Wednesday, September 26, 2012

2012 Week 4 Fantasy Advice

I must be as good at doing these fantasy predictions as the replacement refs are at determining what simultaneous possession is. But, as the real guys come back, I hope to claw a little credibility back with this column. At least I enjoy writing it, unlike the scab refs with getting lambasted on twitter.

Byes: IND, PIT

Who to Start:

QB Peyton Manning (DEN) vs. OAK: He actually put in a decent stat line against the best defense in football last week, so how will he do against one of the league's shakiest pass defenses? Pretty well, I'd guess.

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) vs. JAX: The Jaguars have had major problems stopping the run this year without their best linebacker, Daryl Smith, in the fold, and since he will not be back on Sunday, the Law Firm should have a good day on the ground.

WR Vincent Jackson (TB) vs. WSH: The Redskins defense is pretty abysmal, and they have had some major issues defending the pass in the past 3 weeks. Josh Freeman and the Bucs pass offense had a bad week against the Cowboys, but against the polar opposite defense, they should do well.

WR Julian Edelman (NE) vs. BUF: This start is becoming more and more obvious, as he becomes the new Wes Welker for the Pats, and it does help that the Bills defense has had major issues defending the pass, and rushing the passer as well.

TE Owen Daniels (HOU) vs. TEN: He remains as one of the more underrated Tight Ends in football, and yet he's not owned in many league's I've seen. The Titans have had major issues defending the Tight End this season, allowing a high in receptions, yards, and TD's to them, so Daniels is a great start.

DEF Arizona vs. MIA: This is becoming a no-brainer as well, as the Cards continue to strut their stuff, and their defense has been the best part of the team. Now, they welcome Miami to town. That should help their numbers.

Who to Sit:

QB Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. DAL MON: The Cowboys pass defense has been very stout this year, and Jay Cutler has reverted to being Jay Cutler, despite the Bears 2-1 start. He is a major risk this week.

RB Andre Brown (NYG) vs. PHI: After his burst onto the scene last Thursday against Carolina, he will have a much tougher time sustaining that performance against a much better Eagles defense, and Ahmad Bradshaw is back as well, which will limit his carries.

WR Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. CHI MON: I guess, based on my recommendations, the MNF game this week will be a defensive slugfest. Regardless of that, Dez has been invisible in the first 3 weeks for the Cowboys, and that will continue against a very good Bears secondary.

WR Danny Amendola (STL) vs. SEA: Sit a Rams wideout, surely you jest? Amendola has been a pleasant surprise this year, but as Monday night proved, the Seahawks defense is no joke. Throwing against them might be tough for the Rams.

TE Fred Davis (WSH) vs. TB: He might have issues against a Bucs defense that has been very good at defending the Tight End this season, despite his good weekend last time out against the Bengals.

DEF New York Jets vs. SF: Since Revis island has been washed up due to an ACL tear, the Jets defense is now even less viable as a fantasy option than they were before. Add to that the fact that the 49ers don't make many mistakes on offense, the Jets D is a major risk.

3 Super Sleepers:

QB Josh Freeman (TB) vs. WSH: Yes he had a terrible week against the Cowboys last time out. But this time, he faces a Washington D that hasn't allowed fewer than 30 points in a game yet this season. He could rebound in a big way here.

RB Cedric Benson (GB) vs. NO: As has been proven over the first 3 weeks, the Saints have an iffy defense. Cedric Benson is due for a good game for the Packers, and this might finally be the one where he breaks through.

WR Malcolm Floyd (SD) vs. KC: He had a bad week against the Falcons, but he gets to face a very good opponent fantasy wise in Kansas City, who have been torn apart by 3 separate QB's already.

Buyer Beware:

QB Michael Vick (PHI) vs. NYG: He has taken a beating in the first 3 games of the season, and facing the Giants isn't likely to alleviate that. I don't have a good feeling about this game for the Eagles, and the Giants D has had 10 days to prepare for him, too.

Good luck in Week 4!

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