Wednesday, September 25, 2013

2013 Week 4 Fantasy Advice

So after this week's games are done, one quarter of the NFL season will have passed us by. Seems like it started just yesterday, and for many teams they're wishing it started today, and my fantasy team is one of them. Hopefully I start following my own advice better this week.

Byes: CAR, GB

Who to Start:

QB Robert Griffin III (WSH) vs. OAK: Despite the fact that his team is terrible, RG3 really hasn't been. He's been solid, if unspectacular. Luckily for him, the Raiders are up next, which means he should be in for better days since the Raiders secondary is injured... and bad.

RB DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. SD: Murray put up very good numbers against the Rams last week, and those numbers should continue for him against the Chargers who are 28th against the run.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. JAX: Other than the incredibly obvious, Wayne has always played well against the Jags despite not scoring TD's against them in his last 6 tries. I'd wager that probably changes on Sunday.

WR Eric Decker (DEN) vs. PHI: Any receiver going up against the Eagles D at this point is a must start, but Decker is starting to reap some of the many rewards of having Peyton Manning start for you at QB lately that had been going elsewhere. Good sign.

TE Tony Gonzalez (ATL) vs. NE: Yes the Pats have defended well against Tight Ends in the first 3 weeks, but remember who they played against. Gonzalez is also a good bet at home too, and the Pats D hasn't yet been tested like it will be at the Georgia Dome Sunday Night.

DEF Kansas City (KC) vs. NYG: Justin Houston has 7.5 sacks already, and now he gets to face the Giants who gave up 7 sacks against Carolina last week. Also, the Giants are a turnover machine at this point, so the Chiefs D is now pretty much a must start.

Who to Sit:

QB Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. SEA: Unless the Texans get torched (which they well might), the Seahawks defense is very difficult to gather any sort of fantasy success against. Schaub himself hasn't even been that good in the first 3 games, meaning he's almost cannon fodder against Seattle.

RB C.J Spiller (BUF) vs. BAL: He's nursing a sore quad muscle, which couples with the fact he's going up against the resurgent Ravens defense, means he's a risky fantasy play this week.

WR Greg Jennings (MIN) vs. PIT London: He's now a honorary sit every week because not only is Christian Ponder bad, he's now going up against Ike Taylor this week. It will not be a (insert London joke here) good week for Jennings.

WR Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. TEN: He's back... sort of, but can you trust him against a Titans defense that has played well, if not above their heads in the first 3 games? Geno Smith wasn't great in his first road game, and he might struggle with this one too.

TE Zach Miller (SEA) vs. HOU: Sure he caught 2 TD's last week, but those were his only 2 catches. The Texans D pretty effectively neutralizes opposing TE's, so starting him is probably not wise.

DEF New York Giants vs. KC: Despite my apathy towards the Chiefs' offense, the Giants D has been pretty bad in the first 3 weeks of the season. This game will not hurt, nor help matters.

3 Super Sleepers:

QB Terrelle Pryor (OAK) vs. WSH: He's been genuinely impressive with both his arm and legs to start the season off, and this week he plays against the dreadful Redskins D which has been torched 3 straight weeks. He's a good starter in 2 QB leagues.

RB Trent Richardson (IND) vs. JAX: I don't know if he's really a sleeper, but he only had 13 carries for 35 yards last week. He'll probably see more carries this week, and the Jags have been dreadful against the run. Maybe not a super-sleeper, but certainly one to watch.

DEF Arizona vs. TB: This could easily go the other way as well, but with Mike Glennon starting (and being a bit of an unknown quantity), the Cardinals D could be in for a big day, despite not having a particularly good start to the season.

Buyer Beware:

DEF Chicago vs. DET: It's rare that a defense goes here, but the Bears D has been very good the first 3 weeks, but weird things happen at Ford Field to good teams, and Matt Stafford can pick opponents apart there too. If you have a better option, it can't hurt to bench these guys.

Good Luck in Week 4!

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