lot to be desired, particularly their linebacking group without Denzel Perryman. And they're playing in a MLS stadium. They should not be allowed to host a NFL playoff game at StubHub Center. As for the Super Bowl 50 champions, they are feeling the squeeze of the salary cap and age curves, as well as Paxton Lynch not panning out the way so many hoped he would. Trevor Siemian is not inspiring. A lack of Wade Phillips calling the defensive plays will also hurt, as will a brutal schedule.
NFC West:
1. Seattle 12-4
2. Arizona 9-7
3. LA Rams 6-10
4. San Francisco 4-12
Adding Sheldon Richardson to that fearsome defensive line only makes the Seahawks even better, but much of this season falls on the shoulders, legs and arms of Russell Wilson, and he seems ready to take control once again, that is, if his offensive line keeps him upright. They have all the tools to be incredibly competitive in a wide open NFC. Arizona is going with a old west last chance saloon season for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and company, and in the wild west, anything can happen. In this case, it means the Cardinals fall just short of the playoffs thanks to Carson Palmer showing his age. David Johnson can't do it all.
The Rams will improve this season, but not a whole lot. Todd Gurley and Sammy Watkins will be a big part of that, but Jared Goff is still a major question mark, and the Aaron Donald holdout will loom over them all season. The 49ers have a good plan in place, and seemingly the right people to execute it, but no players yet to do so.
Playoff Predictions:
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Pittsburgh 12-4
3. Tennessee 11-5
4. Oakland 11-5
5. Kansas City 11-5
6. Cincinnati 9-7 (beats Houston in Week 2)
AFC Wild Cards: 3. Tennessee over 6. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City over 4. Oakland
AFC Divisional Round: 1. New England over 5. Kansas City
2. Pittsburgh over 3. Tennessee
AFC Championship: 1. New England over 2. Pittsburgh
NFC:
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Seattle 12-4
3. Atlanta 11-5
4. Dallas 11-5
5. New York Giants 10-6
6. Tampa Bay 10-6
NFC Wild Cards: 3. Atlanta over 6. Tampa Bay
5. New York Giants over 4. Dallas
NFC Divisional Round: 1. Green Bay over 5. New York Giants
2. Seattle over 3. Atlanta
NFC Championship Game: 2. Seattle over 1. Green Bay
Super Bowl 52: New England over Seattle, 27-20.
Award Predictions:
MVP: Tom Brady (NE)
OPOY: Le'Veon Bell (PIT)
DPOY: J.J Watt (HOU)
Coach: Dirk Koetter (TB)
Offensive Rookie: Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
Defensive Rookie: Myles Garrett (CLE, hope he's healthy)
Comeback: J.J Watt (HOU, could it be anyone else?)
Most of my season predictions don't go so well, but the league feels so stratified now that I'm more confident than ever in these picks. That will be my demise come January, inevitably.
Let's stop talking about football, and instead, let's watch football.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
2017-18 Premier League Predictions post Transfer Deadline
Three weeks ago, I wrote a Premier League predictions piece with plenty of transfer window to come. Because the transfer window ends after each team has played a few games, it meant that teams weren't as complete as they would be. Now, the transfer window has slammed shut, Big Ben isn't chiming anymore (but that was already the case), and Jim White has been cryogenically until this time next year. It's time to take a look at the Premier League as all of the transfer dust has settled.
Relegation:
20. Brighton and Hove Albion
19. Burnley
18. Huddersfield Town
No changes to this group despite Huddersfield and Burnley getting off to surprising starts. Brighton have made a bunch of moves, but their squad still lacks Premier League quality in many places. Burnley were incredibly lucky in their first two road fixtures, and that luck isn't likely to continue into the future, though they seem to have adequately replaced Andre Gray. And though Huddersfield is off to a flying start, it stands to reason that the better teams in the league will expose their frailties. None of their late transfer business really changes their place in the table.
Relegation fodder:
17. Crystal Palace (were 16th initially)
16. Newcastle United (were 11th initially)
15. Swansea City (were 17th initially)
14. Watford (were 14th initially)
Crystal Palace's transfer window was pretty shocking, and their start to the campaign was equally so. Frank De Boer is under pressure and though the Eagles will adapt to his system eventually you'd think, will he be around to see that happen? Newcastle had more transfer window drama and their squad is still very thin in places (see left back), but Rafa has enough there to keep them just out of the relegation places. Swansea's place is more secure after adding in Renato Sanches on loan, but also bringing back Wilfried Bony will help them replace the goals they lost when Fernando Llorente moved to Spurs. And Watford continued their trend of bringing in a hoard of players they'll probably never use, but their start to the season ensures that they're probably safe again. Marco Silva has the managerial talent and young Richarlison is quite the find.
Safe, but not secure:
13. Bournemouth (were 11th initially)
12. West Ham United (were 9th initially)
11. Stoke City (were 13th initially)
Bournemouth's start to the season is concerning, but they still have the attacking ability and the manager to get them out of their little funk, though it is concerning to see that they haven't really strengthened the squad outside of bringing in Jermain Defoe as a reserve. They should be OK though. The same is likely the case with West Ham, though Slaven Bilic is under immense pressure with his team looking quite poor. They haven't played a home game yet though, and they started slow last year though eventually got it right. Stoke City is so weird, because they seem to have stagnated but with shrewd additions like Jese and Eric Maxim Choupo-Mouting, they should be good enough to steer clear of the relegation mire, though again, that stagnation is a concerning prospect.
Best of the Rest:
10. West Bromwich Albion (were 14th initially)
9. Leicester City
8. Southampton
7. Everton
How does Tony Pulis pull off what he manages to pull off? Signing Grzegorz Krychowiak on loan from PSG is a masterstroke, as is getting the highly touted Oliver Burke. Once they get 40 points, they will head to the beach until next season, but they could easily hit that Pulis magic number way sooner than in past years. No changes for Leicester, Saints or Everton despite their flurry of activity. Leicester somehow managed to hold onto Riyad Mahrez against the odds, and have given Arsenal and United good tests at their grounds already. Combine that with their ability to easily dispatch teams below them, they're a mid-table team easy. Southampton also somehow kept Virgil Van Dijk and strengthened their defense too with Wesley Hoedt. Mauricio Pellegrino is a good manager too, so Saints are going to continue to chug along as they always do, despite players and managers being rotated through almost interchangeably. And for Everton, in spite of their bonanza of a window, they haven't done enough to broach the top six and with Ross Barkley still at Goodison Park, there's unfinished drama ahead.
The Sky Six:
6. Arsenal (were 4th initially)
What a mess of a window. Here is their transfer window summarized in one tweet:
5. Tottenham Hotspur
They did make transfer moves eventually, in fact they made five of them. They remade their depth options along the backline in signing Davinson Sanchez and Juan Foyth, replaced Kyle Walker with Serge Aurier and added Fernando Llorente in an odd move to get goals from the striker position behind Harry Kane. But they are still not exactly deep behind their best XI, and they will be tested in big ways on all fronts this year, and there's still the matter of that Wembley mental block. They need great form from players like Moussa Sissoko, Georges Kevin N'Koudou and a healthy Erik Lamela to replicate what they did last year, and as of this point that seems unlikely.
4. Liverpool (were 6th initially)
There is no team outside of Manchester United that has been more impressive starting their campaign than Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp always knows how to get Liverpool humming against the best teams, and their demolition of Arsenal was incredibly impressive. Adding Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to the mix is also good business for sure. However, the squad is still imbalanced towards attack, they have a purportedly unhappy Phillipe Coutinho in the squad and they never perform as they should against the league's worst teams. They have a chance to really grow this season, but that growth could still be stunted by problems of their own making.
3. Chelsea (were 2nd initially)
Chelsea's shocking opening day loss to Burnley at home has been mitigated by their wins against Spurs and Everton, but there's still something not right about this squad. It's thin in many places, especially striker, and their late additions in the forms of Davide Zappacosta and Danny Drinkwater aren't exactly inspiring. They're not in danger of falling out of the Champions League picture, but they are in danger of being lapped by the two Manchester clubs for the title because their squad is just not deep enough. However, Eden Hazard's return is something to keep an eye on.
2. Manchester United (were 3rd initially)
No one has been more impressive to start the season than the Red Devils. Nemanja Matic has freed up Paul Pogba to be Paul Pogba, and Romelu Lukaku is finishing the chances that United didn't finish last year. How they perform against the best teams in the league is another story entirely, but they could easily build up a huge head of steam going forward in advance of big games to come. The squad could use some improvement at the back, but everywhere else they look incredibly deep and incredibly imposing. Jose's second year magic might make its way to Old Trafford this campaign.
1. Manchester City
In spite of all of the moves made below them, and the distinct lack of Alexis Sanchez in sky blue, City remain favorites for the title. Their attack is devastating going forward as already evidenced, and with the fixes at the fullback positions, the squad is certainly more balanced. However, they may not have as much depth as they'd like, especially at centerback, which is a concern. But when Pep's team is playing a full flow, no one is beating them. And what may be terrifying is that City haven't come anywhere close to showing their best yet.
With the transfer window shut, the season can truly begin. There is plenty to be excited about for almost every team come the return of the Premier League, so now that the moves have been made and everyone's phones are down, let's get to the football.
Relegation:
20. Brighton and Hove Albion
19. Burnley
18. Huddersfield Town
No changes to this group despite Huddersfield and Burnley getting off to surprising starts. Brighton have made a bunch of moves, but their squad still lacks Premier League quality in many places. Burnley were incredibly lucky in their first two road fixtures, and that luck isn't likely to continue into the future, though they seem to have adequately replaced Andre Gray. And though Huddersfield is off to a flying start, it stands to reason that the better teams in the league will expose their frailties. None of their late transfer business really changes their place in the table.
Relegation fodder:
17. Crystal Palace (were 16th initially)
16. Newcastle United (were 11th initially)
15. Swansea City (were 17th initially)
14. Watford (were 14th initially)
Crystal Palace's transfer window was pretty shocking, and their start to the campaign was equally so. Frank De Boer is under pressure and though the Eagles will adapt to his system eventually you'd think, will he be around to see that happen? Newcastle had more transfer window drama and their squad is still very thin in places (see left back), but Rafa has enough there to keep them just out of the relegation places. Swansea's place is more secure after adding in Renato Sanches on loan, but also bringing back Wilfried Bony will help them replace the goals they lost when Fernando Llorente moved to Spurs. And Watford continued their trend of bringing in a hoard of players they'll probably never use, but their start to the season ensures that they're probably safe again. Marco Silva has the managerial talent and young Richarlison is quite the find.
Safe, but not secure:
13. Bournemouth (were 11th initially)
12. West Ham United (were 9th initially)
11. Stoke City (were 13th initially)
Bournemouth's start to the season is concerning, but they still have the attacking ability and the manager to get them out of their little funk, though it is concerning to see that they haven't really strengthened the squad outside of bringing in Jermain Defoe as a reserve. They should be OK though. The same is likely the case with West Ham, though Slaven Bilic is under immense pressure with his team looking quite poor. They haven't played a home game yet though, and they started slow last year though eventually got it right. Stoke City is so weird, because they seem to have stagnated but with shrewd additions like Jese and Eric Maxim Choupo-Mouting, they should be good enough to steer clear of the relegation mire, though again, that stagnation is a concerning prospect.
Best of the Rest:
10. West Bromwich Albion (were 14th initially)
9. Leicester City
8. Southampton
7. Everton
How does Tony Pulis pull off what he manages to pull off? Signing Grzegorz Krychowiak on loan from PSG is a masterstroke, as is getting the highly touted Oliver Burke. Once they get 40 points, they will head to the beach until next season, but they could easily hit that Pulis magic number way sooner than in past years. No changes for Leicester, Saints or Everton despite their flurry of activity. Leicester somehow managed to hold onto Riyad Mahrez against the odds, and have given Arsenal and United good tests at their grounds already. Combine that with their ability to easily dispatch teams below them, they're a mid-table team easy. Southampton also somehow kept Virgil Van Dijk and strengthened their defense too with Wesley Hoedt. Mauricio Pellegrino is a good manager too, so Saints are going to continue to chug along as they always do, despite players and managers being rotated through almost interchangeably. And for Everton, in spite of their bonanza of a window, they haven't done enough to broach the top six and with Ross Barkley still at Goodison Park, there's unfinished drama ahead.
The Sky Six:
6. Arsenal (were 4th initially)
What a mess of a window. Here is their transfer window summarized in one tweet:
— Ian Wright (@IanWright0) August 31, 2017That's no good. Even though they brought in Alexandre Lacazette, that's fixing a problem that didn't exist, and they didn't strengthen elsewhere. Many of the same problems they've had for years still remain, and though they kept Alexis Sanchez, he's likely to leave on a free next summer. There wasn't much foresight or a plan this summer for Arsenal, and though they shifted out plenty of deadweight, they have more holes than they did a year ago. Problems are afoot at the Emirates.
5. Tottenham Hotspur
They did make transfer moves eventually, in fact they made five of them. They remade their depth options along the backline in signing Davinson Sanchez and Juan Foyth, replaced Kyle Walker with Serge Aurier and added Fernando Llorente in an odd move to get goals from the striker position behind Harry Kane. But they are still not exactly deep behind their best XI, and they will be tested in big ways on all fronts this year, and there's still the matter of that Wembley mental block. They need great form from players like Moussa Sissoko, Georges Kevin N'Koudou and a healthy Erik Lamela to replicate what they did last year, and as of this point that seems unlikely.
4. Liverpool (were 6th initially)
There is no team outside of Manchester United that has been more impressive starting their campaign than Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp always knows how to get Liverpool humming against the best teams, and their demolition of Arsenal was incredibly impressive. Adding Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to the mix is also good business for sure. However, the squad is still imbalanced towards attack, they have a purportedly unhappy Phillipe Coutinho in the squad and they never perform as they should against the league's worst teams. They have a chance to really grow this season, but that growth could still be stunted by problems of their own making.
3. Chelsea (were 2nd initially)
Chelsea's shocking opening day loss to Burnley at home has been mitigated by their wins against Spurs and Everton, but there's still something not right about this squad. It's thin in many places, especially striker, and their late additions in the forms of Davide Zappacosta and Danny Drinkwater aren't exactly inspiring. They're not in danger of falling out of the Champions League picture, but they are in danger of being lapped by the two Manchester clubs for the title because their squad is just not deep enough. However, Eden Hazard's return is something to keep an eye on.
2. Manchester United (were 3rd initially)
No one has been more impressive to start the season than the Red Devils. Nemanja Matic has freed up Paul Pogba to be Paul Pogba, and Romelu Lukaku is finishing the chances that United didn't finish last year. How they perform against the best teams in the league is another story entirely, but they could easily build up a huge head of steam going forward in advance of big games to come. The squad could use some improvement at the back, but everywhere else they look incredibly deep and incredibly imposing. Jose's second year magic might make its way to Old Trafford this campaign.
1. Manchester City
In spite of all of the moves made below them, and the distinct lack of Alexis Sanchez in sky blue, City remain favorites for the title. Their attack is devastating going forward as already evidenced, and with the fixes at the fullback positions, the squad is certainly more balanced. However, they may not have as much depth as they'd like, especially at centerback, which is a concern. But when Pep's team is playing a full flow, no one is beating them. And what may be terrifying is that City haven't come anywhere close to showing their best yet.
With the transfer window shut, the season can truly begin. There is plenty to be excited about for almost every team come the return of the Premier League, so now that the moves have been made and everyone's phones are down, let's get to the football.
Friday, August 11, 2017
2017-18 Premier League Predictions (thus far)
The 2017-18 Premier League season is upon us, which means it is invariably time for predictions. Making Premier League predictions at this time of the year is actually quite difficult, because clubs have not finished their transfer activities as of yet, and dramatic shifts in squad composition can often change the narrative and predictions. Because of this, the predictions here will be updated in a further post when the transfer window shuts at the end of the month, but until then these are the official Matt's Sports Musings Premier League predictions, at least for the next 21 days.
20. Brighton & Hove Albion
It is great to see the Seagulls in the top flight for the first time in 35 years, and with Chris Hughton, they have an experienced manager who will help them through the grind that is a top flight season. But they don't have the quality in their squad to compete realistically with their relegation rivals, even though they are now investing more money. It will be a short, but sweet return for Brighton in the top flight.
19. Burnley
Burnley found a way to stay up last year by being remarkably effective at Turf Moor and almost discounting their road form entirely. But this season, after selling Michael Keane and Andre Gray, they will be in some serious trouble because that home form isn't necessarily replicable, and their squad is weaker than it was a season ago. Sean Dyche is a great manager, but he'll have to perform some miracles to keep the Clarets up this year.
18. Huddersfield Town
David Wagner is a great younger manager that will become easy to like and admire, thanks to his Jurgen Klopp similarities. His Terries will play a brand of football much like a Terrier; aggressive, exciting if a bit out of control at times. Their budget is small, but they've made smart additions in order to give themselves a fighting chance to stay up. The likelihood is that they won't, but at least they'll be easy on the eyes in their first top flight campaign since 1972.
17. Swansea City
After much managerial turmoil last season, Paul Clement helped to stabilize a Swansea team that needed direction or else they'd be heading down. They got it in the nick of time. They have strengthened that much, and to this point they still have Gylfi Sigurdsson in one of the summer's most protracted transfer sagas. They have questions just about everywhere on the pitch, but fewer questions seemingly than the three clubs below them.
16. Crystal Palace
After another Big Sam rescue job, Palace are still kicking in the Premier League despite coming ever-so-close to going down. Frank De Boer comes in to replace Big Sam and he has some career rehabilitation to do after a disastrous spell at Inter. He's only brought in three players, two of them on loan, and the squad still has some sore spots that need to be addressed. But if he can get the best out of Christian Benteke, Palace should be able to survive another turbulent season at the bottom of the table.
15. Watford
A club no stranger to turmoil in the dugout and the dressing room, Watford again went with more changes when they hired Marco Silva and invested heavily in English talent this summer. With the additions of Nathaniel Chalobah, Will Hughes and Andre Gray, the club is trying to give Marco Silva more to work with than they did the previous manager, Walter Mazzarri. Silva has shown good tactical acumen before, and with a much deeper squad than he had at Hull, he should be able to do enough to keep Watford safe.
14. West Bromwich Albion
Once they hit 40 points, the magic number for Premier League safety, they usually switch off, and that's what happened to Tony Pulis' squad last year. This year, the same should hold true. They won't be in any real relegation danger, but they're not a top half squad either. They'll be defensively stout, scalp a few surprising wins against the big boys and do what they're supposed to do to maintain survival, but no more.
13. Stoke City
Stokealona is dead, folks. The Potters haven't invested much in new signings, and got rid of Marko Arnautovic to West Ham, leaving the squad a little bereft of quality and feeling quite stale. Mark Hughes is one of the managers who easily could be the first to be sacked because the club has quite clearly plateaued. They won't be relegated, but they need freshening up. A slow start might do enough to spark a change.
12. Newcastle United
Mike Ashley and company took a risk investing the way they did in the Championship last year, and it paid off as they won back immediate promotion. There is still an incredible amount of tension in the boardroom, but with Rafa Benitez's calming influence on a fairly decent squad, the Magpies should be able to stay up with relative ease. But, it's Newcastle, and nothing comes certain at St. James' Park.
11. Bournemouth
What Eddie Howe has done with this club is well and truly remarkable, especially considering their top flight debut was only three years ago. They've invested wisely, for the most part, and they've kept a hold of a good chunk of their squad and their growing manager too. While they haven't made too many changes this summer, the core of their squad should be plenty good enough to avoid the relegation dogfight and maybe even finish in the top half, again.
10. West Ham United
Slaven Bilic has not done much to inspire confidence recently. His team was relegation fodder at the start of last season, and the improvements this year don't really fix their defensive and tactical woes, in spite of bringing in Joe Hart. Chicharito and Marko Arnautovic should add more vigor in their attack, but it's unlikely they change the paradigm which West Ham is stuck in.
9. Leicester City
After last season's crash back to earth, Leicester should be under reasonable expectations this season. They've added smartly in some areas, but they still lack depth in others and their squad is bloated. Leicester unperformed their underlying numbers under Claudio Ranieri and then overperformed them under Craig Shakespeare. Somewhere in the middle is where this team lies, and that's probably in the 9-12 range.
8. Southampton
Saints always manage to recruit interesting managers, and Mauricio Pellegrino is another one. They've somehow kept Virgil Van Dijk despite his insistence in wanting to leave, and otherwise the squad is pretty much the same as it was a year ago. With a fresh manager and a host of players who could use an uptick in performance, Saints will win the title of "best of the rest", once again.
7. Everton
Selling Romelu Lukaku was a big deal. Bringing back in Wayne Rooney was also a big deal. There have been charges that Everton haven't invested their money wisely this summer, but this writer thinks they have. Michael Keane, Jordan Pickford and Sandro Ramirez were all smart buys, but they don't change the underlying issues that Everton faces. In the "Sky 7", they're firmly in seventh, waiting for the opportunity to pounce on someone else's mistakes.
6. Liverpool
A healthy Sadio Mane, and Mohamed Salah should make a very dynamic attack even more dynamic this season. Their issues up front have been fixed with Roberto Firmino playing as the furthest forward forward, alleviating the need for an out-and-out striker. But, their defensive issues remain, and there is still a nagging concern that Jurgen Klopp's team won't be able to perform the way that they should against lesser teams. There's also the Champions League, which adds extra stress to their squad which always has injury issues. They haven't done quite enough to improve based on what their rivals above them have done.
5. Spurs
They have a very, very good squad already, and only sold Kyle Walker this summer. However, they still haven't added anyone, and despite Mauricio Pochettino's insistence that new recruits are on the way, they haven't come in time for the start of the season. With their injury problems and many players who are unknowns, that could dig Spurs a hole that will be difficult to dig out of. Under Mauricio Pochettino, Spurs have also been notoriously slow starters, which is a problem, especially considering Chelsea comes to Wembley the second week of the season. Until they make the requisite additions to a squad crying out for them, they can only be placed here.
4. Arsenal
Here is Arsenal, back in their natural position of fourth. Alexandre Lacazette is a good player, but there are questions to whether he is a good replacement for Olivier Giroud up front and addresses a need. Sead Kolasinac is a useful player, but the squad still has the same issues that it has had for many years, and it remains to be seen whether the new 3-5-2 formation will be enough to prevent the staleness that has usually defined Arsenal in recent years. If Liverpool or Spurs make improvements in the market, then Arsenal is facing another year without Champions League football.
3. Manchester United
They've spent a huge amount of money to sign three big names, who should help the balance of their squad tremendously. Romelu Lukaku is certainly worth the money, Nemanja Matic fills a hole in midfield, and Victor Lindelof should help stabilize the back four. But the squad also has plenty of deadwood in it and needs freshening up in itself, and in comparison to what their Manchester rivals have done, it seems that they need to do more. They can easily win the title, but they still have to do more, it seems to be true favorites.
2. Chelsea
They have added smartly to their squad in the spine of the team. However, it still seems, according to Antonio Conte, that the squad needs depth in key places and he's right. It's amazing to think how their prodigious academy cannot seemingly produce players good enough for the first team, and that should alleviate their need to buy, but it hasn't. And without that depth, they are not title favorites. Adding in European football to the mix is going to stress the thin squad even more, and it will take some shrewd work by Conte and the technical staff to make the additions necessary to see if Chelsea can become the first team to repeat as Premier League champions in a decade.
1. Manchester City
City has spent an exorbitant amount of money to fix the ills in the squad, and they seemingly have worked wonders. Benjamin Mendy, Danilo and Kyle Walker are all incredibly important additions to fix the fullback spots, and Bernardo Silva makes a dynamic attack even more dynamic. A full season of Gabriel Jesus and his prodigious talent is also a mouth-watering prospect. The squad still has holes and deadwood that needs to be shifted out, but if the preseason is any guide, City should be favorites for the title as things stand.
So here are the predictions and projections for the 2017-18 season, which could easily be blown up depending on the changes teams make in the transfer window. But Premier League soccer is back, and it's time to stop playing Football Manager and instead play actual football.
20. Brighton & Hove Albion
It is great to see the Seagulls in the top flight for the first time in 35 years, and with Chris Hughton, they have an experienced manager who will help them through the grind that is a top flight season. But they don't have the quality in their squad to compete realistically with their relegation rivals, even though they are now investing more money. It will be a short, but sweet return for Brighton in the top flight.
19. Burnley
Burnley found a way to stay up last year by being remarkably effective at Turf Moor and almost discounting their road form entirely. But this season, after selling Michael Keane and Andre Gray, they will be in some serious trouble because that home form isn't necessarily replicable, and their squad is weaker than it was a season ago. Sean Dyche is a great manager, but he'll have to perform some miracles to keep the Clarets up this year.
18. Huddersfield Town
David Wagner is a great younger manager that will become easy to like and admire, thanks to his Jurgen Klopp similarities. His Terries will play a brand of football much like a Terrier; aggressive, exciting if a bit out of control at times. Their budget is small, but they've made smart additions in order to give themselves a fighting chance to stay up. The likelihood is that they won't, but at least they'll be easy on the eyes in their first top flight campaign since 1972.
17. Swansea City
After much managerial turmoil last season, Paul Clement helped to stabilize a Swansea team that needed direction or else they'd be heading down. They got it in the nick of time. They have strengthened that much, and to this point they still have Gylfi Sigurdsson in one of the summer's most protracted transfer sagas. They have questions just about everywhere on the pitch, but fewer questions seemingly than the three clubs below them.
16. Crystal Palace
After another Big Sam rescue job, Palace are still kicking in the Premier League despite coming ever-so-close to going down. Frank De Boer comes in to replace Big Sam and he has some career rehabilitation to do after a disastrous spell at Inter. He's only brought in three players, two of them on loan, and the squad still has some sore spots that need to be addressed. But if he can get the best out of Christian Benteke, Palace should be able to survive another turbulent season at the bottom of the table.
15. Watford
A club no stranger to turmoil in the dugout and the dressing room, Watford again went with more changes when they hired Marco Silva and invested heavily in English talent this summer. With the additions of Nathaniel Chalobah, Will Hughes and Andre Gray, the club is trying to give Marco Silva more to work with than they did the previous manager, Walter Mazzarri. Silva has shown good tactical acumen before, and with a much deeper squad than he had at Hull, he should be able to do enough to keep Watford safe.
14. West Bromwich Albion
Once they hit 40 points, the magic number for Premier League safety, they usually switch off, and that's what happened to Tony Pulis' squad last year. This year, the same should hold true. They won't be in any real relegation danger, but they're not a top half squad either. They'll be defensively stout, scalp a few surprising wins against the big boys and do what they're supposed to do to maintain survival, but no more.
13. Stoke City
Stokealona is dead, folks. The Potters haven't invested much in new signings, and got rid of Marko Arnautovic to West Ham, leaving the squad a little bereft of quality and feeling quite stale. Mark Hughes is one of the managers who easily could be the first to be sacked because the club has quite clearly plateaued. They won't be relegated, but they need freshening up. A slow start might do enough to spark a change.
12. Newcastle United
Mike Ashley and company took a risk investing the way they did in the Championship last year, and it paid off as they won back immediate promotion. There is still an incredible amount of tension in the boardroom, but with Rafa Benitez's calming influence on a fairly decent squad, the Magpies should be able to stay up with relative ease. But, it's Newcastle, and nothing comes certain at St. James' Park.
11. Bournemouth
What Eddie Howe has done with this club is well and truly remarkable, especially considering their top flight debut was only three years ago. They've invested wisely, for the most part, and they've kept a hold of a good chunk of their squad and their growing manager too. While they haven't made too many changes this summer, the core of their squad should be plenty good enough to avoid the relegation dogfight and maybe even finish in the top half, again.
10. West Ham United
Slaven Bilic has not done much to inspire confidence recently. His team was relegation fodder at the start of last season, and the improvements this year don't really fix their defensive and tactical woes, in spite of bringing in Joe Hart. Chicharito and Marko Arnautovic should add more vigor in their attack, but it's unlikely they change the paradigm which West Ham is stuck in.
9. Leicester City
After last season's crash back to earth, Leicester should be under reasonable expectations this season. They've added smartly in some areas, but they still lack depth in others and their squad is bloated. Leicester unperformed their underlying numbers under Claudio Ranieri and then overperformed them under Craig Shakespeare. Somewhere in the middle is where this team lies, and that's probably in the 9-12 range.
8. Southampton
Saints always manage to recruit interesting managers, and Mauricio Pellegrino is another one. They've somehow kept Virgil Van Dijk despite his insistence in wanting to leave, and otherwise the squad is pretty much the same as it was a year ago. With a fresh manager and a host of players who could use an uptick in performance, Saints will win the title of "best of the rest", once again.
7. Everton
Selling Romelu Lukaku was a big deal. Bringing back in Wayne Rooney was also a big deal. There have been charges that Everton haven't invested their money wisely this summer, but this writer thinks they have. Michael Keane, Jordan Pickford and Sandro Ramirez were all smart buys, but they don't change the underlying issues that Everton faces. In the "Sky 7", they're firmly in seventh, waiting for the opportunity to pounce on someone else's mistakes.
6. Liverpool
A healthy Sadio Mane, and Mohamed Salah should make a very dynamic attack even more dynamic this season. Their issues up front have been fixed with Roberto Firmino playing as the furthest forward forward, alleviating the need for an out-and-out striker. But, their defensive issues remain, and there is still a nagging concern that Jurgen Klopp's team won't be able to perform the way that they should against lesser teams. There's also the Champions League, which adds extra stress to their squad which always has injury issues. They haven't done quite enough to improve based on what their rivals above them have done.
5. Spurs
They have a very, very good squad already, and only sold Kyle Walker this summer. However, they still haven't added anyone, and despite Mauricio Pochettino's insistence that new recruits are on the way, they haven't come in time for the start of the season. With their injury problems and many players who are unknowns, that could dig Spurs a hole that will be difficult to dig out of. Under Mauricio Pochettino, Spurs have also been notoriously slow starters, which is a problem, especially considering Chelsea comes to Wembley the second week of the season. Until they make the requisite additions to a squad crying out for them, they can only be placed here.
4. Arsenal
Here is Arsenal, back in their natural position of fourth. Alexandre Lacazette is a good player, but there are questions to whether he is a good replacement for Olivier Giroud up front and addresses a need. Sead Kolasinac is a useful player, but the squad still has the same issues that it has had for many years, and it remains to be seen whether the new 3-5-2 formation will be enough to prevent the staleness that has usually defined Arsenal in recent years. If Liverpool or Spurs make improvements in the market, then Arsenal is facing another year without Champions League football.
3. Manchester United
They've spent a huge amount of money to sign three big names, who should help the balance of their squad tremendously. Romelu Lukaku is certainly worth the money, Nemanja Matic fills a hole in midfield, and Victor Lindelof should help stabilize the back four. But the squad also has plenty of deadwood in it and needs freshening up in itself, and in comparison to what their Manchester rivals have done, it seems that they need to do more. They can easily win the title, but they still have to do more, it seems to be true favorites.
2. Chelsea
They have added smartly to their squad in the spine of the team. However, it still seems, according to Antonio Conte, that the squad needs depth in key places and he's right. It's amazing to think how their prodigious academy cannot seemingly produce players good enough for the first team, and that should alleviate their need to buy, but it hasn't. And without that depth, they are not title favorites. Adding in European football to the mix is going to stress the thin squad even more, and it will take some shrewd work by Conte and the technical staff to make the additions necessary to see if Chelsea can become the first team to repeat as Premier League champions in a decade.
1. Manchester City
City has spent an exorbitant amount of money to fix the ills in the squad, and they seemingly have worked wonders. Benjamin Mendy, Danilo and Kyle Walker are all incredibly important additions to fix the fullback spots, and Bernardo Silva makes a dynamic attack even more dynamic. A full season of Gabriel Jesus and his prodigious talent is also a mouth-watering prospect. The squad still has holes and deadwood that needs to be shifted out, but if the preseason is any guide, City should be favorites for the title as things stand.
So here are the predictions and projections for the 2017-18 season, which could easily be blown up depending on the changes teams make in the transfer window. But Premier League soccer is back, and it's time to stop playing Football Manager and instead play actual football.
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Is FIFA's VAR going down the same road as video review in other sports?
Officiating in soccer is notoriously inconsistent, and at times horrendous. As technology has advanced rapidly, the capability now exists for decisions made by officials to not only be scrutinized on TV replays, but also by video assistant referees, or VAR. The system is making its major tournament debut at the Confederations Cup in Russia, and has already caused controversy. Is soccer heading down a path that other sports have trundled down with video review not litigating what it was intended to?
VAR has pluses and minuses, and both have already been seen in the tournament. Pepe scored a goal for Portugal against Mexico that was clearly offside, and VAR correctly overturned the call. Yet, in the following game between Chile and Cameroon, VAR overturned an Eduardo Vargas goal that may have been marginally offside, but nowhere near as egregious as what happened earlier in the day in Kazan. But even when it hasn't overturned calls, the delay to restarting games when referees are looking over plays for whatever reason has also drawn some ire, especially for goals that look to have no controversy about them whatsoever.
Naturally, as with any new system, VAR needs time to be fine-tuned by FIFA and the relevant authorities, but with the mandate to only rectify obvious mistakes, some of these early moments with VAR seem to not be following that mandate. Video review always seems fantastic in principle, but in practice, these moments where decisions split hairs always end up under the microscope more than they probably should, and soccer isn't the first sport where this has become the case.
Each of football, basketball, baseball and hockey all saw these growing pains when introducing instant replay to their sports in order to get calls correct. In hockey's example, coaches challenges were introduced after an egregious missed offside call in a Nashville/Colorado game led to a Predators goal, but now, coaches challenges litigate micrometers that may put a play offside as well as determining whether skates are on the ice or above it. The red flags, so to speak, were supposed to eliminate the egregious miscarriages of justice, but instead began litigating tiny things which can and have changed seasons.
Most everyone acknowledges that the human element of officiating causes referees to miss calls that they should catch, and that instant replay/VAR/coaches challenges do help get calls correct, which is the ultimate goal. But when Pandora's Box was opened, immediate problems became evident. It's happened in the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL and in soccer, a sport where even more decisions fall under the referee's jurisdiction, some of the surprises inside Pandora's Box are coming with correcting obvious and blatant mistakes.
Instant replay is necessary in modern sports because of the technology and especially what the fans see at home when they could potentially know more about a play than the referees do. But when there are delays, many of them needless, and when calls that split hairs end up being extensively litigated when they don't need to be, these are the kind of discussions that everyone has to have.
In the end, getting the call right is paramount. In a sport like soccer, "right" is often in a grey area where the lines are blurred, making the lives of the referees on the pitch and in the video booth harder than ever when fortunes can hinge on inches and millimeters.
When a World Cup might be won or lost on a decision like this, VAR could see its ultimate vindication. Or, it could end up being at the center of controversy if a World Cup is won or lost on a controversial call. Such is what happens when Pandora's Box is opened, and FIFA is finding the good and bad in VAR after only using it in four games.
Work needs to be done to make the system better, and only time will tell if VAR becomes the NHL's coaches challenges, or the NFL's much more refined system, or even something in between.
VAR has pluses and minuses, and both have already been seen in the tournament. Pepe scored a goal for Portugal against Mexico that was clearly offside, and VAR correctly overturned the call. Yet, in the following game between Chile and Cameroon, VAR overturned an Eduardo Vargas goal that may have been marginally offside, but nowhere near as egregious as what happened earlier in the day in Kazan. But even when it hasn't overturned calls, the delay to restarting games when referees are looking over plays for whatever reason has also drawn some ire, especially for goals that look to have no controversy about them whatsoever.
Naturally, as with any new system, VAR needs time to be fine-tuned by FIFA and the relevant authorities, but with the mandate to only rectify obvious mistakes, some of these early moments with VAR seem to not be following that mandate. Video review always seems fantastic in principle, but in practice, these moments where decisions split hairs always end up under the microscope more than they probably should, and soccer isn't the first sport where this has become the case.
Each of football, basketball, baseball and hockey all saw these growing pains when introducing instant replay to their sports in order to get calls correct. In hockey's example, coaches challenges were introduced after an egregious missed offside call in a Nashville/Colorado game led to a Predators goal, but now, coaches challenges litigate micrometers that may put a play offside as well as determining whether skates are on the ice or above it. The red flags, so to speak, were supposed to eliminate the egregious miscarriages of justice, but instead began litigating tiny things which can and have changed seasons.
Most everyone acknowledges that the human element of officiating causes referees to miss calls that they should catch, and that instant replay/VAR/coaches challenges do help get calls correct, which is the ultimate goal. But when Pandora's Box was opened, immediate problems became evident. It's happened in the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL and in soccer, a sport where even more decisions fall under the referee's jurisdiction, some of the surprises inside Pandora's Box are coming with correcting obvious and blatant mistakes.
Instant replay is necessary in modern sports because of the technology and especially what the fans see at home when they could potentially know more about a play than the referees do. But when there are delays, many of them needless, and when calls that split hairs end up being extensively litigated when they don't need to be, these are the kind of discussions that everyone has to have.
In the end, getting the call right is paramount. In a sport like soccer, "right" is often in a grey area where the lines are blurred, making the lives of the referees on the pitch and in the video booth harder than ever when fortunes can hinge on inches and millimeters.
When a World Cup might be won or lost on a decision like this, VAR could see its ultimate vindication. Or, it could end up being at the center of controversy if a World Cup is won or lost on a controversial call. Such is what happens when Pandora's Box is opened, and FIFA is finding the good and bad in VAR after only using it in four games.
Work needs to be done to make the system better, and only time will tell if VAR becomes the NHL's coaches challenges, or the NFL's much more refined system, or even something in between.
Friday, May 12, 2017
My White Hart Lane Story
SB Nation's fantastic Tottenham Hotspur blog, Cartilage Free Captain, is posting stories from supporters about White Hart Lane, the venerable old ground for the club that will host its final game on Sunday against Manchester United. Since they have quite a backlog of stories to post, and seeing as they'll likely not post a story solely about a guided tour, it's probably best that I post my own story here.
But even though my story is only about a guided tour, it still is my only experience with the ground for a club that has quickly become one of my deepest rooting interests. When I went on that guided tour back in the summer of 2012, I had only been a "Spurs supporter" for maybe a year at most, and was still learning the lay of the English soccer landscape and what it meant to support Tottenham Hotspur. I had already learned the hard way that it would be a struggle after a certain Champions League Final with a certain club that shall not be named, but that pain wasn't quite as searing as it would be for supporters with longer histories.
In my lifetime as a sports fan, I've only seen one of my team's stadiums close down, and that was Shea Stadium for the Mets. I went to one game there that was called after 4.5 innings because of rain, and I only needed that long to learn that Shea was an absolute dump. But, since I had only been there once, I didn't quite feel the emotional attachment to it that many others did, so I wasn't that sad to see it go. But with White Hart Lane, I've felt something different, despite like Shea, only going there once.
When you see where White Hart Lane is, you marvel at how stadiums can appear in places like that in the first place, but then you realize it's been there in some form or another since 1899! Quite a bit changes from 1899 to 2012 when I sauntered up to it. And then you realize that it's actually kind of... dinky. English soccer is defined by cathedrals like Old Trafford and Anfield, and while White Hart Lane has plenty of history, it certainly doesn't meet those standards. The day I turned up also turned out to be the day that Spurs legend Ledley King had announced his retirement, which made the day a little more special. Even an idiot like me could sing the great Ledley King chant about him playing on one knee.
Inside the ground, what struck me was just how... small it was. The concourses barely fit three people across, the concession stands to buy pies weren't much more than shacks, and the plastic seats barely were able to fit 18 year old me and my then overweight frame. If you sat in just the wrong spot, you'd have a support post blocking your view of the pitch, too. But looking around at the whole stadium from those seats, and then the player's tunnel, you realized that was the charm of the place. With everything just not right by modern standards and the pitch being just small enough for Spurs to easily exploit it when they were good, you realized that everyone that played for Spurs and supported Spurs at that ground left a little bit of themselves there (in a good way).
In the tour, we saw pictures of all of the club legends that even I knew by heart at that point; Bill Nicholson, Ozzie and Ricky, Klinsmann, King and so many others. We saw the few trophies that Spurs had won, including the two UEFA Cup's, a Champions League ball from the magical 2010-11 campaign, which was even more special to see then because at that time it seemed like Spurs would never play in the Champions League again and even the dressing room, with the kits of players that would soon be sold to Real Madrid. And through all of it, I felt like I belonged there.
Keep in mind that my choosing an English soccer team to support was an un-scientific process that boiled down to rooting for a club that wasn't swimming in oil money, not owned by an idiotic American (much easier to do then than now) and was just good enough to be seen on FOX Soccer every weekend, basically leaving me with Spurs and Everton to pick. I settled on Spurs because I had a distant family member who used to have season tickets at the Lane, figuring that would be a good excuse and front if I ever had to explain myself. But sitting in the Spurs dugout that day, and trying to convince my guide that Clint Dempsey would actually be a good signing and just hoping that Andre Villas-Boas wouldn't be an awful manager, I felt like I belonged at Spurs.
The club was just good enough to attract idiotic Americans like me to their cause, but not good enough that they won all the time. They had a history, a soul, and a passion that just wasn't present at Manchester United, Liverpool or Arsenal that made the experience of supporting them seemingly worthwhile. And that day at White Hart Lane confirmed to me what I already thought: I made a good decision.
I left that day thinking I'd be back to see a game there once, and it never happened. That will be one of the biggest regrets of my life. But at least I can say I was there once, if just for a tour. I know that I'll see many games at the new stadium, maybe even call a game or two there. But White Hart Lane has a little piece of every Spurs supporter there, even a dummy like me who was there only for a tour. And since it's the first time I've ever watched a stadium like the Lane close down for one of my teams, it's a new feeling. But seeing how Spurs have become such a fundamental part of me in just six short years of fandom, I can't imagine what longer term supporters and those who have been around the club way longer than I have are thinking heading into the final game. My best Spurs experiences were waking up preposterously early to watch games and then yelling at my TV when they did something stupid. What could the same thoughts be like for people whose best Spurs experiences were watching Derby wins at the Lane and chanting how Ledley King playing on one knee will always be better than John Terry?
My abiding memory of the Lane will be talking to a steward about how Clint Dempsey will actually be good for Spurs if we signed him. That's my unique White Hart Lane memory, and it will always be mine. The picture I took looking at the golden cockerel which has watched over the Lane since 1899 and the entire stadium is still my phone background, and it probably always will be. When the stadium gets torn down bit by bit, a very small part of me is going with it.
And while that part of me is miniscule compared to the hundreds of thousands of Spurs supporters who left a bigger part of themselves there, I can say that I was there, and that my White Hart Lane experience, like my Spurs fandom, is unique to me and unique to this bizarre, maddening, but brilliant club that we all share.
I just spilled a lot of virtual ink for a ridiculous hunk of sheetmetal that I went to once, in a part of London no tourist ever ventures to for a club that I've supported for maybe six years.
But that's Tottenham Hotspur, and that's White Hart Lane.
But even though my story is only about a guided tour, it still is my only experience with the ground for a club that has quickly become one of my deepest rooting interests. When I went on that guided tour back in the summer of 2012, I had only been a "Spurs supporter" for maybe a year at most, and was still learning the lay of the English soccer landscape and what it meant to support Tottenham Hotspur. I had already learned the hard way that it would be a struggle after a certain Champions League Final with a certain club that shall not be named, but that pain wasn't quite as searing as it would be for supporters with longer histories.
In my lifetime as a sports fan, I've only seen one of my team's stadiums close down, and that was Shea Stadium for the Mets. I went to one game there that was called after 4.5 innings because of rain, and I only needed that long to learn that Shea was an absolute dump. But, since I had only been there once, I didn't quite feel the emotional attachment to it that many others did, so I wasn't that sad to see it go. But with White Hart Lane, I've felt something different, despite like Shea, only going there once.
When you see where White Hart Lane is, you marvel at how stadiums can appear in places like that in the first place, but then you realize it's been there in some form or another since 1899! Quite a bit changes from 1899 to 2012 when I sauntered up to it. And then you realize that it's actually kind of... dinky. English soccer is defined by cathedrals like Old Trafford and Anfield, and while White Hart Lane has plenty of history, it certainly doesn't meet those standards. The day I turned up also turned out to be the day that Spurs legend Ledley King had announced his retirement, which made the day a little more special. Even an idiot like me could sing the great Ledley King chant about him playing on one knee.
Inside the ground, what struck me was just how... small it was. The concourses barely fit three people across, the concession stands to buy pies weren't much more than shacks, and the plastic seats barely were able to fit 18 year old me and my then overweight frame. If you sat in just the wrong spot, you'd have a support post blocking your view of the pitch, too. But looking around at the whole stadium from those seats, and then the player's tunnel, you realized that was the charm of the place. With everything just not right by modern standards and the pitch being just small enough for Spurs to easily exploit it when they were good, you realized that everyone that played for Spurs and supported Spurs at that ground left a little bit of themselves there (in a good way).
In the tour, we saw pictures of all of the club legends that even I knew by heart at that point; Bill Nicholson, Ozzie and Ricky, Klinsmann, King and so many others. We saw the few trophies that Spurs had won, including the two UEFA Cup's, a Champions League ball from the magical 2010-11 campaign, which was even more special to see then because at that time it seemed like Spurs would never play in the Champions League again and even the dressing room, with the kits of players that would soon be sold to Real Madrid. And through all of it, I felt like I belonged there.
Keep in mind that my choosing an English soccer team to support was an un-scientific process that boiled down to rooting for a club that wasn't swimming in oil money, not owned by an idiotic American (much easier to do then than now) and was just good enough to be seen on FOX Soccer every weekend, basically leaving me with Spurs and Everton to pick. I settled on Spurs because I had a distant family member who used to have season tickets at the Lane, figuring that would be a good excuse and front if I ever had to explain myself. But sitting in the Spurs dugout that day, and trying to convince my guide that Clint Dempsey would actually be a good signing and just hoping that Andre Villas-Boas wouldn't be an awful manager, I felt like I belonged at Spurs.
The club was just good enough to attract idiotic Americans like me to their cause, but not good enough that they won all the time. They had a history, a soul, and a passion that just wasn't present at Manchester United, Liverpool or Arsenal that made the experience of supporting them seemingly worthwhile. And that day at White Hart Lane confirmed to me what I already thought: I made a good decision.
I left that day thinking I'd be back to see a game there once, and it never happened. That will be one of the biggest regrets of my life. But at least I can say I was there once, if just for a tour. I know that I'll see many games at the new stadium, maybe even call a game or two there. But White Hart Lane has a little piece of every Spurs supporter there, even a dummy like me who was there only for a tour. And since it's the first time I've ever watched a stadium like the Lane close down for one of my teams, it's a new feeling. But seeing how Spurs have become such a fundamental part of me in just six short years of fandom, I can't imagine what longer term supporters and those who have been around the club way longer than I have are thinking heading into the final game. My best Spurs experiences were waking up preposterously early to watch games and then yelling at my TV when they did something stupid. What could the same thoughts be like for people whose best Spurs experiences were watching Derby wins at the Lane and chanting how Ledley King playing on one knee will always be better than John Terry?
My abiding memory of the Lane will be talking to a steward about how Clint Dempsey will actually be good for Spurs if we signed him. That's my unique White Hart Lane memory, and it will always be mine. The picture I took looking at the golden cockerel which has watched over the Lane since 1899 and the entire stadium is still my phone background, and it probably always will be. When the stadium gets torn down bit by bit, a very small part of me is going with it.
And while that part of me is miniscule compared to the hundreds of thousands of Spurs supporters who left a bigger part of themselves there, I can say that I was there, and that my White Hart Lane experience, like my Spurs fandom, is unique to me and unique to this bizarre, maddening, but brilliant club that we all share.
I just spilled a lot of virtual ink for a ridiculous hunk of sheetmetal that I went to once, in a part of London no tourist ever ventures to for a club that I've supported for maybe six years.
But that's Tottenham Hotspur, and that's White Hart Lane.
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
Mike Milbury and the NHL's Popularity Crisis
Last Friday night, PK Subban of the Predators was warming up for Game 2 against the St. Louis Blues by dancing. Not only can I not tell any hockey player how to warm up or not to warm up because that is far out of my purview, but far be it of me to tell PK Subban how to do anything related to hockey or even life. But on NBC's pregame coverage of the game, Mike Milbury, the utmost and highest authority on all hockey matters (at least he believes this), called Subban a "clown" for warming up like this.
Now while I struggle to take anything seriously that Milbury says about hockey because he once attacked a fan in the stands with his own shoe, all hockey fans in the US have taken this comment seriously because it reflects on a major problem with the NHL, it's only rightsholder in the US and the problem of hockey's popularity in the US all in one fell swoop. And if the NHL wants to break through to the casual sports fan and create more hockey fans in general in this country, comments like that one from Mike Milbury about one of the games biggest stars isn't just an impediment against that growth; it's an active deterrent.
NHL coverage in the US is in a fairly precarious place at the moment. As ESPN has gotten out of covering hockey almost entirely, there are very few places to turn to for coverage of the game outside of the NHL's only US rightsholder, NBC. And when hockey fans only hope for salvation and love of the game they so cherish comes from a network that employs talent that calls PK Subban a "clown" for dancing during warmups, what are hockey fans supposed to think about how networks view the sport they love? Sure, hot take artists are all the rage in sports television right now and maybe NBC thinks comments like this, which can be construed as thinly veiled racism, will stir the pot when everyone else is talking about LeBron, the Warriors or the Cowboys. But when hockey is such a non-factor to the casual sports fan, comments like this don't move the needle, and instead just serve to anger the small but incredibly dedicated fanbase of US hockey fans.
And the real shame of it all is that NHL Network has been improving dramatically over the past few years. The network is hiring analysts like Kevin Weekes, Mike Johnson, Ryan Whitney, John MacLean and a host of others who cover the sport in ways the US audience generally hasn't seen before. But, NHL Network's audience is still a fraction of what NBCSN draws in for its coverage, which in of itself is a fraction of the sports marketplace in general. While the casual sports fan who occasionally tunes into the Stanley Cup Playoffs isn't going to necessarily cringe at the comments Milbury has made, where are they going to go if they want more meaningful coverage of the sport and learn about these players and teams for themselves? NHL Network isn't readily available, the hot take shows on ESPN and FS1 certainly don't cover hockey (though we should be thankful for that), and it takes effort to follow this sport in a way that it doesn't for any other major sport, even soccer.
NBC Sports is the steward of hockey right now in the NHL. Since no other sports network gives barely a mention to league issues, storylines and players, NBC is the only place American fans can legally tune into on television en masse to watch games and hear commentary on the league and its issues. And when its major imprint on hockey coverage is Mike Milbury making another dumb comment, what else are hockey fans to say but, "why?" They legitimately can't go almost anywhere else to find coverage of the game, and these comments instead end up defining the only coverage of the NHL anywhere in the US to the point that the die-hards are tuning out, which isn't good for the league or the sport.
Even though the NHL has a very obvious and not subtle role in deciding who the talent is on the NHL's front facing coverage on both sides of the border, expecting them to do something here is unlikely. Therefore it is incumbent on NBC to change its ways in order to not only grow the game for the sake of growing the game, but for its own bottom line. Bringing over more names from NHL Network as analysts is a start, along with hiring an insider that can break news on their own so hockey fans can go to them instead of local sources or up to Canada for that information.
NBC's deal with the NHL lasts until 2021, and if they want to fully reap the rewards of it, and perhaps keep the league beyond then as a foundation of their cable sports network, changing their ways is a must. Become a destination for US hockey fans to find news, analysis and commentary, not just a place where they have to watch the games. Bringing on an in-house insider, minimize the voices like Mike Milbury and bringing in analysts from NHL Network is one way to start building back the trust between themselves and US hockey fans, and are steps that need to be taken.
Coverage of the NHL and hockey in the US is in a precarious place at the moment. With almost no outside network coverage, NBC is basically the only destination for fans to go to to find the coverage they crave. And when they are given nonsense by Mike Milbury, it's a slap in the face by the only network in the country that has decided the NHL is worthwhile.
For a company that produces the NFL and the Premier League so well, it still boggles the mind at how NBC can't cover hockey in the same way. And much like football and soccer fans deserve the coverage they get, hockey fans do too.
If the NHL wants to grow the game in this country at a time where it seems to be stagnating or fading from view, the league needs to pressure NBC to make changes to their coverage. Hockey fans can only go so many places to find the coverage they want and crave, so why can't they get it from the league's only stakeholder in the US?
Now while I struggle to take anything seriously that Milbury says about hockey because he once attacked a fan in the stands with his own shoe, all hockey fans in the US have taken this comment seriously because it reflects on a major problem with the NHL, it's only rightsholder in the US and the problem of hockey's popularity in the US all in one fell swoop. And if the NHL wants to break through to the casual sports fan and create more hockey fans in general in this country, comments like that one from Mike Milbury about one of the games biggest stars isn't just an impediment against that growth; it's an active deterrent.
NHL coverage in the US is in a fairly precarious place at the moment. As ESPN has gotten out of covering hockey almost entirely, there are very few places to turn to for coverage of the game outside of the NHL's only US rightsholder, NBC. And when hockey fans only hope for salvation and love of the game they so cherish comes from a network that employs talent that calls PK Subban a "clown" for dancing during warmups, what are hockey fans supposed to think about how networks view the sport they love? Sure, hot take artists are all the rage in sports television right now and maybe NBC thinks comments like this, which can be construed as thinly veiled racism, will stir the pot when everyone else is talking about LeBron, the Warriors or the Cowboys. But when hockey is such a non-factor to the casual sports fan, comments like this don't move the needle, and instead just serve to anger the small but incredibly dedicated fanbase of US hockey fans.
And the real shame of it all is that NHL Network has been improving dramatically over the past few years. The network is hiring analysts like Kevin Weekes, Mike Johnson, Ryan Whitney, John MacLean and a host of others who cover the sport in ways the US audience generally hasn't seen before. But, NHL Network's audience is still a fraction of what NBCSN draws in for its coverage, which in of itself is a fraction of the sports marketplace in general. While the casual sports fan who occasionally tunes into the Stanley Cup Playoffs isn't going to necessarily cringe at the comments Milbury has made, where are they going to go if they want more meaningful coverage of the sport and learn about these players and teams for themselves? NHL Network isn't readily available, the hot take shows on ESPN and FS1 certainly don't cover hockey (though we should be thankful for that), and it takes effort to follow this sport in a way that it doesn't for any other major sport, even soccer.
NBC Sports is the steward of hockey right now in the NHL. Since no other sports network gives barely a mention to league issues, storylines and players, NBC is the only place American fans can legally tune into on television en masse to watch games and hear commentary on the league and its issues. And when its major imprint on hockey coverage is Mike Milbury making another dumb comment, what else are hockey fans to say but, "why?" They legitimately can't go almost anywhere else to find coverage of the game, and these comments instead end up defining the only coverage of the NHL anywhere in the US to the point that the die-hards are tuning out, which isn't good for the league or the sport.
Even though the NHL has a very obvious and not subtle role in deciding who the talent is on the NHL's front facing coverage on both sides of the border, expecting them to do something here is unlikely. Therefore it is incumbent on NBC to change its ways in order to not only grow the game for the sake of growing the game, but for its own bottom line. Bringing over more names from NHL Network as analysts is a start, along with hiring an insider that can break news on their own so hockey fans can go to them instead of local sources or up to Canada for that information.
NBC's deal with the NHL lasts until 2021, and if they want to fully reap the rewards of it, and perhaps keep the league beyond then as a foundation of their cable sports network, changing their ways is a must. Become a destination for US hockey fans to find news, analysis and commentary, not just a place where they have to watch the games. Bringing on an in-house insider, minimize the voices like Mike Milbury and bringing in analysts from NHL Network is one way to start building back the trust between themselves and US hockey fans, and are steps that need to be taken.
Coverage of the NHL and hockey in the US is in a precarious place at the moment. With almost no outside network coverage, NBC is basically the only destination for fans to go to to find the coverage they crave. And when they are given nonsense by Mike Milbury, it's a slap in the face by the only network in the country that has decided the NHL is worthwhile.
For a company that produces the NFL and the Premier League so well, it still boggles the mind at how NBC can't cover hockey in the same way. And much like football and soccer fans deserve the coverage they get, hockey fans do too.
If the NHL wants to grow the game in this country at a time where it seems to be stagnating or fading from view, the league needs to pressure NBC to make changes to their coverage. Hockey fans can only go so many places to find the coverage they want and crave, so why can't they get it from the league's only stakeholder in the US?
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