Time for the ritual humiliating of myself by reviewing my season predictions for the sports I cover. Last year, my MLB regular season predictions were pretty good, but my playoff predictions were better. We'll check playoff predictions from the preseason ones and the upcoming predictions at the end of the month, but for today it's time to check standings and award predictions. This won't go well.
NL East: I at least predicted the Marlins would be 5th, but vastly overrated the Nationals and underrated the Braves. Seems about right.
NL Central: I at least got the Reds and Cardinals close, but the Reds didn't eventually take the division as I expected. The Cardinals won the division, which didn't really surprise me, but I thought injuries would take more of a toll. I also overrated Milwaukee, and underrated the Pirates, but I'm so happy they finally broke their playoff jinx.
NL West: The Giants really surprised me in how far they fell off from their World Series form, and it was going to be a disaster for awhile for the Dodgers before they hit their stride.
AL East: Oh boy, this one didn't go well. I did correctly predict the Yankees would miss the playoffs, but again was duped by overrating a team that spent gobs of money in Toronto. The Red Sox were also totally underrated, and the Orioles' regression to the mean was at least somewhat founded.
AL Central: Hooray! I predicted a division winner correctly! But the Indians performed way better than I thought they would, and the White Sox were incredibly bad. At least I got one division right.
AL West: I've now learned my lesson. I will never believe in the Angels to do anything. This is 2 years running that their failures have been spectacular. It's good to see the A's winning the division again, proving that spending money to win means very little. I had the Rangers struggling a bit more, but they made it to a game 163, so close enough.
Award Predictions:
NL MVP: Joey Votto- He was good, but nowhere near NL MVP good. Andrew McCutchen probably takes this one.
AL MVP: Mike Trout- All around solid, but you can't be a MVP on a team who doesn't play any meaningful games from late May on. Miguel Cabrera walks away with this one easy.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw- Exactly right here. At least there's one.
AL Cy Young: Felxi Hernandez- Not even close. Max Scherzer probably takes this one, with his 21-3 record over Hisashi Iwakuma, who was better with the advanced stats.
NL Rookie of the Year: Oscar Tavares- Yeah, these are more crapshoots than not, and the NL had some amazing rookies this year. I bet Yasiel Puig takes it, despite tailing off towards the end of the year, and Jose Fernandez was awesome too.
AL Rookie of the Year: Jurickson Profar- Jose Iglesias was better at his position for the Tigers, and Wil Myers went on that midseason tear as well.
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy- Nope. Clint Hurdle wins by a landslide.
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon- He was good, but John Farrell should win this one.
My World Series prediction was Nationals-Tigers, so at least there's one team with a chance. Overall, my season predictions were pretty bad. Let's hope the playoffs go better.
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Monday, September 30, 2013
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
2013 Week 4 Fantasy Advice
So after this week's games are done, one quarter of the NFL season will have passed us by. Seems like it started just yesterday, and for many teams they're wishing it started today, and my fantasy team is one of them. Hopefully I start following my own advice better this week.
Byes: CAR, GB
Who to Start:
QB Robert Griffin III (WSH) vs. OAK: Despite the fact that his team is terrible, RG3 really hasn't been. He's been solid, if unspectacular. Luckily for him, the Raiders are up next, which means he should be in for better days since the Raiders secondary is injured... and bad.
RB DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. SD: Murray put up very good numbers against the Rams last week, and those numbers should continue for him against the Chargers who are 28th against the run.
WR Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. JAX: Other than the incredibly obvious, Wayne has always played well against the Jags despite not scoring TD's against them in his last 6 tries. I'd wager that probably changes on Sunday.
WR Eric Decker (DEN) vs. PHI: Any receiver going up against the Eagles D at this point is a must start, but Decker is starting to reap some of the many rewards of having Peyton Manning start for you at QB lately that had been going elsewhere. Good sign.
TE Tony Gonzalez (ATL) vs. NE: Yes the Pats have defended well against Tight Ends in the first 3 weeks, but remember who they played against. Gonzalez is also a good bet at home too, and the Pats D hasn't yet been tested like it will be at the Georgia Dome Sunday Night.
DEF Kansas City (KC) vs. NYG: Justin Houston has 7.5 sacks already, and now he gets to face the Giants who gave up 7 sacks against Carolina last week. Also, the Giants are a turnover machine at this point, so the Chiefs D is now pretty much a must start.
Who to Sit:
QB Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. SEA: Unless the Texans get torched (which they well might), the Seahawks defense is very difficult to gather any sort of fantasy success against. Schaub himself hasn't even been that good in the first 3 games, meaning he's almost cannon fodder against Seattle.
RB C.J Spiller (BUF) vs. BAL: He's nursing a sore quad muscle, which couples with the fact he's going up against the resurgent Ravens defense, means he's a risky fantasy play this week.
WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. PIT London: He's now a honorary sit every week because not only is Christian Ponder bad, he's now going up against Ike Taylor this week. It will not be a (insert London joke here) good week for Jennings.
WR Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. TEN: He's back... sort of, but can you trust him against a Titans defense that has played well, if not above their heads in the first 3 games? Geno Smith wasn't great in his first road game, and he might struggle with this one too.
TE Zach Miller (SEA) vs. HOU: Sure he caught 2 TD's last week, but those were his only 2 catches. The Texans D pretty effectively neutralizes opposing TE's, so starting him is probably not wise.
DEF New York Giants vs. KC: Despite my apathy towards the Chiefs' offense, the Giants D has been pretty bad in the first 3 weeks of the season. This game will not hurt, nor help matters.
3 Super Sleepers:
QB Terrelle Pryor (OAK) vs. WSH: He's been genuinely impressive with both his arm and legs to start the season off, and this week he plays against the dreadful Redskins D which has been torched 3 straight weeks. He's a good starter in 2 QB leagues.
RB Trent Richardson (IND) vs. JAX: I don't know if he's really a sleeper, but he only had 13 carries for 35 yards last week. He'll probably see more carries this week, and the Jags have been dreadful against the run. Maybe not a super-sleeper, but certainly one to watch.
DEF Arizona vs. TB: This could easily go the other way as well, but with Mike Glennon starting (and being a bit of an unknown quantity), the Cardinals D could be in for a big day, despite not having a particularly good start to the season.
Buyer Beware:
DEF Chicago vs. DET: It's rare that a defense goes here, but the Bears D has been very good the first 3 weeks, but weird things happen at Ford Field to good teams, and Matt Stafford can pick opponents apart there too. If you have a better option, it can't hurt to bench these guys.
Good Luck in Week 4!
Byes: CAR, GB
Who to Start:
QB Robert Griffin III (WSH) vs. OAK: Despite the fact that his team is terrible, RG3 really hasn't been. He's been solid, if unspectacular. Luckily for him, the Raiders are up next, which means he should be in for better days since the Raiders secondary is injured... and bad.
RB DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. SD: Murray put up very good numbers against the Rams last week, and those numbers should continue for him against the Chargers who are 28th against the run.
WR Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. JAX: Other than the incredibly obvious, Wayne has always played well against the Jags despite not scoring TD's against them in his last 6 tries. I'd wager that probably changes on Sunday.
WR Eric Decker (DEN) vs. PHI: Any receiver going up against the Eagles D at this point is a must start, but Decker is starting to reap some of the many rewards of having Peyton Manning start for you at QB lately that had been going elsewhere. Good sign.
TE Tony Gonzalez (ATL) vs. NE: Yes the Pats have defended well against Tight Ends in the first 3 weeks, but remember who they played against. Gonzalez is also a good bet at home too, and the Pats D hasn't yet been tested like it will be at the Georgia Dome Sunday Night.
DEF Kansas City (KC) vs. NYG: Justin Houston has 7.5 sacks already, and now he gets to face the Giants who gave up 7 sacks against Carolina last week. Also, the Giants are a turnover machine at this point, so the Chiefs D is now pretty much a must start.
Who to Sit:
QB Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. SEA: Unless the Texans get torched (which they well might), the Seahawks defense is very difficult to gather any sort of fantasy success against. Schaub himself hasn't even been that good in the first 3 games, meaning he's almost cannon fodder against Seattle.
RB C.J Spiller (BUF) vs. BAL: He's nursing a sore quad muscle, which couples with the fact he's going up against the resurgent Ravens defense, means he's a risky fantasy play this week.
WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. PIT London: He's now a honorary sit every week because not only is Christian Ponder bad, he's now going up against Ike Taylor this week. It will not be a (insert London joke here) good week for Jennings.
WR Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. TEN: He's back... sort of, but can you trust him against a Titans defense that has played well, if not above their heads in the first 3 games? Geno Smith wasn't great in his first road game, and he might struggle with this one too.
TE Zach Miller (SEA) vs. HOU: Sure he caught 2 TD's last week, but those were his only 2 catches. The Texans D pretty effectively neutralizes opposing TE's, so starting him is probably not wise.
DEF New York Giants vs. KC: Despite my apathy towards the Chiefs' offense, the Giants D has been pretty bad in the first 3 weeks of the season. This game will not hurt, nor help matters.
3 Super Sleepers:
QB Terrelle Pryor (OAK) vs. WSH: He's been genuinely impressive with both his arm and legs to start the season off, and this week he plays against the dreadful Redskins D which has been torched 3 straight weeks. He's a good starter in 2 QB leagues.
RB Trent Richardson (IND) vs. JAX: I don't know if he's really a sleeper, but he only had 13 carries for 35 yards last week. He'll probably see more carries this week, and the Jags have been dreadful against the run. Maybe not a super-sleeper, but certainly one to watch.
DEF Arizona vs. TB: This could easily go the other way as well, but with Mike Glennon starting (and being a bit of an unknown quantity), the Cardinals D could be in for a big day, despite not having a particularly good start to the season.
Buyer Beware:
DEF Chicago vs. DET: It's rare that a defense goes here, but the Bears D has been very good the first 3 weeks, but weird things happen at Ford Field to good teams, and Matt Stafford can pick opponents apart there too. If you have a better option, it can't hurt to bench these guys.
Good Luck in Week 4!
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
2013 Week 3 Fantasy Advice
Yes Jim Irsay... I am sitting down.
P.S: I won't be mentioning any Seahawks this week because that would be way too obvious.
Who to Start:
QB Matt Stafford (DET) vs. WSH: As per usual, he's thrown for buckets of yards in the first two games (635 to be exact), and he'll probably have another big day against a Redskins secondary that has proven to be nothing less than a sieve in their first two games.
RB Frank Gore (SF) vs. IND: Although all the attention will be on the RB wearing white not red on Sunday, the one wearing red will have far more success. The Colts defense has struggled in their first two games, especially against the run, and that will probably continue against Frank Gore who needs a bounce back week.
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. PHI THU: He's not done all that much in the first two games, but against the Eagles Swiss cheese defense, he'll probably fare much better. Andy Reid already throws the ball a ton, and when he sees what's happened to his former team, his eyes will light up.
TE Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. NYG: Whether Ron Riviera is afraid to take a chance or not, Greg Olsen should have a big game against a Giants defense that has not defended Tight Ends particularly well in the last 2 games.
DEF Minnesota vs. CLE: Now that Brian Hoyer is starting AND Trent Richardson is now a Colt, everybody playing the Browns have to now be licking their chops. Them and the Jaguars will engage in a tanking contest for the ages this season.
Who to Sit:
QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. PIT: He still turns the ball over a ton, and despite the fact that the Steelers are 0-2 (I believe they'll be 0-3), their D is still a solid unit. They're depleted, but still hungry. They'll feast on Cutler's mistakes.
RB David Wilson (NYG) vs. CAR: He's now sharing carries with Brandon Jacobs in the Giants backfield, further depleting his already diminished fantasy value, and the Panthers front 7 is actually pretty good. He's going to have some tough sledding on Sunday.
WR Roddy White (ATL) vs. MIA: A permanent fixture in this spot now, it seems. His ankle is still ailing him, and now he's going up against a very good Dolphins secondary, which won't make things any better.
WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. CLE: My skepticism of Christian Ponder aside, no one who matches up against Joe Haden wins, despite the rest of the Browns being awful. He'll struggle, despite the team probably playing well otherwise.
TE Charles Clay (MIA) vs. ATL: The hot waiver-wire pickup after Week 2 needs a few more games to prove that he's a legitimate fantasy starter at the position, and against Atlanta I don't think he's going to prove much, so back off him for now.
DEF Cincinnati vs. GB: Yes the Bengals have one of the best fantasy defenses in football, yet when anyone goes up against Green Bay, they go down a peg. The Bengals are next up for that onslaught this week.
3 Super Sleepers:
RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs. OAK MON: Even though predicting who will end up on the right side of the Broncos RB carousel when it stops is hard to predict, but Moreno is the guy right now, and the Raiders aren't the best defensive team, irrespective of last week.
WR Tavon Austin (STL) vs. DAL: The Cowboys secondary hasn't been the best this season, and Tavon Austin, who has been relatively quiet in the first two games, will likely be the beneficiary of that.
DEF Buffalo vs. NYJ: Geno Smith might turn out to be good, but at the moment the Bills defense might be a deep sleeper for those who need defensive options right now since the Jets offense has scored only 27 in 2 games.
Buyer Beware:
QB Tom Brady (NE) vs. TB: Do you have better options available? Then you might want to exercise them this Sunday. Brady might get Gronk back, but the Bucs D has actually been solid despite hilarious end of game gaffes. Keep that in mind for Sunday.
Good Luck in Week 3!
P.S: I won't be mentioning any Seahawks this week because that would be way too obvious.
Who to Start:
QB Matt Stafford (DET) vs. WSH: As per usual, he's thrown for buckets of yards in the first two games (635 to be exact), and he'll probably have another big day against a Redskins secondary that has proven to be nothing less than a sieve in their first two games.
RB Frank Gore (SF) vs. IND: Although all the attention will be on the RB wearing white not red on Sunday, the one wearing red will have far more success. The Colts defense has struggled in their first two games, especially against the run, and that will probably continue against Frank Gore who needs a bounce back week.
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. PHI THU: He's not done all that much in the first two games, but against the Eagles Swiss cheese defense, he'll probably fare much better. Andy Reid already throws the ball a ton, and when he sees what's happened to his former team, his eyes will light up.
TE Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. NYG: Whether Ron Riviera is afraid to take a chance or not, Greg Olsen should have a big game against a Giants defense that has not defended Tight Ends particularly well in the last 2 games.
DEF Minnesota vs. CLE: Now that Brian Hoyer is starting AND Trent Richardson is now a Colt, everybody playing the Browns have to now be licking their chops. Them and the Jaguars will engage in a tanking contest for the ages this season.
Who to Sit:
QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. PIT: He still turns the ball over a ton, and despite the fact that the Steelers are 0-2 (I believe they'll be 0-3), their D is still a solid unit. They're depleted, but still hungry. They'll feast on Cutler's mistakes.
RB David Wilson (NYG) vs. CAR: He's now sharing carries with Brandon Jacobs in the Giants backfield, further depleting his already diminished fantasy value, and the Panthers front 7 is actually pretty good. He's going to have some tough sledding on Sunday.
WR Roddy White (ATL) vs. MIA: A permanent fixture in this spot now, it seems. His ankle is still ailing him, and now he's going up against a very good Dolphins secondary, which won't make things any better.
WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. CLE: My skepticism of Christian Ponder aside, no one who matches up against Joe Haden wins, despite the rest of the Browns being awful. He'll struggle, despite the team probably playing well otherwise.
TE Charles Clay (MIA) vs. ATL: The hot waiver-wire pickup after Week 2 needs a few more games to prove that he's a legitimate fantasy starter at the position, and against Atlanta I don't think he's going to prove much, so back off him for now.
DEF Cincinnati vs. GB: Yes the Bengals have one of the best fantasy defenses in football, yet when anyone goes up against Green Bay, they go down a peg. The Bengals are next up for that onslaught this week.
3 Super Sleepers:
RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs. OAK MON: Even though predicting who will end up on the right side of the Broncos RB carousel when it stops is hard to predict, but Moreno is the guy right now, and the Raiders aren't the best defensive team, irrespective of last week.
WR Tavon Austin (STL) vs. DAL: The Cowboys secondary hasn't been the best this season, and Tavon Austin, who has been relatively quiet in the first two games, will likely be the beneficiary of that.
DEF Buffalo vs. NYJ: Geno Smith might turn out to be good, but at the moment the Bills defense might be a deep sleeper for those who need defensive options right now since the Jets offense has scored only 27 in 2 games.
Buyer Beware:
QB Tom Brady (NE) vs. TB: Do you have better options available? Then you might want to exercise them this Sunday. Brady might get Gronk back, but the Bucs D has actually been solid despite hilarious end of game gaffes. Keep that in mind for Sunday.
Good Luck in Week 3!
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
2013-14 UEFA Champions League Group Stage Predictions (Plus eventual Champ)
Time now to predict the Group Stages of the Champions League, including point predictions and a little snippet on each group. It figures to be one of the most interesting competitions in years, so let's get right into it.
Group A:
1) Manchester United 2) Shaktar Donetsk 3) Real Sociedad 4) Bayer Leverkusen
--> This isn't the group of death by any means, but it's also nowhere near simple to figure out. United are the best team in the group, but none of the other teams are any slouches and should give the Red Devils trouble. Shaktar is a veteran team in the competition, and their Brazilian contingent as well as manager Mircea Lucescu give them an advantage. Sociedad are new to the stage, but they can challenge with players like Seferovic, Griezmann, and Vela. Bayer were 3rd in the Bundesliga for a reason, so they're not easy to count out either.
Group B:
1) Real Madrid 2) Juventus 3) Galatasaray 4) Copenhagen
--> Copenhagen are sacrificial lambs for the other 3 squads, but this is going to provide a good litmus test for both Real and Juve to see where each stand at this early point of the season. Juve are ahead of schedule in Europe, and Real have the expectations of La Decima staring them in the face. That won't affect them in the group stages so much as it will later, but it will be interesting to see how the pieces fit for Ancelotti in this competition.
Group C:
1) PSG 2) Benfica 3) Anderlecht 4) Olympiacos
--> What has been called a pretty dull group on paper does have some interesting features underneath. PSG with all of their flashy signings including Edinson Cavani will once again try to prove their mettle on the European stage, which is never easy. Benfica have a tricky young squad that will be a tough out for anyone, even if it inevitably is a shop window for these players, and Anderlecht are in a broadly similar position with players like Mitrovic, Acheampong, and Najar. Olympiacos are the last team of a dying breed of Greek teams competitive on the European stage, which is sad.
Group D:
1) Bayern Munich 2) Manchester City 3) CSKA Moscow 4) Viktoria Plzen
The Champions of Europe have what might be described as a favorable draw, despite the appearance of Manchester City in this group. Moscow aren't exactly world beaters, but they won't be easy to fell either. Manchester City finally avoid the group of death, and with Manuel Pellegrini's pedigree in Europe, expectations are high for a team that has gone out the last 2 years in the group stage. Plzen will be tough to beat at home, but away they will be easy opposition. This group will be must see TV when Bayern and City clash.
Group E:
1) Chelsea 2) Schalke 3) Basel 4) Steaua Bucharest
--> Jose Mourinho's return to the Bridge brings him a fairly laughable group, even if it does include 2 teams Chelsea felled on their way to the Europa League crown a season ago. They will be favored in every single match they play, and for good reason. Schalke have a squad comprised of interesting players like Draxler, Meyer, Szalai, and Kevin Prince-Boateng, but one that hasn't totally put it together yet. Maybe the most interesting thing about them will be when Jermaine Jones gets his first stupid booking. Basel will be a tough out as per usual, but don't have enough to beat the big boys, and Steaua will be a tough name to pronounce, and that's about it.
Group F:
1) Borussia Dortmund 2) Arsenal 3) Napoli 4) Marseille
Now this is truly the Group of Death. I could probably write a thesis paper on the matchups and storylines in this group, but I'll try to keep it short. Dortmund are red hot in the Bundesliga right now, and they've not missed a beat since Mario Gotze left for (greener) Bavarian pastures. Their new pieces have fit in perfectly to Jurgen Klopp's side, and last year's runners-up will likely prove a lot of doubters wrong again. Now onto those Gunners... without Mesut Ozil they probably wouldn't have made the knockout stages, but with him, they certainly can. Their depth is still a major concern, but they look too good right now with the starting XI to not make the knockout stages, even at the expense of a team like Napoli. This side is the genuine article under Rafa Benitez, and with their strength in attack they will be hard to knock out (plus I can't wait to see the chants towards Gonzalo Higuain from the Arsenal fans at the Emirates). Don't count out Marseille either. With young players like Dmitri Payet and Florian Thauvin, they will be no slouch against anyone, especially at the usually fearsome Stade Velodrome.
Group G:
1) Atletico Madrid 2) Porto 3) Zenit 4) Austria Wien
This is the group that is the dull apple amongst the many bright ones. Porto and Atleti are both class squads, and will both likely not face too much trouble on their way to the knockout stages. Zenit have players like Axel Witsel and Hulk that are obviously interesting, but their overall squad depth can't match that of Porto and Atleti. Austria Wien are the classic "happy to be here" team.
Group H:
1) Barcelona 2) Milan 3) Celtic 4) Ajax
Celtic got Barca again? Come on. Regardless, if Group F is the Group of Death, H is a close second. Barca are always fearsome, and will probably head the group again. Milan are in a bit of a rut right now, but they always seem to play some of their best football against big teams at San Siro, so that will probably happen again (and I want to see Tiziano Crudeli scream some more). Celtic once again get a brutal draw, but that doesn't mean they can't scalp some points off the big boys, which they probably will. Ajax are always tough, but their depletion rate is too steep to compete with the might of the Blaugrana and Rossoneri, and with the sheer will of Celtic.
Champion: Borussia Dortmund. They've looked like the best team in Europe so far this season, and being in the Group of Death and advancing through it will only make them stronger for the challenges ahead.
Group A:
1) Manchester United 2) Shaktar Donetsk 3) Real Sociedad 4) Bayer Leverkusen
--> This isn't the group of death by any means, but it's also nowhere near simple to figure out. United are the best team in the group, but none of the other teams are any slouches and should give the Red Devils trouble. Shaktar is a veteran team in the competition, and their Brazilian contingent as well as manager Mircea Lucescu give them an advantage. Sociedad are new to the stage, but they can challenge with players like Seferovic, Griezmann, and Vela. Bayer were 3rd in the Bundesliga for a reason, so they're not easy to count out either.
Group B:
1) Real Madrid 2) Juventus 3) Galatasaray 4) Copenhagen
--> Copenhagen are sacrificial lambs for the other 3 squads, but this is going to provide a good litmus test for both Real and Juve to see where each stand at this early point of the season. Juve are ahead of schedule in Europe, and Real have the expectations of La Decima staring them in the face. That won't affect them in the group stages so much as it will later, but it will be interesting to see how the pieces fit for Ancelotti in this competition.
Group C:
1) PSG 2) Benfica 3) Anderlecht 4) Olympiacos
--> What has been called a pretty dull group on paper does have some interesting features underneath. PSG with all of their flashy signings including Edinson Cavani will once again try to prove their mettle on the European stage, which is never easy. Benfica have a tricky young squad that will be a tough out for anyone, even if it inevitably is a shop window for these players, and Anderlecht are in a broadly similar position with players like Mitrovic, Acheampong, and Najar. Olympiacos are the last team of a dying breed of Greek teams competitive on the European stage, which is sad.
Group D:
1) Bayern Munich 2) Manchester City 3) CSKA Moscow 4) Viktoria Plzen
The Champions of Europe have what might be described as a favorable draw, despite the appearance of Manchester City in this group. Moscow aren't exactly world beaters, but they won't be easy to fell either. Manchester City finally avoid the group of death, and with Manuel Pellegrini's pedigree in Europe, expectations are high for a team that has gone out the last 2 years in the group stage. Plzen will be tough to beat at home, but away they will be easy opposition. This group will be must see TV when Bayern and City clash.
Group E:
1) Chelsea 2) Schalke 3) Basel 4) Steaua Bucharest
--> Jose Mourinho's return to the Bridge brings him a fairly laughable group, even if it does include 2 teams Chelsea felled on their way to the Europa League crown a season ago. They will be favored in every single match they play, and for good reason. Schalke have a squad comprised of interesting players like Draxler, Meyer, Szalai, and Kevin Prince-Boateng, but one that hasn't totally put it together yet. Maybe the most interesting thing about them will be when Jermaine Jones gets his first stupid booking. Basel will be a tough out as per usual, but don't have enough to beat the big boys, and Steaua will be a tough name to pronounce, and that's about it.
Group F:
1) Borussia Dortmund 2) Arsenal 3) Napoli 4) Marseille
Now this is truly the Group of Death. I could probably write a thesis paper on the matchups and storylines in this group, but I'll try to keep it short. Dortmund are red hot in the Bundesliga right now, and they've not missed a beat since Mario Gotze left for (greener) Bavarian pastures. Their new pieces have fit in perfectly to Jurgen Klopp's side, and last year's runners-up will likely prove a lot of doubters wrong again. Now onto those Gunners... without Mesut Ozil they probably wouldn't have made the knockout stages, but with him, they certainly can. Their depth is still a major concern, but they look too good right now with the starting XI to not make the knockout stages, even at the expense of a team like Napoli. This side is the genuine article under Rafa Benitez, and with their strength in attack they will be hard to knock out (plus I can't wait to see the chants towards Gonzalo Higuain from the Arsenal fans at the Emirates). Don't count out Marseille either. With young players like Dmitri Payet and Florian Thauvin, they will be no slouch against anyone, especially at the usually fearsome Stade Velodrome.
Group G:
1) Atletico Madrid 2) Porto 3) Zenit 4) Austria Wien
This is the group that is the dull apple amongst the many bright ones. Porto and Atleti are both class squads, and will both likely not face too much trouble on their way to the knockout stages. Zenit have players like Axel Witsel and Hulk that are obviously interesting, but their overall squad depth can't match that of Porto and Atleti. Austria Wien are the classic "happy to be here" team.
Group H:
1) Barcelona 2) Milan 3) Celtic 4) Ajax
Celtic got Barca again? Come on. Regardless, if Group F is the Group of Death, H is a close second. Barca are always fearsome, and will probably head the group again. Milan are in a bit of a rut right now, but they always seem to play some of their best football against big teams at San Siro, so that will probably happen again (and I want to see Tiziano Crudeli scream some more). Celtic once again get a brutal draw, but that doesn't mean they can't scalp some points off the big boys, which they probably will. Ajax are always tough, but their depletion rate is too steep to compete with the might of the Blaugrana and Rossoneri, and with the sheer will of Celtic.
Champion: Borussia Dortmund. They've looked like the best team in Europe so far this season, and being in the Group of Death and advancing through it will only make them stronger for the challenges ahead.
Another David Moyes Column
There are nearly infinite storylines going into the Champions League group stage that can be written about, such as how will the Spanish giants rebound after being embarrassed in the semifinals last year, will German teams continue to rise in stature, and will English teams rebound after a poor showing last year? Even including individual storylines, there are too many to count, but I want to focus on one. David Moyes. Yes, his story has been hammered in to death with the start of the league season, and especially after the transfer flops. But he has a chance to regain goodwill with his first foray into the Champions League group stage, but how will he deal with an entirely new challenge while having the pressure of managing Manchester United on his shoulders?
Managing in Europe is an entirely different task than managing domestically, and this is news to no one. But it might be to Moyes, whose only entries into European competitions were in the UEFA Cup/Europa League, where his teams didn't put in the most stellar performances, notwithstanding his Champions League knockout against Villarreal in 2005 before the group stage. In those trips to and from the continent, Moyes had an interesting time dealing with foreign tactics, squad rotation, which eventually led to results that could be described as anywhere from "decent" to "meh". In order to ascertain as to what Moyes might do with this new challenge of the Champions League, we first must see what he did when he last managed a team competing in Europe.
The last season David Moyes took an Everton team to Europe was 2009-10, when Everton made it to the Europa League Round of 32, only to be knocked out by Sporting Lisbon. Everton finished 8th that year while juggling this competition and domestic ones, a fall from 5th the year prior, which included them sitting 2 points above the relegation zone at Christmas. How did Moyes rotate his squad? Well he was forced to for he was dealing with a major injury crisis, including playing players like Seamus Coleman and Jose Baxter (both 17) in a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Benfica in Lisbon. Everton tried as much as they could to play a full strength squad on both fronts, but their injury crisis prevented them from fully doing so, as at one point they were dealing with 11 players injured, and had nowhere near the depth of squad that Moyes will have at his disposal today.
How did he deal tactically? Based on results, it seems pretty decently, although he faced AEK Athens and BATE Borisov 4 years ago, and will face Bayer Leverkusen, Shaktar Donetsk, and Real Sociedad this year. Once again, as it seems to be the trend, Moyes would be more hesitant to go for it against the bigger clubs like Benfica and Sporting, injury handicap aside, and this saw the Toffees score only 2 goals against the Lisbon giants while conceding 11. Of course squad depth played a role in these defeats, and having to play youth players and first teamers out of position while dealing with a major injury crisis is no easy task. So overall in this campaign, Moyes dealt quite admirably with the task of juggling 4 competitions while dealing with seemingly daily injuries, although Everton's league form improved drastically once all the other competitions were off their plate. Analysis of Moyes' other forays into the UEFA Cup will provide similar conclusions, aside from not having to deal with quite the injury crises then.
So that was Moyes then, so how about now? Well, he has far more squad depth and experience to play with now as gaffer at Manchester United, but how will he rotate the squad when he has challenges in the league to deal with as well? Will we see players like Chris Smalling, Shinji Kagawa, Chicharito, and maybe more of Moyes' prized Marouane Fellaini? Despite fixture congestion being nothing new for most of the squad, it certainly might be for Moyes, whose team is expected to win trophies and head the table at the same time, despite whether you find Manchester United's slate of opening fixtures fair or not. Moyes' insistence that he is not nervous despite rumblings of discontent among the Old Trafford faithful and his newness to the competition and the pressure might be reassuring on the level of slightly relaxed pressure from the tabloids, but we'll not know anything until we see United tackle their slipping European home form, and the somewhat daunting travel facing them in the future. Moyes assures he knows about the competition from playing in it and watching it, but managing in it is a whole different ballgame, especially pre Manchester derby approaching just after the first Bayer fixture. It's a challenge Moyes is certainly excited about, but certainly green to.
The Red Devils league form has already suffered some. They have a cup competition tie next week against Liverpool. The discontent isn't loud, but the whispers are growing to a low whine, while not annoying yet, they could be disruptive, especially if form continues to suffer. All the advice from Sir Bobby Charlton and Sir Alex is nice, but it won't matter if results don't come in, especially for a supporters base hungry for another European cup after the disappointments of the last 2 seasons. David Moyes has talked the part of being a Manchester United boss, but he hasn't quite walked the walk yet.
Maybe Champions League success will prove that he can, or the lack of it will just make the low whine a louder din.
Managing in Europe is an entirely different task than managing domestically, and this is news to no one. But it might be to Moyes, whose only entries into European competitions were in the UEFA Cup/Europa League, where his teams didn't put in the most stellar performances, notwithstanding his Champions League knockout against Villarreal in 2005 before the group stage. In those trips to and from the continent, Moyes had an interesting time dealing with foreign tactics, squad rotation, which eventually led to results that could be described as anywhere from "decent" to "meh". In order to ascertain as to what Moyes might do with this new challenge of the Champions League, we first must see what he did when he last managed a team competing in Europe.
The last season David Moyes took an Everton team to Europe was 2009-10, when Everton made it to the Europa League Round of 32, only to be knocked out by Sporting Lisbon. Everton finished 8th that year while juggling this competition and domestic ones, a fall from 5th the year prior, which included them sitting 2 points above the relegation zone at Christmas. How did Moyes rotate his squad? Well he was forced to for he was dealing with a major injury crisis, including playing players like Seamus Coleman and Jose Baxter (both 17) in a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Benfica in Lisbon. Everton tried as much as they could to play a full strength squad on both fronts, but their injury crisis prevented them from fully doing so, as at one point they were dealing with 11 players injured, and had nowhere near the depth of squad that Moyes will have at his disposal today.
How did he deal tactically? Based on results, it seems pretty decently, although he faced AEK Athens and BATE Borisov 4 years ago, and will face Bayer Leverkusen, Shaktar Donetsk, and Real Sociedad this year. Once again, as it seems to be the trend, Moyes would be more hesitant to go for it against the bigger clubs like Benfica and Sporting, injury handicap aside, and this saw the Toffees score only 2 goals against the Lisbon giants while conceding 11. Of course squad depth played a role in these defeats, and having to play youth players and first teamers out of position while dealing with a major injury crisis is no easy task. So overall in this campaign, Moyes dealt quite admirably with the task of juggling 4 competitions while dealing with seemingly daily injuries, although Everton's league form improved drastically once all the other competitions were off their plate. Analysis of Moyes' other forays into the UEFA Cup will provide similar conclusions, aside from not having to deal with quite the injury crises then.
So that was Moyes then, so how about now? Well, he has far more squad depth and experience to play with now as gaffer at Manchester United, but how will he rotate the squad when he has challenges in the league to deal with as well? Will we see players like Chris Smalling, Shinji Kagawa, Chicharito, and maybe more of Moyes' prized Marouane Fellaini? Despite fixture congestion being nothing new for most of the squad, it certainly might be for Moyes, whose team is expected to win trophies and head the table at the same time, despite whether you find Manchester United's slate of opening fixtures fair or not. Moyes' insistence that he is not nervous despite rumblings of discontent among the Old Trafford faithful and his newness to the competition and the pressure might be reassuring on the level of slightly relaxed pressure from the tabloids, but we'll not know anything until we see United tackle their slipping European home form, and the somewhat daunting travel facing them in the future. Moyes assures he knows about the competition from playing in it and watching it, but managing in it is a whole different ballgame, especially pre Manchester derby approaching just after the first Bayer fixture. It's a challenge Moyes is certainly excited about, but certainly green to.
The Red Devils league form has already suffered some. They have a cup competition tie next week against Liverpool. The discontent isn't loud, but the whispers are growing to a low whine, while not annoying yet, they could be disruptive, especially if form continues to suffer. All the advice from Sir Bobby Charlton and Sir Alex is nice, but it won't matter if results don't come in, especially for a supporters base hungry for another European cup after the disappointments of the last 2 seasons. David Moyes has talked the part of being a Manchester United boss, but he hasn't quite walked the walk yet.
Maybe Champions League success will prove that he can, or the lack of it will just make the low whine a louder din.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
2013 Week 2 Fantasy Advice
Week 1 is finished, and despite a record being broken for the amount of TD passes thrown, there are a number of teams that looked incapable of producing any offense (mine included). And with injuries already playing a major role in the proceedings, Week 2 is the first test of depth for many teams out there.
Who to Start:
QB Mike Vick (PHI) vs. SD: Pumping the brakes on Chip Kelly's speed game aside, Mike Vick is a good fantasy option again. The Chargers pass defense struggled mightily at the end of their game against the Texans, and on a short week traveling cross-country, the Eagles will pray on that.
RB Darren McFadden (OAK) vs. JAX: Although I think he won't last the entire season because he will get injured, he'll do fairly well against a banged up Jacksonville defense on Sunday. The threat of Terrelle Pryor running certainly helps.
WR Steve Smith (CAR) vs. BUF: He might have been the only Panther to have a good offensive day last week against the Seahawks, and now he gets to go up against the Bills secondary which last week gave up two TD's to Julian Edelman and whose top 2 corners are out.
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. DAL: Despite being maybe the only Chief to not look good last week, he should fare much better against the Dallas secondary which was absolutely picked apart last week despite the defense as a whole forcing 6 turnovers.
TE Owen Daniels (HOU) vs. TEN: The Titans defense was surprisingly effective last week against the Steelers, but going up against the Texans is a different task. Daniels has always done well against the Titans, and he had a huge game Monday night as well.
DEF Cincinnati vs. PIT MON: While the Bengals defense was always a good 2nd defense option for most, this week they should be starting for you. The Steelers offensive line was a sieve before the Maurkice Pouncey injury, and is now even worse without him. They gave up 5 sacks and looked pretty terrible, so the Bengals will probably feast on that. And speaking of that...
Who to Sit:
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. CIN MON: Big Ben will be under siege most of the night Monday, and while his numbers aren't usually good against the Bengals, they'll be even worse because of what I spoke of above.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) vs. OAK: Last week the Jaguars interior offensive line was a revolving door, meaning MJD got only 15 carries. Despite Chad Henne starting meaning MJD will likely get a few more carries, the interior O-Line is not only bad, but banged up. Bench him if possible.
WR Roddy White (ATL) vs. STL: Still dealing with the effects of a high-ankle sprain, White did next to nothing against the Saints last Sunday. This one figures to be no better, despite a semi-favorable matchup if he's still gimpy.
WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. CHI: His performance last week did nothing to silence doubts about his fantasy value, and going up against a far better D this week in Chicago won't help those doubts go away any time soon.
TE Dallas Clark (BAL) vs. CLE: The name makes you sing, but the hands make you swoon. Dallas Clark was targeted plenty last Thursday, but that meant little since he dropped a ton of passes. There are better tight ends out there, and ones who aren't over the hill, so start them.
DEF Washington vs. GB: Their defense, aside from the fluky backwards pass, was very bad against the Eagles. Next up... they get Green Bay! That won't make their fantasy numbers go up any higher.
3 Super Sleepers:
RB Daryl Richardson (STL) vs. ATL: I'm really hoping I'm right here (since I own him in my league), and that he performs a little better than he did last week against Arizona against a defense that is almost as sketchy against the run as New Orleans.
TE Brent Celek (PHI) vs. SD: He's not going to be targeted often, but he'll make big plays when he is. The Chargers defense gave up a ton of points to Owen Daniels on Monday, and Celek figures to benefit from the same defensive problems.
DEF Oakland vs. JAX: It's Chad Henne. Come on now.
Buyer Beware:
RB Frank Gore (SF) vs. SEA: He's never played all that well against the Seahawks in his career, and he hasn't scored many TD's against them either. They held DeAngelo Williams to 86 yards rushing, and figure to hold Gore to about the same.
Good Luck in Week 2!
Thursday, September 5, 2013
2013 NFL Season Predictions
After division picks, it's time to finally put numbers to names and predict records and the future of the NFL for one season. Here comes what are the sure to be wrong NFL season predictions:
AFC East: 1) NE 11-5 2) MIA 8-8 3) BUF 6-10 4) NYJ 4-12
AFC North: 1) BAL 12-4 2) CIN 10-6 3) PIT 8-8 4) CLE 6-10
AFC South: 1) IND 10-6 2) HOU 9-7 3) TEN 5-11 4) JAX 5-11
AFC West: 1) DEN 12-4 2) KC 7-9 3) SD 5-11 4) OAK 3-13
NFC East: 1) NYG 10-6 2) WSH 9-7 3) DAL 7-9 4) PHI 6-10
NFC North: 1) GB 11-5 2) CHI 10-6 3) MIN 8-8 4) DET 6-10
NFC South: 1) ATL 11-5 2) NO 10-6 3) CAR 8-8 4) TB 7-9
NFC West: 1) SEA 12-4 2) SF 11-5 3) STL 8-8 4) ARZ 5-11
AFC Playoff Picks:
Seeds: 1) DEN 2) BAL 3) NE 4) IND 5) CIN 6) HOU
Wild Card Round: 3) NE over 6) HOU
5) CIN over 4) IND
Divisional Round: 1) DEN over 5) CIN
2) BAL over 3) NE
AFC Championship Game: 2) BAL over 1) DEN
NFC Playoff Picks:
Seeds: 1) SEA 2) GB 3) ATL 4) NYG 5) SF 6) CHI
Wild Card Round: 3) ATL over 6) CHI
5) SF over 4) NYG
Divisional Round: 1) SEA over 5) SF
3) ATL over 2) GB
NFC Championship Game: 1) SEA over 3) ATL
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seattle over Baltimore 20-16
Award Picks:
MVP: Peyton Manning
OPOY: Calvin Johnson
DPOY: Luke Kuechly
OROY: Gio Bernard
DROY: Ziggy Ansah
Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll
AFC East: 1) NE 11-5 2) MIA 8-8 3) BUF 6-10 4) NYJ 4-12
AFC North: 1) BAL 12-4 2) CIN 10-6 3) PIT 8-8 4) CLE 6-10
AFC South: 1) IND 10-6 2) HOU 9-7 3) TEN 5-11 4) JAX 5-11
AFC West: 1) DEN 12-4 2) KC 7-9 3) SD 5-11 4) OAK 3-13
NFC East: 1) NYG 10-6 2) WSH 9-7 3) DAL 7-9 4) PHI 6-10
NFC North: 1) GB 11-5 2) CHI 10-6 3) MIN 8-8 4) DET 6-10
NFC South: 1) ATL 11-5 2) NO 10-6 3) CAR 8-8 4) TB 7-9
NFC West: 1) SEA 12-4 2) SF 11-5 3) STL 8-8 4) ARZ 5-11
AFC Playoff Picks:
Seeds: 1) DEN 2) BAL 3) NE 4) IND 5) CIN 6) HOU
Wild Card Round: 3) NE over 6) HOU
5) CIN over 4) IND
Divisional Round: 1) DEN over 5) CIN
2) BAL over 3) NE
AFC Championship Game: 2) BAL over 1) DEN
NFC Playoff Picks:
Seeds: 1) SEA 2) GB 3) ATL 4) NYG 5) SF 6) CHI
Wild Card Round: 3) ATL over 6) CHI
5) SF over 4) NYG
Divisional Round: 1) SEA over 5) SF
3) ATL over 2) GB
NFC Championship Game: 1) SEA over 3) ATL
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seattle over Baltimore 20-16
Award Picks:
MVP: Peyton Manning
OPOY: Calvin Johnson
DPOY: Luke Kuechly
OROY: Gio Bernard
DROY: Ziggy Ansah
Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll
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